Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Viva la Mattner]

With the huge win today of Incentivise it rockets into favouritism for the race that stops a nation
With that let discussion begin!

Irish derby tonight - huge watch on High Definition currently at 51’s

 

[iluvparis]

High definition looks poison tonight let alone the 50s for the cup given aiden doesn’t seem to want to send any.

Incentivize will have to win to get in so the current price may be the biggest antepost poison in the history of the race.

 

[Jugada]

Incentivise is clearly the best local stayer and its wins have been very impressive but you couldn't back it at the current quote. Its basically being tipped out for a spell in July and will then need to be up and firing early in its prep to get into the race. Will be quite an effort.

Delphi is probably the horse that's in the country at the moment that I could entertain backing.

Japan is where you want to be looking so long as Covid doesn't scare them off. Unlike the Euros they get to skip the scintigraphy scan which you would think makes them more likely to come even without worrying about the possible affects the scan could have on a horses prep.

Would be just guessing at this point to what Japs are coming over but a horse like Win Kiitos i would think would be a decent chance and would go very well. Very progressive 4yo with a fast turn of foot and tactical speed but not quite at the elite level right now. Won the Meguro Kinen which gives it ballot free entry to the Caulfield Cup.

Kemari the early #1 seed from Europe with the solid Queens Vase formline and connections already signalling the Cup as a strong possibility. Didnt mind the run of Benaud out of the same race too.

Would expect Lloyd to send something down but none of his 3yos have shown anything to suggest they would be a chance. Hype probably the best chance of progressing through the grades. Interested to see how Dawn Patrol goes tonight, surely one he bought with the Cup in mind. Was 3rd to Santiago and Tiger Moth in last years Irish Derby and has been gelded since his last run

 

[dontlimitme]

montefilia just wins

 

[iluvparis]

Incentivise is clearly the best local stayer and its wins have been very impressive but you couldn't back it at the current quote. Its basically being tipped out for a spell in July and will then need to be up and firing early in its prep to get into the race. Will be quite an effort.

Delphi is probably the horse that's in the country at the moment that I could entertain backing.

Japan is where you want to be looking so long as Covid doesn't scare them off. Unlike the Euros they get to skip the scintigraphy scan which you would think makes them more likely to come even without worrying about the possible affects the scan could have on a horses prep.

Would be just guessing at this point to what Japs are coming over but a horse like Win Kiitos i would think would be a decent chance and would go very well. Very progressive 4yo with a fast turn of foot and tactical speed but not quite at the elite level right now. Won the Meguro Kinen which gives it ballot free entry to the Caulfield Cup.

Kemari the early #1 seed from Europe with the solid Queens Vase formline and connections already signalling the Cup as a strong possibility. Didnt mind the run of Benaud out of the same race too.

Would expect Lloyd to send something down but none of his 3yos have shown anything to suggest they would be a chance. Hype probably the best chance of progressing through the grades. Interested to see how Dawn Patrol goes tonight, surely one he bought with the Cup in mind. Was 3rd to Santiago and Tiger Moth in last years Irish Derby and has been gelded since his last run

Why do the Japs get to skip the scan? If that’s true it shows how laughable the policy is. Same rules should apply for all of they were fair dinkum

Incentivize will be like every off season stayer that gets hyped to the shit and does nothing in the spring. Happens every year and market completely overreacts. Remember Tom Melbourne’s albury cup and a bunch of weir horses for oz bloodstock.

 

[rank and file]

montefilia just wins

Nickajack Cave (would've won last year)
Amade (will win this year) for the quinella
Montefilia can go in for the tri

 

[iluvparis]

Basically no point discussing much until a horse physically gets on the plane. If you back a raider at less than 50s before it’s on the plane you have unders. No matter what

 

[iluvparis]

Has N Cave even been cleared to run in Victoria yet?

Not that it matters. Has absolutely none

 

[Jugada]

Why do the Japs get to skip the scan? If that’s true it shows how laughable the policy is. Same rules should apply for all of they were fair dinkum

Incentivize will be like every off season stayer that gets hyped to the sh*t and does nothing in the spring. Happens every year and market completely overreacts. Remember Tom Melbourne’s albury cup and a bunch of weir horses for oz bloodstock.

Some Japanese law from around the war making it illegal to use radioactive chemicals. They're basically on the same footing as the locals where a scan could be requested once here but not like the Euros who have to do it before leaving if they want to come.

 

[Jugada]

Has N Cave even been cleared to run in Victoria yet?

Not that it matters. Has absolutely none

Yep cleared before the AR but then Moods pulled up stumps and put him in the paddock anyway

 

[iluvparis]

Some Japanese law from around the war making it illegal to use radioactive chemicals. They're basically on the same footing as the locals where a scan could be requested once here but not like the Euros who have to do it before leaving if they want to come.

Farcical.

 

[Jugada]

Presume people are having a solid laugh tipping up a spring 3yo filly who won nothing last prep amongst a dog shit bunch of 3yos?

 

[iluvparis]

Presume people are having a solid laugh tipping up a spring 3yo filly who won nothing last prep amongst a dog sh*t bunch of 3yos?

Was a certainty beat at every start!!!!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Would love to see the Australian bred stand up. Will be intriguing where he fits in.

 

[54Dogs]

Incentivise is clearly the best local stayer and its wins have been very impressive but you couldn't back it at the current quote. Its basically being tipped out for a spell in July and will then need to be up and firing early in its prep to get into the race. Will be quite an effort.

I would be taking ROF before Incentivise on exposed form

 

[iluvparis]

I would be taking ROF before Incentivise on exposed form

Lol its a totally laughable call from Jugs.

Would have thought Arc moral Verry Elleegant might be Australia's best stayer no?

 

[Jugada]

I would be taking ROF before Incentivise on exposed form

Nah not for mine. Listed AR no stronger than the G3 on the weekend and this guy is on a massive upwards spiral basically off his first prep

 

[54Dogs]

Nah not for mine. Listed AR no stronger than the G3 on the weekend and this guy is on a massive upwards spiral basically off his first prep

The AR was quite a bit stronger imo. She put 5 on GP which won by 4 next start, put 6 on MB which had been placed in the Sydney Cup and Tancred at it's previous 2 and put 7 on Persan. No form near that level in yesterdays race.

 

[iluvparis]

There are 4 or 5 horses that have won staying races by absolute panels in the last 5-6 weeks - suggests to me the form needs to be taken with ludicrous amounts of caution going forward and until proven otherwise.

FFS South Pacific won by panels just last weekend

 

[Jugada]

The AR was quite a bit stronger imo. She put 5 on GP which won by 4 next start, put 6 on MB which had been placed in the Sydney Cup and Tancred at it's previous 2 and put 7 on Persan. No form near that level in yesterdays race.

MB also beat it home comfortably in the Sydney Cup so fair to say she underperformed significantly. Persan is gone at the game.

Think there is very little between between those sort of races and If it was just a one off win like the others I'd agree but when you go 7L, 9L, 9L and 12L I'm more than happy to have it on top

 

[iluvparis]

MB also beat it home comfortably in the Sydney Cup so fair to say she underperformed significantly. Persan is gone at the game.

Think there is very little between between those sort of races and If it was just a one off win like the others I'd agree but when you go 7L, 9L, 9L and 12L I'm more than happy to have it on top

Half the field that would line up in a Melbourne Cup would do the same against the same quality he faced in basically all those races. Quick Thinker beat everything except Rondinella (including Zaaki's nemesis Paths of Glory) 6 a couple of starts ago.

This will be the biggest antepost poison in the history of the great race and is even worse than the Surprise Baby fappery that was going on last year. Stunned everyone is falling for it (then again I'm not really as the D grade Winter form gets talked up every year as I've already pointed out before coming to absolutely nothing).

Both Tom M and Master Of Wine are two excellent recent examples of horses who bolted in multiple races by big margins and were slammed into Cup favoritism - neither won a race the subsequent spring

 

[Jugada]

Half the field that would line up in a Melbourne Cup would do the same against the same quality he faced in basically all those races. Quick Thinker beat everything except Rondinella (including Zaaki's nemesis Paths of Glory) 6 a couple of starts ago.

This will be the biggest antepost poison in the history of the great race and is even worse than the Surprise Baby fappery that was going on last year. Stunned everyone is falling for it (then again I'm not really as the D grade Winter form gets talked up every year as I've already pointed out before coming to absolutely nothing).

Both Tom M and Master Of Wine are two excellent recent examples of horses who bolted in multiple races by big margins and were slammed into Cup favoritism - neither won a race the subsequent spring

Maybe they could do it once but I doubt they would be backing it up by huge margins start after start.

I don't think its a betting proposition for the Cup but if we lined up all our best local stayers over 2800-3000m in a fortnight I'd mark him as favourite.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah but that’s a pointless analogy as he will have to win his way in in September

 

[Jugada]

My point wasn't that he was a Cup bet though. Just that he is the best local stayer at the moment

 

[iluvparis]

My point wasn't that he was a Cup bet though. Just that he is the best local stayer at the moment

Lol better than VE. Plz