Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

Who wins?

  • 6 – THE CHOSEN ONE (5)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8 – OCEAN BILLY (13)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 11 – KNIGHTS ORDER (9)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 13 – CARIF (8)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 17 – MIAMI BOUND (17)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 18 – PORT GUILLAUME (23)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 19 – SHE’S IDEEL (20)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 20 – FUTURE SCORE (15)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    87
  • Poll closed .

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
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Mrs America on top at ascot but huge unders. Patchwork a genuine lay. Wide open race. Magnificent andy the drifter but I don't know why he should be firm enough at the price. Port Beach/ Jay Dee good too.
 

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year of the cat

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 27, 2006
22,554
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Melbourne
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With the wisdom of hindsight was Incentivise a year too early? CC was her target race this year.

Also wonder if he had VE’s run would he have let down as well as the mare? Interesting that pre race Moody said that IC was looking back to himself (or something similar) over the past week. I raised an eyebrow to that (though didn’t stop me having every multi into it!) Clearly the CC took some time to recover from.
 
Last edited:

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
With the wisdom of hindsight was Incentivise a year too early? CC was her target race this year.

Also wonder if she had VE’s run would he have let down as well as the mare? Interesting that pre race Moody said that IC was looking back to himself (or something similar) over the past week. I raised an eyebrow to that (though didn’t stop me having every multi into it!) Clearly the CC took some time to recover from.
I don't think so. Probably just has not stayed. Beaten by better horse on the day over 3200.

Will clean up over 2000-2400 so no need to even find out.
 

Joker91

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 3, 2012
5,463
7,226
Tigerland
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Liverpool
With the wisdom of hindsight was Incentivise a year too early? CC was her target race this year.

Also wonder if she had VE’s run would he have let down as well as the mare? Interesting that pre race Moody said that IC was looking back to himself (or something similar) over the past week. I raised an eyebrow to that (though didn’t stop me having every multi into it!) Clearly the CC took some time to recover from.
1. Incentivise is a HE.
2. No it wasn’t a year too early. Who knows what can happen in 12 months. He has ran absolutely enormous and lost to a champion who had a much easier run in transit.
 

Joker91

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 3, 2012
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I don't think so. Probably just has not stayed. Beaten by better horse on the day over 3200.

Will clean up over 2000-2400 so no need to even find out.
He stayed. Not sure how you can say he didn’t. Most other horses on speed lost by 25+ lengths. Floating artist the exception but he had 50kg.
 

year of the cat

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 27, 2006
22,554
29,830
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
I don't think so. Probably just has not stayed. Beaten by better horse on the day over 3200.

Will clean up over 2000-2400 so no need to even find out.
He beat some handy stayers off a toughish run so not sure I agree that “he didn’t stay”. Don’t think he’ll be back next year looking for a softer run?

I agree he looks more like a 2000-2400m horse though.
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
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Not too sure you can argue he didn’t stay

How he held on for second off that horrendous run is beyond me

Had every right to stop at the 200 and finish mid field
Staying is a tough one.

Can be interpreted as didn't stay to the same level at 2400m.

You don't often get a horse not staying resulting in compounding from the 400. Normally that's an underlying issue. I think he's either regressed or held and not stayed. Both valid points but I think the not stay to same level is the logical explanation over regression.

For lack of of a better example, Western Empire didn't stay 2400m in the derby and still won.
 

Gavin Excell

Hall of Famer
Apr 22, 2007
35,843
40,971
Bentleigh
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Geelong
All up it was a great result for the race. Perhaps no great surprise. A pretty shallow field and history will show the class were at the point end.
Yeah possibly but another viewpoint is
Winner is is star - 10 group 1s
Second is a freak- smashing Caulfield Cup winner from a wfa program
Third is a European heavy matching it with Stradivarius

Gap to 4th

It stands up
 

Gavin Excell

Hall of Famer
Apr 22, 2007
35,843
40,971
Bentleigh
AFL Club
Geelong
Staying is a tough one.

Can be interpreted as didn't stay to the same level at 2400m.

You don't often get a horse not staying resulting in compounding from the 400. Normally that's an underlying issue. I think he's either regressed or held and not stayed. Both valid points but I think the not stay to same level is the logical explanation over regression.

For lack of of a better example, Western Empire didn't stay 2400m in the derby and still won.
Ha
Western Empire

Jeezus surely you need.a better example
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,185
36,200
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All up it was a great result for the race. Perhaps no great surprise. A pretty shallow field and history will show the class were at the point end.
Yes thankfully the class did rise to the top but the depth was horrendous as evidenced in the truly ludicrous beaten margins outside the top 4. And thus the race was shallow while also producing a top class result.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Speaking of cannot stay. If you missed Hardly Ever plunge can probably jump on Buzzoom in hope it gets 1400. Both look class options but mark Pike $2.50.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Suggest mahogany may be an example
Won derby but wasn't its trip
Oaks is a race that the.2400m seemingly prevents class from prevailing if last few years a guide (vic)
Mosheen probably last that completely classed it from memory.

Western Empire only in my brain from reading rating review on dot com and reviewing race on sunday.
 

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