Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Ah12]

Quotes


“I’d say it’s not off the agenda but it’s not a part of my thought process at the moment,” Moody said of the Cox Plate, in which he is a 15 chance.

“The Caulfield Cup is front and centre and he will run in that by hook or by crook. Does he then then back up in the Cox Plate? It’s a big call but I wouldn’t say no.”

“I know he can run a mile and a half but I don’t know about two miles. I’m just full bore for the Caulfield Cup and whatever happens after that, we will wait and see,” Moody said.

Moody said this morning’s gallop was as much about continuing to familiarise Incentivise with the left-handed Melbourne way of racing “and to have a trip away from home.”

WAS INCENTIVISE GALLOP A COX PLATE SPIN? - RSN927

Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise remains an outside chance to run in the Cox Plate, according to trainer Peter Moody.

www.rsn.net.au

Are Connections really going to pass up the allure of a Cups double? Will join elite company and be the first horse in 20 years to do so. Absolute madness if they avoid it to try and tackle Zaaki head on.

 

[iluvparis]

With the owners I doubt the call is even in Moodys hands.

Fair point

 

[Ah12]

Sounds to me like connections want to go the cups route.

 

[Ah12]

Incentivise into $5.50 for the MC. This is a serious go, what’s it jump at if it wins the CC?

 

[iluvparis]

Incentivise into $5.50 for the MC. This is a serious go, what’s it jump at if it wins the CC?

Probably So You Think type price. 3.20-3.50

 

[iluvparis]

Sounds to me like connections want to go the cups route.

Its $15 in the Cox Plate with TAB suggesting it’s highly doubtful they go that way.

 

[TBellicious]

Group 1 Moor booked for Young vverter

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS - MOVING DAY

#1 - Incentivise (Last week #1, betfair $9) - Simple equation - if it stays it just wins - looks set to start the shortest price fave since So You Think. The $9 is extremely attractive if you think he will go there which surely he will.
#2 - Young Werther ( #7, $20) - We had been talking this guy up ever since his first up run and boy did he deliver in spades yesterday - absolutely thrown in at the weights and guaranteed a run. Caulfied Cup next.
#3 - Verry Elleegant (#2, $24) - A rare day off yesterday but she bounced back from a similar run in last year's George Main to win the Caulfield Cup - can do the same here at Flemington
#4 - Sir Dragonet (#3, $50) - Happy to pen any of his races below 2400 - the $50s he has got out to now looks ridiculous and a borderline must bet.
#5 - Spanish Mission (#6, $10) - Monty to run top 5, monty to be to slow to win - rock bottom odds
#6 - Montefila (#8, $50) - Nice metrop win and this has been her target all along - having said that Sydney lead ups are never good enough and the last 600 is sure to be to her outer limimts
#7 - Surefire (#4, $120) - Still very keen but he has to drop out of the top 4 given he needs to win to get in and is yet to be seen. Was nommed for Turnbull but time is running out
#8 - Twilight Payment (#9, $20) - Last years winner but doubt he can repeat at 9yos - rock bottom odds
#9 - The Chosen One (#10, $44) - Had his chance last year but can run top 10 again this year
#10 - Grand Promenade (n/r, $19) - Into the field but the $19 is utter poison - really just a placemarker until something more promising can win its way into the field.

 

[Jugada]

Jug please. YW and Chapada also flogged those horses yesterday. They would legit be 100/1 in a Cox Plate and you know that. Be a better form analyst.

Who was the last horse to run in all 3? I give Moody none of having him right for Flemington if he runs at both Caulfield and the Valley

Yes there is only one horse to beat but that’s what they thought with Hartnell and it completely backfired and they threw away a Caulfield Cup. It’s a pointless argument to make if that one horse is a 1.50 shot

The difference is there is legitimately nothing to beat in the Melbourne Cup. It is the obvious path but not shocked if Moods bottles it given his horrific Cups record

So what? VE is apparently going to SP sub $4 in a Cox Plate according to some and he just lapped her. This isn’t Hartnell skipping the CC, the CC is THE race he is being aimed at and will tick that off and then go for his next target. If he walks in the CC like expected he will cop 1.5kg for Flemington. I would have him starting shorter at the Valley than Flemington so happily go their on route to the Cup especially as a horse who by all reports thrives on racing

 

[PieBeast]

Explosive Jack and Realm Of Flowers ran some nice Cup trials yesterday.

 

[iluvparis]

So what? VE is apparently going to SP sub $4 in a Cox Plate according to some and he just lapped her. This isn’t Hartnell skipping the CC, the CC is THE race he is being aimed at and will tick that off and then go for his next target. If he walks in the CC like expected he will cop 1.5kg for Flemington. I would have him starting shorter at the Valley than Flemington so happily go their on route to the Cup especially as a horse who by all reports thrives on racing

You and I both know that wasn’t the real VE out there yesterday and it is ludicrous to judge her off that run. I suppose Chapada and YW should also run in the Cox plate now. As I said. Be better.

I would say there is close to zero chance he will start shorter at the Valley with Zaaki in the race than he would at Flemington with a 1.5kg penalty. Zero. He is already 5.50 now on the corps for the cup. VE was 6.50 for the Cox plate and was an even money fave yesterday. The maths doesn’t work out

If he ‘thrived’ on racing why is he attempting his major spring target third up?

 

[iluvparis]

Explosive Jack and Realm Of Flowers ran some nice Cup trials yesterday.

Solid Ballarat cup trials

 

[Jugada]

You and I both know that wasn’t the real VE out there yesterday and it is ludicrous to judge her off that run. I suppose Chapada and YW should also run in the Cox plate now. As I said. Be better.

I would say there is close to zero chance he will start shorter at the Valley with Zaaki in the race than he would at Flemington with a 1.5kg penalty. Zero. He is already 5.50 now on the corps for the cup. VE was 6.50 for the Cox plate and was an even money fave yesterday. The maths doesn’t work out

If he ‘thrived’ on racing why is he attempting his major spring target third up?

Because he has basically been up all year and only given a small freshen up

 

[Jugada]

You and I both know that wasn’t the real VE out there yesterday and it is ludicrous to judge her off that run. I suppose Chapada and YW should also run in the Cox plate now. As I said. Be better.

I would say there is close to zero chance he will start shorter at the Valley with Zaaki in the race than he would at Flemington with a 1.5kg penalty. Zero. He is already 5.50 now on the corps for the cup. VE was 6.50 for the Cox plate and was an even money fave yesterday. The maths doesn’t work out

If he ‘thrived’ on racing why is he attempting his major spring target third up?

Who do you have as the better 2000m horse at the Valley then out of VE and Incent?

 

[PieBeast]

Solid Ballarat cup trials

A path VE AND Dragon would be well advised to chose.

 

[iluvparis]

Who do you have as the better 2000m horse at the Valley then out of VE and Incent?

VE at her best. Easily. As the market suggested yesterday. That’s the one that starts sub $4 in a Cox plate. Not the one that performed as she did yesterday.

My price forecasts for him

Cox Plate $5
Melbourne Cup $3.20

 

[FallingLiefs]

Who do you have as the better 2000m horse at the Valley then out of VE and Incent?

Personally, I think 4th up 2000m MV is VE's worst scenario outside 1600m second up at MV. Looking for softer surface and longer by now. I am struggling to make a case to say VE beats Incentivise in a CP without him doing something wrong or being quite wet (unlikely). The question is then can he beat Zaaki? who I also think is yet to prove he can repeat his big run annomaly from QLD so I give Incent a legitimate chance of a CC/CP double if Zaaki just holds his current form.

After that assess the horse and try the triple. I see no reason to avoid a CP.

 

[Jugada]

VE at her best. Easily. As the market suggested yesterday. That’s the one that starts sub $4 in a Cox plate. Not the one that performed as she did yesterday.

My price forecasts for him

Cox Plate $5
Melbourne Cup $3.20

Runs on the board had her shorter. Incent starts sub $4 in a Cox Plate comfortably for mine if he wins the CC like we expect

 

[iluvparis]

Runs on the board had her shorter. Incent starts sub $4 in a Cox Plate comfortably for mine if he wins the CC like we expect

I don't think they are going to gap VE vs him off one bad run with that SP profile. She was the only one they wanted on Saturday. I'd be surprised if he started sub $4 in the Cox Plate whereas I think he is a lock too at Flemington.

If you truly think that though you have to take the $15 the TAB is offering now - basically prices him at only 25% chance of running.

 

[Jugada]

I don't think they are going to gap VE vs him off one bad run with that SP profile. She was the only one they wanted on Saturday. I'd be surprised if he started sub $4 in the Cox Plate whereas I think he is a lock too at Flemington.

If you truly think that though you have to take the $15 the TAB is offering now - basically prices him at only 25% chance of running.

Too hard to quantify the chances of him lining up though at this stage. Will happily just launch into the 5s on the day on Paris bet

 

[iluvparis]

Too hard to quantify the chances of him lining up though at this stage. Will happily just launch into the 5s on the day on Paris bet

Winning fake money highly appropriate for a fake narrative.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Solid Ballarat cup trials

Isn’t this years cup so bad that it’s Ballarat cup standard?

 

[Jugada]

All aboard the Young Werther train after THE Melbourne Cup trial of the weekend. Most obvious bet at 20/1 and will be single figures after he storms home to place behind Incent in the CC and then gets in better at the weights at Flemo

 

[iluvparis]

 

[dontlimitme]

GIVE MY GIRL MONTY 10 MORE KILOS SHE AINT SCARED