Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[Toronado]

One from left field. NZ bred progressive stayer. Daqiansweet Junior. Trained by Philip Stokes. Stays all day. Handles all ground. You heard it here first.

 

[iluvparis]

One from left field. NZ bred progressive stayer. Daqiansweet Junior. Trained by Philip Stokes. Stays all day. Handles all ground. You heard it here first.

Dead set 30,000/1

 

[Toronado]

Dead set 30,000/1

So you're saying there's a chance

 

[Jugada]

Second tier Cups definitely his level. Was a nice-ish run in the Sydney Cup, but it was a Sydney Cup... and he was still beaten 4.5 lengths... and half the field didn't cope with the Heavy 15 conditions

 

[Hawksboy72]

Is Titleholder coming here or going to the Arc??

 

[iluvparis]

Is Titleholder coming here or going to the Arc??

Arc. Was never coming here. Would get 60+

 

[Hawksboy72]

Arc. Was never coming here. Would get 60+

Thanks for that info.

 

[Jugada]

Only somewhat likely internationals at the moment are Hoo Ya Mal, Loft, Cleveland, Deauville Legend, Al Qareem, Coltrane and Without a Fight.

Whatever Appleby and O'Brien decide to send will likely go to the top of the seedings but just guesswork there at the moment. Probably looking at horses like Secret State, Nations Pride and Stone Age if had to guess. Although Stone Age probably more a Cox Plate horse

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah if Aiden and godolphin don’t send some it’s looking utter trashola again.

 

[54Dogs]

Only somewhat likely internationals at the moment are Hoo Ya Mal, Loft, Cleveland, Deauville Legend, Al Qareem, Coltrane and Without a Fight.

Whatever Appleby and O'Brien decide to send will likely go to the top of the seedings but just guesswork there at the moment. Probably looking at horses like Secret State, Nations Pride and Stone Age if had to guess. Although Stone Age probably more a Cox Plate horse

Apparently there was an interview this morning which said Stone Age will likely come for CP

 

[iluvparis]

Apparently their was an interview this morning which said Stone Age will likely come for CP

You'd only rate SOR/Zaaki higher at this stage if true

 

[Jugada]

Apparently there was an interview this morning which said Stone Age will likely come for CP

Will be covering hard on my SOR bets as soon as he has his spot on the plane booked

 

[iluvparis]

Will be covering hard on my SOR bets as soon as he has his spot on the plane booked

No need to - SOR will towel him but he can run a nice placing.

 

[Jugada]

No need to - SOR will towel him but he can run a nice placing.

Hopefully. But odd things can happen and taking 26s even EW about a horse that will jump single figures is a must have cover

 

[iluvparis]

Hopefully. But odd things can happen and taking 26s even EW about a horse that will jump single figures is a must have cover

Sorry - thought you meant you were going to lay off SOR!

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Yeah if Aiden and godolphin don’t send some it’s looking utter trashola again.

Will just have to wait and see for which of Hudson Conway Racing the cup isn't going to be too soon for. Apparently they've purchased Cleveland and no doubt there'll be a few more they'll acquire.

 

[iluvparis]

Will just have to wait and see for which of Hudson Conway Racing the cup isn't going to be too soon for. Apparently they've purchased Cleveland and no doubt there'll be a few more they'll acquire.

Cleveland comes through the Chester Cup though which is normally a fair way off what is required - also doesn't get the benefit of being a 3yo

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Get in now at 34’s Deauville Legend

 

[plays tall 1]

Get in now at 34’s Deauville Legend

He ran well, and he gave the field 3 pounds. Sounds like he’s a good chance of coming down for the Cup. Will be interesting to see if they go to the Great Voltigeur now. If they do go there, the price for the Cup will be heavily dependent on that run.

Hoo Ya Mal ran well too. Moore dropped the whip which wouldn’t have helped. Will be interesting to see whether he goes to the St Leger now. Obviously he’ll be heading down here and the intention at this stage is the Cup.

New London presumably goes to the St Leger too. If he wins that then I suspect they’ll look at the Arc. If he doesn’t win but runs well then I think the Cup may be a good chance of coming down.

Difficult to bet big on these 3 at this stage given the uncertainty. As we saw with Sir Lucan last year, a lot can change if they run poorly before getting on the plane.

 

[iluvparis]

He ran well, and he gave the field 3 pounds. Sounds like he’s a good chance of coming down for the Cup. Will be interesting to see if they go to the Great Voltigeur now. If they do go there, the price for the Cup will be heavily dependent on that run.

Hoo Ya Mal ran well too. Moore dropped the whip which wouldn’t have helped. Will be interesting to see whether he goes to the St Leger now. Obviously he’ll be heading down here and the intention at this stage is the Cup.

New London presumably goes to the St Leger too. If he wins that then I suspect they’ll look at the Arc. If he doesn’t win but runs well then I think the Cup may be a good chance of coming down.

Difficult to bet big on these 3 at this stage given the uncertainty. As we saw with Sir Lucan last year, a lot can change if they run poorly before getting on the plane.

DL is a must bet at 34/1 with a very good chance of coming. HYM already rock bottom as is the winner who I doubt will come

If you wait for the certainty the price is already gone

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Aannnnd it’s gone - now $21

 

[Jugada]

Looks a good type. How far down the order would it likely be?

 

[iluvparis]

Looks a good type. How far down the order would it likely be?

I’d say probably the same as Sir Lucan off that performance. Can’t remember how easily he got in last year

 

[plays tall 1]

Looks a good type. How far down the order would it likely be?

Hard to say without knowing the other entries. Weights are to be released by 13 September. Carps doesn’t religiously follow international ratings in allocating weights so there’s some guesswork required.

Going into the Gordon Stakes DL had a rating of 108. But he gave the field 3 pounds and the field looks quite strong now (given that Hoo Ya Mal ran second in the Epsom Derby and New London is one of the favourites for the St Leger).

By comparison Sir Lucan had a rating of 110 when he came over here and he was very lucky to make the field after exceptional attrition that almost left us without a full field.

In 2020 Tiger Moth had run second in the Irish Derby. My notes at that time suggest he had a rating (possibly provisional) of 114 but I can’t confirm that retrospectively. Despite that he was allocated 7.5kgs off benchmark. So was Delphi. Tiger Moth would’ve missed the race had he not won the Group 3 after release of weights and been re-handicapped. Delphi got injured but I think he was too far down the OOE anyway.

My guess is that DL will get enough weight to get in. I think his form is stronger than Sir Lucan’s and Tiger Moth’s. And it doesn’t sound like there’ll be many internationals coming, and a bunch of the better horses from last year won’t be running (VE, Incentivise, Floating Artist). But if he runs in the Great Voltigeur and stinks it up, he’d be at much higher risk.

We’ll have a better idea next week though when the nominations come out.

 

[Jugada]

I’d say probably the same as Sir Lucan off that performance. Can’t remember how easily he got in last year

Yeah that was my first though and he basically got in through default with the attrition rate basically knocking it down to the final 24