1. AL RIFFA: I think he is probably the classiest raiders we have had come down for the Cup and he ticks all the boxes you want. He was a 2000m-2400m horse in Europe until only recently when he improved when they tried him over a trip so you know he has the turn of foot required to be competitive out here.
His form over the last year or so is incredibly strong for a handicap out here. Finishing behind Rebels Romance, City of Troy and Shin Emperor is a lot better than the staying form we generally see and he has improved even further since stepping out in distance.
Don't want a heavy track for him but a soft would be perfect.
2. BUCKAROO: A poor mans Sir Delius bringing in those WFA form lines but its the proven formula in recent years. Im not worried about the distance after his run we have already talked about from last year and they are going to ride him for luck with cover this year and if he gets the gaps will be very hard to hold out. Feel like we could be looking back afterwards and thinking it was very obvious with Sir Delius, Via Sistina and TTM form lines.
Like Al Riffa a soft track would be perfect but don't want it too heavy.
3. ARAPAHO: Has shown the ability in the past at this class, distance and form on wet tracks but when an 8yo puts in back to back shockers and is weighted above his current level ill be leaving it out of everything.
4. VAUBAN: I dont think he runs out a strong 2 miles and hard to back a horse who has flopped twice in the race already. Not in great form anyway flopping twice in his last 3 runs.
A soft track would help but has to make up too much on the Caulfield Cup horses alone to be any chance.
5. CHEVALIER ROSE: Pointless going too in depth into his form because if we even get a soft track he will finish near the tail.
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE: One of the hardest to beat. Great Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup where only Valiant King and Half Yours had better late sectionals and he meets them both better off at the weights. You know he will run the trip out
with most of his form being at 3000m in France and he has drawn perfectly to lob a good spot early.
I dont buy into him being some mudder who will love endless rain though. His best 3 performances have come on a firm track in Saudi, a good track in the CC and synthetic track in France. A soft should be just fine but the last time he saw a heavy track he could barely pick his legs up and was eased out of the race.
7. MIDDLE EARTH: Bit of an enigma who could go huge at 2 miles with the blinkers on but won't be getting any of mine if he does. Purely just #guessing if you back him because his form does not read up to it at all and then he also wants a good track which he likely won't be getting o should be able to be left out of everything.
8. MEYDAAN: Went looking for the milk saucer as soon as the heat went on around the bend at Caulfield. He looked ok the last furlong but that's because he threw the towel in when everyone else was trying to win the race.
Nothing suggests he will run 2 miles and he doesn't go on wet tracks so in the bin you go.
9. ABSURDE: Seen this story enough already to know he just isn't good enough and he isn't going any better this year than previous years. The 2 miles is still a concern as is the wet track. Leaving out of everything.
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE: It has been racing in the European version of the Murtoa handicaps against absolute camels so Ill be leaving out of everything. Goes fine on wet or dry so that shouldn't be an issue. If I had to squint hard to try to make a case the 2 miles won't be an issue and the horse he beat by 5 last time came out and beat home Nations Pride in a Canadian G1 before finishing out the back at 100-1 in the Breeders Cup the other day.
11. LAND LEGEND: Decent chance of making it three last finishes in a row. Going awful.
12. SMOKIN ROMNANS: 9yo, not racing well, not a 2 miler. Has none.
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD: Had an easy run up front in the Geelong Cup and was comfortably beaten by Torranzino and co. Doesn't bring in any sort of form at all, is a distance query and is a wet track query. Has none.
14. HALF YOURS: Great run in the Caulfield Cup and only Valiant King had stronger closing sectionals so no reason to think the trip will be an issue although he obviously still has to prove it. Any rain should only assist and its hard to find too many negatives but does meet everything out of the Caulfield Cup worse at the weights and has been up for a long time.
Ill probably risk him because I have to risk something at the top of the market but has a strong Ethereal feel to him and could easily be too good again.
15. MORE FELONS: I really want to like him as a roughie because he has closed off really well in his last couple races in Sydney, likes wet tracks and was showing some middle distance WFA form last year before going amiss. But I have really strong doubts on him at 2 miles.
He did no work in the race in 2023 and got the dream run up the rails but then his legs just went to jelly at the 300m. He had looked very weak late on in a number of European staying races too before coming out here so ill probably be risking him.
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR: Was going a lot better last year and wasn't good enough. Moonee Valley Cup form is very average even for the second tier here. Doesn't go on rain affected tracks anyway.
17. FURTHUR: Definitely not one of the better Euro 3yos we have had come out here but probably about on par with an Il Paradiso who arguably should have won so has to be in the mix still.
St Leger run was a bit flat but only 4 lengths off Scandinavia there is decent enough form and previously put away Epic Poet who is a horse who was far superior to Presage Nocturne when they met in Saudi so it all ties in ok to be in the mix here. Getting out to a bit of a ridiculous price now and will be in the mix for me somewhere.
Don't think he wants a wet track though so that would be an issue if we get too much rain.
18. PARCHMENT PARTY: Dirt horse. You just could not back him on turf. He would be 100-1 in the Heritage on the same day for me so has none in the Cup. Good last place candidate.
19. ATHABASCAN: We already know he isn't up to being competitive at this level even at his best and he is a long way from that at the moment. Leaving out of all exotics.
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES: Absolute plodder. Would genuinely fit in well in a Jericho Cup down here. She goes over the steeples back home in very average races. I cant even think of a steeplechaser to come out here and do anything off the top of my head and she is a slow average one at that. Her only benefit to being out here is to keep the big boy Al Riffa company on his trek.
21. RIVER OF STARS: Real 2 miler who has been working up to this slowly and her run in the Caulfield Cup was brilliant. Wet tracks are no issue and bigger track/further will only help.
She was going around against Presage Nocturne and co in France last year and starting favourite for a rough idea of her level compared to them in France.
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY: Another one who put in a great Cup trial at Caulfield picking his way through the field up the straight and finishing off very well. All is form this prep has been great to be honest and apart from being a question at the 2 miles im not sure why he is such long odds. He is a roughie who will be going in all of my bets.
Whether its wet or dry will make no difference he has great form on all surfaces.
23. TORRANZINO: Great roughie. He is just one who screams 2 miles to me especially being by Tarzino. His run in the Bart Cummings behind Valiant King was great and the form out of that race has been very strong so have to trust it here and he meets Valiant King 1.5kg better off from that race. Showed good speed winning the Geelong Cup off a slow tempo as well.
Wet track will be no issue.
24. VALIANT KING: Couldn't get better Cup trials than his Bart Cummings and Caulfield Cup runs leading in just screaming home off hot tempos with great late sectionals. Those two races are clearly the form races leading in of our local races and he was the run of the race in each so really just picks himself.
The wet track however is a worry for me with him. They avoided wet tracks with him when he was trained in Europe and on breeding he is a dry tracker so I wouldn't want to see too much rain.
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Ill be playing my exotics through these runners weighting more heavily to the A runners on a win line
A: Al Riffa / Valiant King / Presage Nocturne / Buckaroo
B: Royal Supremacy / River of Stars / Furthur / Torranzino
His form over the last year or so is incredibly strong for a handicap out here. Finishing behind Rebels Romance, City of Troy and Shin Emperor is a lot better than the staying form we generally see and he has improved even further since stepping out in distance.
Don't want a heavy track for him but a soft would be perfect.
2. BUCKAROO: A poor mans Sir Delius bringing in those WFA form lines but its the proven formula in recent years. Im not worried about the distance after his run we have already talked about from last year and they are going to ride him for luck with cover this year and if he gets the gaps will be very hard to hold out. Feel like we could be looking back afterwards and thinking it was very obvious with Sir Delius, Via Sistina and TTM form lines.
Like Al Riffa a soft track would be perfect but don't want it too heavy.
3. ARAPAHO: Has shown the ability in the past at this class, distance and form on wet tracks but when an 8yo puts in back to back shockers and is weighted above his current level ill be leaving it out of everything.
4. VAUBAN: I dont think he runs out a strong 2 miles and hard to back a horse who has flopped twice in the race already. Not in great form anyway flopping twice in his last 3 runs.
A soft track would help but has to make up too much on the Caulfield Cup horses alone to be any chance.
5. CHEVALIER ROSE: Pointless going too in depth into his form because if we even get a soft track he will finish near the tail.
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE: One of the hardest to beat. Great Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup where only Valiant King and Half Yours had better late sectionals and he meets them both better off at the weights. You know he will run the trip out
with most of his form being at 3000m in France and he has drawn perfectly to lob a good spot early.
I dont buy into him being some mudder who will love endless rain though. His best 3 performances have come on a firm track in Saudi, a good track in the CC and synthetic track in France. A soft should be just fine but the last time he saw a heavy track he could barely pick his legs up and was eased out of the race.
7. MIDDLE EARTH: Bit of an enigma who could go huge at 2 miles with the blinkers on but won't be getting any of mine if he does. Purely just #guessing if you back him because his form does not read up to it at all and then he also wants a good track which he likely won't be getting o should be able to be left out of everything.
8. MEYDAAN: Went looking for the milk saucer as soon as the heat went on around the bend at Caulfield. He looked ok the last furlong but that's because he threw the towel in when everyone else was trying to win the race.
Nothing suggests he will run 2 miles and he doesn't go on wet tracks so in the bin you go.
9. ABSURDE: Seen this story enough already to know he just isn't good enough and he isn't going any better this year than previous years. The 2 miles is still a concern as is the wet track. Leaving out of everything.
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE: It has been racing in the European version of the Murtoa handicaps against absolute camels so Ill be leaving out of everything. Goes fine on wet or dry so that shouldn't be an issue. If I had to squint hard to try to make a case the 2 miles won't be an issue and the horse he beat by 5 last time came out and beat home Nations Pride in a Canadian G1 before finishing out the back at 100-1 in the Breeders Cup the other day.
11. LAND LEGEND: Decent chance of making it three last finishes in a row. Going awful.
12. SMOKIN ROMNANS: 9yo, not racing well, not a 2 miler. Has none.
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD: Had an easy run up front in the Geelong Cup and was comfortably beaten by Torranzino and co. Doesn't bring in any sort of form at all, is a distance query and is a wet track query. Has none.
14. HALF YOURS: Great run in the Caulfield Cup and only Valiant King had stronger closing sectionals so no reason to think the trip will be an issue although he obviously still has to prove it. Any rain should only assist and its hard to find too many negatives but does meet everything out of the Caulfield Cup worse at the weights and has been up for a long time.
Ill probably risk him because I have to risk something at the top of the market but has a strong Ethereal feel to him and could easily be too good again.
15. MORE FELONS: I really want to like him as a roughie because he has closed off really well in his last couple races in Sydney, likes wet tracks and was showing some middle distance WFA form last year before going amiss. But I have really strong doubts on him at 2 miles.
He did no work in the race in 2023 and got the dream run up the rails but then his legs just went to jelly at the 300m. He had looked very weak late on in a number of European staying races too before coming out here so ill probably be risking him.
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR: Was going a lot better last year and wasn't good enough. Moonee Valley Cup form is very average even for the second tier here. Doesn't go on rain affected tracks anyway.
17. FURTHUR: Definitely not one of the better Euro 3yos we have had come out here but probably about on par with an Il Paradiso who arguably should have won so has to be in the mix still.
St Leger run was a bit flat but only 4 lengths off Scandinavia there is decent enough form and previously put away Epic Poet who is a horse who was far superior to Presage Nocturne when they met in Saudi so it all ties in ok to be in the mix here. Getting out to a bit of a ridiculous price now and will be in the mix for me somewhere.
Don't think he wants a wet track though so that would be an issue if we get too much rain.
18. PARCHMENT PARTY: Dirt horse. You just could not back him on turf. He would be 100-1 in the Heritage on the same day for me so has none in the Cup. Good last place candidate.
19. ATHABASCAN: We already know he isn't up to being competitive at this level even at his best and he is a long way from that at the moment. Leaving out of all exotics.
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES: Absolute plodder. Would genuinely fit in well in a Jericho Cup down here. She goes over the steeples back home in very average races. I cant even think of a steeplechaser to come out here and do anything off the top of my head and she is a slow average one at that. Her only benefit to being out here is to keep the big boy Al Riffa company on his trek.
21. RIVER OF STARS: Real 2 miler who has been working up to this slowly and her run in the Caulfield Cup was brilliant. Wet tracks are no issue and bigger track/further will only help.
She was going around against Presage Nocturne and co in France last year and starting favourite for a rough idea of her level compared to them in France.
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY: Another one who put in a great Cup trial at Caulfield picking his way through the field up the straight and finishing off very well. All is form this prep has been great to be honest and apart from being a question at the 2 miles im not sure why he is such long odds. He is a roughie who will be going in all of my bets.
Whether its wet or dry will make no difference he has great form on all surfaces.
23. TORRANZINO: Great roughie. He is just one who screams 2 miles to me especially being by Tarzino. His run in the Bart Cummings behind Valiant King was great and the form out of that race has been very strong so have to trust it here and he meets Valiant King 1.5kg better off from that race. Showed good speed winning the Geelong Cup off a slow tempo as well.
Wet track will be no issue.
24. VALIANT KING: Couldn't get better Cup trials than his Bart Cummings and Caulfield Cup runs leading in just screaming home off hot tempos with great late sectionals. Those two races are clearly the form races leading in of our local races and he was the run of the race in each so really just picks himself.
The wet track however is a worry for me with him. They avoided wet tracks with him when he was trained in Europe and on breeding he is a dry tracker so I wouldn't want to see too much rain.
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Ill be playing my exotics through these runners weighting more heavily to the A runners on a win line
A: Al Riffa / Valiant King / Presage Nocturne / Buckaroo
B: Royal Supremacy / River of Stars / Furthur / Torranzino
Melbourne Cup thread up and going. What a time to be alive!!! Was just thinking about when a thread would start up after Sir Delius won on the weekend.
