V&D no guarantee getting in as it stands, have it 30 or 31; won’t be surprised if see it run in the Lexus.
Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2019 (after the results posting of bets will get a ban)
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V&D no guarantee getting in as it stands, have it 30 or 31; won’t be surprised if see it run in the Lexus.
iluvparis
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That would be perfect - gets in after winning the Lexus and starts rock bottom odds again
That would be perfect - gets in after winning the Lexus and starts rock bottom odds again
If gets in still think it beats home Surprise Baby.
Anyway it won’t be winning the Lexus to get in, Raheen House will be.
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The top 6/8 we all seem to agree on could make some good $$ with Sportsbet same race multi
iluvparis
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Just take the exotics on the day - there is always one or two internationals that are huge overs on the tote
That’s cos all the average Joe punters are all over the locals, because the cup should be only locals and they know who all the locals are
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Speaking of exotics PM me your thoughts on how you want to play our bet that I’m placing thanks to Dalasan...
Eg. # you want in, flexi or boxed etc
How many I pick vs how many you pick
Will start compiling my pros and cons list in excel I do every year....
A little sad but I’m determined to crack a good trifecta one of these years
iluvparis
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My thoughts on the BF market post CC
- Constantinople - fair/overs
- MDG - fair on distance doubt - if you think its 100% chance to stay - massive overs
- Finche - unders
- Surprise Baby - unders/poison unders
- Cross Counter - unders
- Marmelo - unders/poison unders
- Vow And Declare - fair to unders
- Ispolini - fair
- Mustajeer - fair
- Il Paradiso - overs
- Master Of Reality - unders/poison unders
- Raymond Tusk - poison unders
- Southern France - overs
- Constantinople - fair/overs
- MDG - fair on distance doubt - if you think its 100% chance to stay - massive overs
- Finche - unders
- Surprise Baby - unders/poison unders
- Cross Counter - unders
- Marmelo - unders/poison unders
- Vow And Declare - fair to unders
- Ispolini - fair
- Mustajeer - fair
- Il Paradiso - overs
- Master Of Reality - unders/poison unders
- Raymond Tusk - poison unders
- Southern France - overs
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what are the bolder listed on BF ?
I’m on each at below:
MDG 34’s
Surprise Baby 51’s
Ispolini 19’s
Southern France 26’s
Raymond Tusk 51’s
Il Paradiso 24’s
Hunting Horn to the MV cup and then to Melb Cup. #spellplease
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Mobythepom
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I know you love the dosage index coming into play when there isn't track form to rely on for stamina.
MDG has DI/CD of 1.40/0.40 which is certainly on the high side for 2 miles but nothing too damining
Surprise baby has 2.58/0.47 which is rule out territory for me so agree with your unders/poison unders.
If you use Kew Garden's win yesterday to boost Southern France it's only fair to do the same for Cross Counter and Master of Reality. That race turned into a burn up in the straight and watching it again it's pretty clear to me that with an additional 2f or a faster pace to run at Cross Counter would have finished comfortably ahead of the other two. Given CC has shown it can deliver the goods in Australia (from my experience assuming an average drop off of around 5lbs from UK form to the Melbourne Cup is a reasonable assumption until proven otherwise) I think it should comfortably hold SF conceding 5lbs next month. Looking at the top of the market I agree that there are quite a few that don't strike me as potential winners but I wouldn't be in a rush to dismiss last year's from so readily, as CC and Marmelo are nicely ahead at the line.
I certainly wouldn't have CC as undress or Marmelo as "poison unders" at around 16/17 on Betfair.
Your thoughts on the prices suggest there are quite a few more at unders than overs at the top of the market....obvs if you consider one as massive overs that will cover several at small unders but most of your unders are poison unders so you must have several of the others outside the top dozen or so that you think are overs in the other runners to even it up - which ones?
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Mobythepom whos your top pick at the moment?
iluvparis
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Yeah nah - had every possible and couldn't run down a couple of moderate horses - and now comes here with top weight #noexcuses
The fact you have Maremlo as you top pick says you haven't done much form this year - they just don't win them at their third attempt and there is zero chance he is going better than he was at his last two attempts at the race
As for the italics and having so many unders you said exactly the same thing last year at this time of year when I potted a whole bunch of them that did nothing on the day. In reality it probably means I'd have MDG and Consta about $5-$6 chances - I expect the latter to start around there on the day the way things are heading.
You are looking at last years form mate - better open your eyes quickly to get your head around this years race. Horses almost never come back a year later and run to the same level - they almost always regress.
PS - are you going to dissapear for another year again if you get the race completely wrong like you did last year? #noexcuses
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iluvparis
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Hunting Horn finished alongside Danceteria with a much tougher run in the Eclipse and the latter is a $10 shot in the Cox Plate (admittedly at a level of posion that Heirich Himmler would be proud of).
iluvparis
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Mobythepom
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I have "disappeared" for a year every year since I joined in 2012 - good result or bad. I'm only on here for the Melbourne Cup. I will be back next year.
Marmelo was my tentative pick from the form available at that time, I'd now side with Constantinople and am pleased with my position on it. You're right it could still be overs. Wouldn't be in any rush to back the Jap horse mind. If you want to rely on stats such as the record of horses coming back in the Cup then can you ignore the record of Caulfield Cup winners in the MC too? Very different test. This year in particular.
Whilst Cross Counter had every chance in Ireland in terms of a clear passage, you are mistaken if you think that the 1m 6f distance of the race and that way that it was run did not offer a reason why it couldn't finish ahead of the likes of Southern France. Remember how hard CC hit the line when winning over 2 miles last year? It needed every yard of the distance.
I'm all over this year's form now that we've seen some trials. I'd dismiss Surprise Baby but give Finche and Vow and Declare place chances. As for the top two in the market I'd have Constantinople over MDG any day of the week (I'd take Cross Counter over it too).
Raymond Tusk would be on my list too. Perhaps the Lexus will throw up a decent challenger.
iluvparis
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I do remember how hard it hit the line last year - I also remember how much better it was going in the European summer last year to this. I also remember it had a boatload less weight.
And nice after time on Constantinople by the way
first time you mention it is after a slashing cup trial and now you suddenly have a 'position' on - enjoy your ban - so basically you have switched from one antepost fave to the other once they've changed - I guess this is better than your usual tip the Ebor winner blind strategy
And nice after time on Constantinople by the way
first time you mention it is after a slashing cup trial and now you suddenly have a 'position' on - enjoy your ban - so basically you have switched from one antepost fave to the other once they've changed - I guess this is better than your usual tip the Ebor winner blind strategy
Whose he going to be pacemaker for, Latrobe?
iluvparis
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Has a very similar profile to Yucatan
Speaking of; was going to Caulfield cup, didn’t. Was going to Geelong Cup, isn’t.
Never back a Lloyd runner until it’s in the stalls.
Mobythepom
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I do remember how hard it hit the line last year - I also remember how much better it was going in the European summer last year to this. I also remember it had a boatload less weight.
And nice after time on Constantinople by the way
Not everyone feels the need to bore the forum with the minutiae of their betting history.
"For transparency I've greened up Ispolini at the current price on BF- laying it back for my original stake."
Transparency of what? Are you really so full of yourself that you think anyone gives a flying * about your position on Ispolini ?!?!
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Lol'd
iluvparis
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No - it's just so I don't come here AFTER THE FACT and say my position is gone if something goes wrong with him in the lead up. Kind of like you have come on here AFTER THE FACT and suddenly have a position on the current fave despite you not mentioning it when this thread has been going for 6 months.
It's all about transparency. This thread would be pointless if it is just people coming in and posting all the juicy overs they allegedly have.
Gold Mount joins Torcedor as carnival outs.
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