Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2019 (after the results posting of bets will get a ban)

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Surprise Baby best of the locals
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Can't have that. Laying this on Beftair faster than a pikey with a load of knock off tarmac.
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I’d be a bit wary about laying him:

Trainer of Melbourne Cup favourite says his dark past should be forgotten. Not everyone agrees

Twelve years ago Paul Preusker was disqualified for possessing an electronic jigger. Now he's back, training the Melbourne Cup favourite and insisting he's a changed man.

www.abc.net.au

 

[HeathySure]

This one couldnt have won if it started now but Red Galileo now out for the rest of the spring. a lot of the Europeans are having problems this year it seems like to me

 

[FallingLiefs]

12 years ago most trainers would have had similar.


Can't just sit here and say how shocked we are when those sort of things appear, it even has racing terminology name.

 

[HeathySure]

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12 years ago most trainers would have had similar.


Can't just sit here and say how shocked we are when those sort of things appear, it even has racing terminology name.

except that certain trainers horses still improve out of sight when he takes them over..

 

[FallingLiefs]

This one couldnt have won if it started now but Red Galileo now out for the rest of the spring. a lot of the Europeans are having problems this year it seems like to me

Looking forward to the heavy 10's daily at Werribee to accommodate them

 

[Veer Right]

UK RPR - Racing Post Rating
UK OR - Official Rating

I have decided absolutely that Master Of Reality is the one to beat going over the horses form and replays. Still i want more evidence so i'm looking at the ratings and what i have come up with is, the official rating compared to the RPR to show improvement which is what you want entering a Melbourne Cup.

A comparison of Constantinople vs Master of Reality in the last 6-7 months. The best two improvements and last run if applicable.

Constantinope

99-108
105-113
110 - 115 - UK run

Master Of Reality

99-110
108-119
118-114

What i find really interesting is MOR had three runs from a spell in April rating 110 106 119 then was out for 2 months before rating 111 114 with his third run to come. The horses two runs from the break were both identical in distance to the previous campaign over 2800 before his main target.

Master of Reality should be favorite.

I haven't come to this conclusiuon just based from Constantinople. I was looking over Cross Counter and Rekindling the previous two winners who saw similar improvements. When i have the time i'll go over all the internationals to see if i can find a gaping hole in my assessment.

 

[FFB1]

Someone has asked for $9k Master of reality, on top of $9k for Latrobe. Nick must have been spruiking it at another function.

 

[iluvparis]

UK RPR - Racing Post Rating
UK OR - Official Rating

I have decided absolutely that Master Of Reality is the one to beat going over the horses form and replays.

Maybe you should watch some more replays - one I think legitimately has none and is poison unders.

Its peak rating is a complete false spike that comes from its 3rd in the Gold Cup (over 4000m) which it hasn't got near before or since and it has zero chance of repeating that completely false rating here, or in fact anywhere. In fact what the exact opposite of what your are saying is actually the case - because of that run it actually has a whole heap more weight than it actually deserves and is in terribly on the rest of its form.

Saying it should be favourite is one of the worst calls I've seen in this 40 page thread.

 

[Jugada]

Can someone explain why Il Paradiso is so short in the market? Going through its form it looks garbage to me

 

[iluvparis]

Can someone explain why Il Paradiso is so short in the market? Going through its form it looks garbage to me

Because it hasn't run here yet and is a 3yo.

Most of the ones that haven't run here yet are unders because everything else looks like a camel.

 

[Jugada]

Form is complete trash though still

 

[Milanista28]

Raymond Tusk wins easily

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Raymond Tusk wins easily

Get ready to duck....

 

[iluvparis]

Raymond Tusk wins easily

I lol'd #slowbor

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone saying they think anything 'wins easily' in this field is a solid warning sign.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I lol'd #slowbor

If it really was a #slowbor and given Mustajeer put in a solid performance in the CC, wouldn't you concede that Raymond Tusk's performance in that race in coming from last warrants merit? Add to that, he gets a 2.5kg swing on Mustajeer.

 

[Milanista28]

Anyone saying they think anything 'wins easily' in this field is a solid warning sign.

I have no idea lol. I pick based on the name and hope for the best, as good a chance as some of the "experts"

 

[Veer Right]

Maybe you should watch some more replays - one I think legitimately has none and is poison unders.

Its peak rating is a complete false spike that comes from its 3rd in the Gold Cup (over 4000m) which it hasn't got near before or since and it has zero chance of repeating that completely false rating here, or in fact anywhere. In fact what the exact opposite of what your are saying is actually the case - because of that run it actually has a whole heap more weight than it actually deserves and is in terribly on the rest of its form.

Saying it should be favourite is one of the worst calls I've seen in this 40 page thread.

Could not disagree with you anymore. I can lay it back right now at 20 for free bet to win 3800 but i'm not going to. If it doesn't get into at least 15 i will it ride.

Ascot Gold Cup it's peak run was enourmous. Sat outside the leader with the worlds best stayer on his back at nearly level weights beaten one length. Drops in weight for the Melbourne Cup.

I was alluding to he is due for another peak run this campaign. Draw a line through Kew Gardens in the Irish St Leger who took the whole straight to overhaul MOR. Came out next start and rolled Stradivarius rating 122. Kew Gardens would murder this field.

Anyway i am starting to believe you really do have NFI when it comes to international form.

 

[iluvparis]

If it really was a #slowbor and given Mustajeer put in a solid performance in the CC, wouldn't you concede that Raymond Tusk's performance in that race in coming from last warrants merit? Add to that, he gets a 2.5kg swing on Mustajeer.

Well he was beaten 2 lengths in the Ebor so he would want to get a bit of weight. Your argument would be fair if you think Mustajeer's CC run was good enough to see him in the finish at Flemington - personally I don't think it was.

 

[iluvparis]

Could not disagree with you anymore. I can lay it back right now at 20 for free bet to win 3800 but i'm not going to. If it doesn't get into at least 15 i will it ride.

Ascot Gold Cup it's peak run was enourmous. Sat outside the leader with the worlds best stayer on his back at nearly level weights beaten one length. Drops in weight for the Melbourne Cup.

I was alluding to he is due for another peak run this campaign. Draw a line through Kew Gardens in the Irish St Leger who took the whole straight to overhaul MOR. Came out next start and rolled Stradivarius rating 122. Kew Gardens would murder this field.

Anyway i am starting to believe you really do have NFI when it comes to international form.

Really? Surprising given this is the first time you've mentioned it. Nice stale price after timing though

I've already alluded to the fact that Ascot Gold Cup run looks a complete ratings spike - he hasn't got close to it either before or since - which makes me think it is highly unlikely he is suddenly going to repeat it here. On top of that - that race is held over 4000m and we have seen time and time again that that form is too slow to win Melbourne Cups.

Perhaps you'd like to look at SOUTHERN FRANCE who is a much better price and must be gigantic overs given he has beaten home MOR twice already this season.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Well he was beaten 2 lengths in the Ebor so he would want to get a bit of weight. Your argument would be fair if you think Mustajeer's CC run was good enough to see him in the finish at Flemington - personally I don't think it was.

After being held up for a large part of the straight. If you are happy to completely dismiss him, all good. I'm not.

 

[iluvparis]

After being held up for a large part of the straight. If you are happy to completely dismiss him, all good. I'm not.

#noexcuses - I am happy to dismiss because I don't think the Ebor form will be good enough - the winner was easily held at Caulfield - and there is no value in his current price.

 

[Veer Right]

Really? Surprising given this is the first time you've mentioned it. Nice stale price after timing though

I've already alluded to the fact that Ascot Gold Cup run looks a complete ratings spike - he hasn't got close to it either before or since - which makes me think it is highly unlikely he is suddenly going to repeat it here. On top of that - that race is held over 4000m and we have seen time and time again that that form is too slow to win Melbourne Cups.

Perhaps you'd like to look at SOUTHERN FRANCE who is a much better price and must be gigantic overs given he has beaten home MOR twice already this season.

Already mentioned MOR pages back as well as SF.

You realise MOR has only has 12 starts right and took a break after his 119 peak run? You really think the horse would be wound up to win the Irish St Leger? You know who owns the horse right? The run was still excellent. Kew Gardens rated 116 to his 114. I can live with that.

 

[Jugada]

Twilight Payment is one I think looks decent overs compared to a lot of others in the sub 30s range. The horses coming through the St Leger are panels better than the ones coming through the Ebor

 

[iluvparis]

Already mentioned MOR pages back as well as SF.

You realise MOR has only has 12 starts right and took a break after his 119 peak run? You really think the horse would be wound up to win the Irish St Leger? You know who owns the horse right? The run was still excellent. Kew Gardens rated 116 to his 114. I can live with that.

Yeah and Southern France has only had 14 starts and presumably rated a little better than 114? Or was Southern France trying and MOR not? Seems a stretch and a bit much to be basing a bet on for me at the current price that I see as well unders.

Also there is running style that would seriously concern me - who is the last on pace grinder to win a Melbourne Cup?