Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[iluvparis]

$34 most places

 

[Jugada]

Would keep an eye out on his other runners for Cup and Cox Plate markets too. Yahagi loves to globe trot and has been wanting to come back out here the last couple years

 

[Ari]

iluvparis looks like you're keen for the Cup already!!

I have members tickets for this Saturday, not sure I will go. May be a tad soggy.

 

[Jugada]

T O Royal another Japanese runner I'm hearing have the Melbourne Cup on the radar.

Really progressive lightly raced horse who has been moving through the grades. Won the Diamond Stakes really well the other month and is now going to go into the Tenno Sho Spring before maybe coming out here. For reference that's the same prep Fame Game took before coming out here and similar to what Admire Rakti did and those horses both started favourite in the Cup with 57kg and 58.5kg. If this guy could run a nice race in the Tenno Sho while missing the top 3 he is almost certainly going to beat the handicapper.

One to watch in a few weeks anyway

 

[iluvparis]

Dubai carnival is complete Mickey Mouse stuff and a magnet for fake form but Stay Foolish goes around in the 3200m race.

Manobo is 1.45 and people will talk him up as a chance of coming but he looks too good for that and the Ascot Gold Cup is his target.

Rodrigo Diaz is an Oz Bloodstock slowie that I expect to get to Flemington and do absolutely nothing like all of theirs.

 

[Jugada]

Stablemate Panthalassa going around in the Dubai Turf also worth watching from a Cox Plate point of view

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Stay Foolish … give it the cup now if he comes

 

[Jugada]

Yahagi cleaning them up.

Good win Stay Foolish. Can win if he comes but not going to beat the handicapper so be a little bit wary

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yahagi cleaning them up.

Good win Stay Foolish. Can win if he comes but not going to beat the handicapper so be a little bit wary

Just carried 57.5kg
He’ll do fine

 

[Viva la Mattner]

He’s even more bullish Panthalassa
Get on the Yahagi double- CP/MC

 

[Jugada]

Just carried 57.5kg
He’ll do fine

Yeah so did the rest of them. A handicap is a completely different different kettle of fish.

He may well do fine, im just saying he wont be missed by the handicapper.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah so did the rest of them. A handicap is a completely different different kettle of fish.

He may well do fine, im just saying he wont be missed by the handicapper.

Yeah because weight was such a big factor in the race last year in both Cups. Won’t matter given all the locals are utter trash.

Only danger would be some lightly weighted Europeans coming over.

Just get on now as he will be fave eventually and will be much more likely to come the the Pantha

 

[Jugada]

Yeah because weight was such a big factor in the race last year in both Cups. Won’t matter given all the locals are utter trash.

Only danger would be some lightly weighted Europeans coming over.

Just get on now as he will be fave eventually and will be much more likely to come the the Pantha

Yeah let's not worry about weights because of one race. Seems logical. It's not about what he gets vs the local scrubs it's about what he is going to get vs whatever Europeans come over and if another Japanese horse like T O Royal comes.

A bet still at anything over 20s but not the give him the race levels of confident like if the Pantha lines up in the Cox Plate

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah let's not worry about weights because of one race. Seems logical. It's not about what he gets vs the local scrubs it's about what he is going to get vs whatever Europeans come over and if another Japanese horse like T O Royal comes.

A bet still at anything over 20s but not the give him the race levels of confident like if the Pantha lines up in the Cox Plate

And if the Europeans don’t come which is entirely possible the weights will not matter just as they didn’t last year and all the years before they started bringing the right ones.

You absolutely have to back him now because it’s more likely to come than the Pantha (who there has been dead set zero chat about it actually coming) and just as big a moral if not more as there is zero local competition.

 

[iluvparis]

And in any case he was already rated as high as SPanish Mission so winning last night is going to change dead set zero from a weights perspective

 

[Jugada]

And if the Europeans don’t come which is entirely possible the weights will not matter just as they didn’t last year and all the years before they started bringing the right ones.

You absolutely have to back him now because it’s more likely to come than the Pantha (who there has been dead set zero chat about it actually coming) and just as big a moral if not more as there is zero local competition.

If he is the lone raider I'll give it away.

The ones from all the years before were weighted to win.

I said he was a bet at anything over 20s I'm just saying let's not get carried away because he is already well exposed and will cop a decent weight. If he comes out and wins at Ascot then he is going to be the highest weighted Jap we have had here.

Yahagi has said he wants to bring out horses for the other races if he comes and Pantha just fits that mould perfectly as an improver that is already part of his travelling crew. Everything about the Cox Plate suits him where as there is nothing really at home in that time for him and he isnt an Arc horse. Just an educated guess with a refund for if they don't nom

 

[Jugada]

And in any case he was already rated as high as SPanish Mission so winning last night is going to change dead set zero from a weights perspective

Exactly. It wasn't about last night changing it

 

[iluvparis]

Well Japanese horses never win at ascot so we don’t have to worry about that. He was going to cop a decent weight before winning last night (he was the highest rated horse there) so last nights win changes nothing.

The problem with Pantha is he is the exact type of horse that hasn’t actually come recently despite you tipping up about 5 of them each year since LG came.

 

[iluvparis]

Exactly. It wasn't about last night changing it

On the contrary it shows the Saudi win was no fluke and he has nothing to worry about from Europeans. His biggest negative is if it rains

 

[Jugada]

Well Japanese horses never win at ascot so we don’t have to worry about that. He was going to cop a decent weight before winning last night (he was the highest rated horse there) so last nights win changes nothing.

The problem with Pantha is he is the exact type of horse that hasn’t actually come recently despite you tipping up about 5 of them each year since LG came.

Mate please who have I tipped to be coming here? Nothing has come out here lately anyway due to Covid and restrictions.

He is a level off those that will be staying at home for the Tenno Sho and isn't an Arc horse. If Stay Foolish comes it just makes sense he would be on the plane too

 

[iluvparis]

Mate please who have I tipped to be coming here? Nothing has come out here lately anyway due to Covid and restrictions.

He is a level off those that will be staying at home for the Tenno Sho and isn't an Arc horse. If Stay Foolish comes it just makes sense he would be on the plane too

Cmon mate. You mention about 4 or 5 from Japan every year around this time.

 

[Jugada]

Cmon mate. You mention about 4 or 5 from Japan every year around this time.

And? There has literally been two editions since LG and nothing came because of restrictions

 

[iluvparis]

And? There has literally been two editions since LG and nothing came because of restrictions

Lol no they didn’t come because they were never coming. Even on page 1 of last years cup thread your tipping up some random jap and coming up with some crazy reason why they could get around the restrictions.

 

[Jugada]

Lol no they didn’t come because they were never coming. Even on page 1 of last years cup thread your tipping up some random jap and coming up with some crazy reason why they could get around the restrictions.

Oh boy mentioned a horse that didn't turn up. Better stay quiet then I guess.

I wasn't coming up with some crazy reason, I was letting everyone know the rules that meant Japanese horses weren't permitted to be scintigraphy scanned which meant less hoops for them to jump through. It was the covid restrictions for staff that made any that were considering coming write it off

 

[iluvparis]

None were considering coming. Don’t blame COVID.

Look if you want to lie to yourself and claim you haven’t been tipping random jap horses that were never going to come left right and center the last two years go for it.