Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Team Lloyd seems quiet

 

[Jugada]

Team Lloyd seems quiet

Will know this time next week if they have a serious contender

 

[Suncraze]

POWER RANKINGS - MENGELE ATTACKS

Given the RV vets have gone full Dr Mengele in the last 7 days I've taking an axe to the power rankings this week and chopped anything that hasn't already passed a vet test or isn't already owned by Australian interests.

#1 DEAUVILLE LEGEND ($10.50; last week - #1) - Trimmed up a couple of points on betfair with a bunch of the top raiders failing their vet exams.
#2 HOO YA MAL ($19, #2) - Surprisingly a touch week on the fair this week - scan risk?
#3 GOLD TRIP ($85, #4) - The more I think about it the more i think this could be a 100/1 moral if Oz Bloodstock pull the right reign. They won't.
#4 DUAIS ($15, #6) - Most likely top local hope to run and jumps a few slots with raiders dropping out of contention.
#5 INTERPRETATION ($60, #7) - Needs to win to get in so would like to see him back at the track pretty soon to see how he is going.
#6 STAR OF INDIA ($170, #8) - Out the gate on the fair suggests not coming or heading to Sydney
#7 WITHOUT A FIGHT ($30, u/r) - 5yo raider who has past a vet check but is winning low class small field races which is generally not the profile to get the job done in the big one - I'd find it hard to mark him lower than his current price on the day anyway.
#8 SPANISH MISSION ($17, u/r) - Utter poison already for a horse who was too slow last year and isn't getting any faster.
#9 SHERAZ ($60, u/r) - Excellent first up run by the Sydney Cup placegetter but might need a complete bog on race day to be competitive.
#10 SUREFRE ($40, u/r) - Just went around for a barrier trial on the weekend but I have huge 2 mile queries and getting rolled in a Queens Cup and Sydney Cup is hardly MC winning material

I had go take the $12 on offer at Betright given how quickly this race has fallen away. Will kick myself if DL comes and this shortens.

 

[iluvparis]

I genuinely can't believe these are the sort of horses being thrown up, it dead set looks like a Mornington Cup field

You’re forgetting VE papered over the cracks last year. Grand Promenade who is a dead set winter offseason stayer was 5th fave last year. This is the world in the era of the Mengele vets

 

[Dominion]

Do these rankings factor in price? Like is Spanish Mission so low because of its bad odds? Or are you saying it should be 8th fave right now (because that seems nuts to me)

 

[iluvparis]

Do these rankings factor in price? Like is Spanish Mission so low because of its bad odds? Or are you saying it should be 8th fave right now (because that seems nuts to me)

Nah price not factored in. It’s purely ordered on chance I think they can win.

It had every possible last year and couldn’t win and is now with a worse trainer. Same as last year. Probs a great chance of running top 5 but very little chance of winning

 

[Dominion]

Nah price not factored in. It’s purely ordered on chance I think they can win.

It had every possible last year and couldn’t win and is now with a worse trainer. Same as last year. Probs a great chance of running top 5 but very little chance of winning

Fair enough. I feel like its run last year wins this year :/ race looking real bad. Worse trainer is a good point though

 

[HeathySure]

Because knights order couldn’t win if it started today.

but it beat Shiraz in the Sydney cup!! i agree with you by the way . Sydney cup form is almost always irrelevant

 

[iluvparis]

but it beat Shiraz in the Sydney cup!! i agree with you by the way . Sydney cup form is almost always irrelevant

On a heavy 10000 - i'm not going to do a separate list for every track conidition/bias!

 

[HeathySure]

y

On a heavy 10000 - i'm not going to do a separate list for every track conidition/bias!

you should factor La Nina being around this year too!

 

[Sockeye]

What about El Bog?
If Deauville Legend is rated no. 1 off the Voltiguer win, El Bogs run in the same race doesn't get him in to calculations?
Coming to Waller, and can get 60/1.
They've said they are targeting Cox Plate, Waller brang VE through the Cox Plate last year. Totally different profiles but Waller is a master trainer and also very cagey and hard to read!

 

[iluvparis]

What about El Bog?
If Deauville Legend is rated no. 1 off the Voltiguer win, El Bogs run in the same race doesn't get him in to calculations?
Coming to Waller, and can get 60/1.
They've said they are targeting Cox Plate, Waller brang VE through the Cox Plate last year. Totally different profiles but Waller is a master trainer and also very cagey and hard to read!

El Bog couldn't win if it started today - has absolutely none - was absolutely belted in the GV and looks to be getting worse every run this campaign.

Waller is also a terrible trainer of Cups horses.

 

[HeathySure]

You have just bagged the trainers of the last quinella

 

[iluvparis]

You have just bagged the trainers of the last quinella

I mean you would have to be a complete and utter battler to not get VE and Incy at the pointy end of last years Cup field

 

[Jugada]

What about El Bog?
If Deauville Legend is rated no. 1 off the Voltiguer win, El Bogs run in the same race doesn't get him in to calculations?
Coming to Waller, and can get 60/1.
They've said they are targeting Cox Plate, Waller brang VE through the Cox Plate last year. Totally different profiles but Waller is a master trainer and also very cagey and hard to read!

60s seems about right in a year where we could get some very decent 3yos out here. I have him marked a bit like the Thundercat down here - has run to a B grade level so often now that it seems pretty clear that is about where he is at. There are more progressive ones with higher ceilings already likely coming

 

[FallingLiefs]

VEs cup was one the most masterful training performances I can recall.

 

[Jugada]

VEs cup was one the most masterful training performances I can recall.

So masterful he didnt even want to run the day before

 

[FallingLiefs]

So masterful he didnt even want to run the day before

But he did and she won. Can’t comprehend her winning the morning of let alone a year later.

He is cautious yes but was a huge effort given her form on paper before and after the day.

 

[Jugada]

But he did and she won. Can’t comprehend her winning the morning of let alone a year later.

He is cautious yes but was a huge effort given her form on paper before and after the day.

Great effort by the horse but not sure I give the trainer too much of the credit when he doesn't even want to run a horse that wins by 5 lengths

 

[FallingLiefs]

Great effort by the horse but not sure I give the trainer too much of the credit when he doesn't even want to run a horse that wins by 5 lengths

Secret to training on bigfooty: target your horse at a race, pull it out of the paddock the day before and hope it puts in a great effort.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Saying Waller had minimal input to her performance is fitting the result to the story.

Seems a pattern on this board.

Get a tip wrong - bias track.

Hyped horse loses - lel had no chance. While is 7s into 4s and gets beaten a lip

Waller wins a cup - luck, didn’t even want to start.

He’s an excellent trainer of stayers, will only be a matter of time before he gets another.

 

[Jugada]

Typical Liefs vs BF attitude now days when anyone has a differing opinion. What happened to you mate

 

[plays tall 1]

The way things are unfolding with the lack of international interest and vet checks, we may struggle to get a full field. Last year we only just managed to fill the field, but I think we got down to the last couple in the order of entry to achieve that. If we go down a similar path this year, then the pressure to be high in the OOE becomes irrelevant.

 

[iluvparis]

Main takeaway is the 0 international horses left in the Caulfield cup and cox plate

 

[cruskits]

Hey iluvparis, just throwing out a request to do a Power Rankings style top 10 of the remaining 10 International horses in the MC field. I have just read an article and it mentioned that DL still has to pass a RV vets check is this right?? Interested in the Williams runners especially one I hadn’t really heard about in Temple of Artemis (I’ll obviously google and read up a bit now but yeah would love to know peoples thoughts) Blown away that we down to 10 with 8 weeks to go. Fancy a guess at how many actually start. I’ll go with 4?? Unbelievable…..