Racing Melbourne Cup eve form review - starts 8pm Monday night

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
13,306
16,144
AFL Club
Geelong
The market hasn't got as carried away with A Prince of Arran as I thought it would. The back up is the query and I will risk based on that.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
5,728
6,386
AFL Club
West Coast
A Prince of Arran - Lacks a lot of class when compared to the other internationals. Could see him possibly running on to run top 5 given he has been running well here already but he shouldnt be competing for a win. The races he has been running in havent been all that strong either and there is no chance he turns the tables on Yucatan.

A genuine 30-1 or 35-1 shot for mine and is now too short after winning the Lexus
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,357
14,487
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
overs for mine,

margin of 1.7 to Yucatan is probably 4L theoretically with him being eased down but small weight swing and Yucatan being a fair ?? repeatability he may be good place change. 4th top for mine.
 

Better Loosen Up

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 2, 2009
7,866
11,290
AFL Club
North Melbourne
His trainer was really bullish about him for the Lexus as he said he was trained to win that day. He was far less confident about the short back up though.

His shortest back up to date was 9 days and that didn't end well.

That aside, his form reads well and the distance is not a problem. Though the predicted rain won't help. Hard to get a read on his chances.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,357
14,487
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
back up is good, yeah he might capitulate but also small chance of bringing on spikes. for 20:1 shots only a positive.
 

Better Loosen Up

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 2, 2009
7,866
11,290
AFL Club
North Melbourne
5th last year
Gets the chance to take the short cuts again this year from an inside barrier.
Hasn't had a lot of luck in some of his races since last year.
Putting a line through his MV run
Likes the distance and the wet
He's my 100-1 outsider
 

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rideclutch

Premium Platinum
Jun 25, 2011
9,137
8,622
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Formula 1, PGA Tour
Had the track pattern in favour when winning the Geelong Cup, this much harder obviously. Might take up the running but can't see it running top 10 unless they deadset walk.
 

Better Loosen Up

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 2, 2009
7,866
11,290
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Give this girl a chance based on her CC run though 3200m is the obvious query. Light weight, loves the wet though no mare has even run a place in this race since Makybe Diva. Not sure what to read into that.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,357
14,487
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
2nd most intriguing horse for mine. It's not good enough, i don't think.

it might just be the most suited horse to the track/dist. love the way it runs for increasing in trip i think it eats up 3200m. terribly underpriced on ability but i think it will run a clear PB, run top 10 but probably find multiple better than it barring a freak spike.
 

rideclutch

Premium Platinum
Jun 25, 2011
9,137
8,622
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Formula 1, PGA Tour
Big test for her but I'll be cheering her on. Draws well, hopefully Craig gets her to settle and run on nicely.

Well enough found in the market, couldn't back her at the price.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
5,728
6,386
AFL Club
West Coast
Youngstar - One of the ones in the market that i give little chance to at all. Outside of its 2nd to Winx it has shown no real indication it has the ability to compete at this level. 3yo qld form is not up to it. Its run in the CC was not terrible but no where near good and i feel like that was the race it was set for.

A 4yo local mare is enough to put the line through it anyway
 

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