Racing Melbourne Cup eve form review - starts 8pm Monday night

[Hamingja]

Marmelo is a reach and pinning hopes that changing its prep this time in will have a significant difference.

Bowman had the choice to ride a few and has stuck which is a small plus.

Trainer lacked confidence when I heard him interviewed yesterday.

I have it at 26s. I think it should be closer to 20s than 10s and it is short now however.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

10. Avilius (GB)
J. Cummings
G. Schofield (11)

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Can he run 3200m? I'm not prepared to risk with exotics. Form lines stack up well.

 

[iluvparis]

Won't stay - and as such not in my top 10

 

[Jugada]

Avilius - Wont stay 2 miles. He is bred for speed more so than stamina and has been paddling at the end of every mile and a half race he has contested. The Bart Cummings form is pretty trash as well to go with his Sydney wins which count for almost nothing.

Leaving out of everything

 

[skipper kelly]

Seems quite short at 12's. Will bet around.

 

[rideclutch]

Wasn't a huge fan of his Bart Cummings and then went even more sour after the Cox Plate. Just don't think he'll run it out that strongly, pass.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

9. Marmelo (GB)
H. Morrison
H. Bowman (10)

Can't understand the hype
Failed last time, rule of thumb is you failed the first time you'll be no better next go
Going worse than last year when he flopped

 

[Better Loosen Up]

11. Yucatan (IRE)
A. O'Brien
J. McDonald (23)

 

[skipper kelly]

Will be leaving it out of everything.

 

[Jugada]

Yucatan - Best Cup trial i can remember in the Herbert Power. Worked hard around the outside and still killed them. Form out of the race was only fair but 2nd and 3rd still quinella'd the Lexus so its hardly garbage form. Doesnt matter anyway the way he won was that good it didnt need to be overly strong.

By Galileo so dont have too many concerns with the trip. A deserved favourite and will be on the first line of all my bets

 

[FallingLiefs]

Repeats LST - Wins

that simple.

 

[Hamingja]

I don't need to have any on him courtesy of doubles but Yucatan is getting to a price where I'm considering going back for more. Just needs some luck to slot into the 3W with cover trail from the gate.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Hard to argue against his HP run with the form now franked in the Lexus. Was a massive run.

He also drew the outside barrier in that race so 23 this time doesn't look as bad.

Question is can he be as effective over 3200m if he is 3 wide again? Also probably one of the least credentialed overseas runners before coming out here.

I'm conflicted with the short odds but obviously a winning chance

 

[iluvparis]

Repeats LST - Wins

that simple.

This - and now genuine overs. Could end up winning by 3 and people left scratching their heads as to why it wasn't 5/2.

Clear on top selection

 

[rideclutch]

Couldn't have been more impressive. My only reservation is getting sucked in off 1 run, but aside from that I think he just wins.

Barrier has given us a better price.

 

[FallingLiefs]

JMac completely offsets barrier, getting a good price because of it.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

12. Auvray (FR)
R. Freedman
T. Berry (1)

 

[skipper kelly]

No

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Genuinely have absolutely no idea how this guy has even qualified for the race. Add to that, he's been given 54kg. For what exactly?

 

[Jugada]

Thought we might have just skipped Auvray. Has none. Might beat a couple home who are gasping for air over 2 miles

 

[iluvparis]

Would have more chance if horse rode jockey

 

[rideclutch]

Hope this little old local can win for Richard Freedman, he's so disappointed in the Internationals taking all our prize money...

Oh wait.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

13. Finche (GB)
C. Waller
Z. Purton (15)

 

[Jugada]

Finche - Was an ok run in the Geelong Cup. Would have much preferred to see him lead though. His form in France is very similar to Avilius but he has looked stronger at the finish each time they met. If you like Avilius then just back Finche instead. Twice the price and much more likely to stay. Has form behind Cracksman in France too.

Lacks a little bit of class and the way he races probably isnt suited to 3200m at flemington but is another one i have on the second line of my tips so will be going in all exotics