Melbourne Cup field

OutKast

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Thread starter #1
Ok this evening the barrier draw for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup took place...

Tooheys New - Melbourne Cup 3200m
(Apprentices cannot claim)
Prize money: $3,600,000;
1st $2,400,000 and trophies $75,000;
2nd $650,000;
3rd $290,000;
4th $50,000;
5th $10,000.

1 _ 2114 Persian Punch dm (11) Richard Quinn 57.5
2 _ 0562 Sky Heights tm (21) D Oliver 56.5
3 _ 2260 Universal Prince mbn (6) J Sheehan 55.5
4 _ 7547 Caitano m (8) J Murtagh 55
5 _ 4504 Give The Slip (15) R Hills 55
6 _ 1523 Marienbard (7) L Dettori 55
7 _ 3409 Kaapstad Way (5) N Rawiller 54.5
8 _ 0934 Yippyio dmn (22) D Beadman 54.5
9 _ 0100 Freemason mh (24) D Gauci 53.5
10 _ 9705 Curata Storm (18) G J Childs 52.5
11 _ 0890 Mr. Prudent dm (2) C Williams 52.5
12 _ 0700 Pasta Express m (4) D Nikolic 52.5
13 _ 3331 Ethereal m (13) S Seamer 52
14 _ 0442 Hill Of Grace m (20) C W Brown 52
15 _ 1868 Inaflury tm (16) B Prebble 52
16 _ 7093 Big Pat m (9) P Mertens 51
17 _ 0607 Reenact (17) L V Cassidy 51
18 _ 0551 Karasi hn (19) G Boss 50
19 _ 8421 Maythehorsebewithu tmh (10) J Patton 50
20 _ 0006 Prophet's Kiss m (3) B York 50
21 _ 2322 Spirit Of Westbury tm (12) R S Dye 50
22 _ 1131 Rain Gauge tmn (23) K McEvoy 49.5
23 _ 0055 Rum mh (1) C Munce 49.5
24 _ 3203 Celestial Show h (14) R McLeod (a) 49


Tips everyone??
Of the favourites I think Sky Heights, Universal Prince and Freemason will give a good sight, and i'm a fan of Inaflury. Of the lightweights Celestial Show and Spirit of Westbury will make good each-way bets. The foreign horses are pretty much unknown but you can expect one to run in the top six - which one well who knows, maybe Marienbard. Won't decide my final tips till later...
 

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IAMDASH

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#3
Have not studied the form for a final selection yet but at the minute I think the likes of Big Pat, Rain Gauge and Celestial Show are a massive chance. I have not seen any of todays races as I have been playing cricket. How did Kaapstaad Way fair? It has been crying out for the track firm. It must have a huge chance if we get a firm track on Cup day.
 

Danny Chook Fan Club

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#7
Alright, for what it's worth (and judging by my efforts yesterday, it's not worth much), here's my thoughts on that two mile handicap that they're running on Tuesday.

I'm throwing a couple of the internationals into my five horse trifecta. Persian Punch has the Australian experience, is a genuine stayer and will have no dramas with the trip. Already run a place (in 1998), and is in better form now. Marienbard is the pick of the Godolphin runners. He's lightly raced but has won four of ten, and finished ahead of Persian Punch last time they met and is better off at the weights for that meeting. Frankie Dettori has had enough rides in the Cup to know the drill by now (I still haven't forgiven him for slaughtering Bullwinkle a few years back). Caitano hasn't won for over a year and Give The Slip is a distance query - happy to leave those two out.

I'm potting the lead-up form in the minor races, including yesterday's Saab, the Moonee Valley Cup, any of the country cups, and any non-Melbourne form. That wipes out ten or twelve of them, including some fancied runners like Maythehorsebewithu, Big Pat and Rain Gauge. Taking the Inaflury line through the Naturalism Stakes, she beat home Maythehorsebewithu by four and a half lengths while conceding him five kilos. She meets him three kilos better for that win, while the Moroney horse has been the best of the minor race lead up form, second at Geelong and winning yesterday. I think that form isn't good enough.

Also potting Freemason and anything that finished behind him on Caulfield Guineas day. That includes Rain Gauge, and therefore by extension the Moonee Valley Cup runners as well.

That knocks it down to five Aussie runners. Inaflury is a head case and can't be trusted, while most Melbourne Cup runners these days come in with strong lead in form, which puts doubt over Universal Prince.

That leaves me with my trifecta. Sky Heights is going as well as he was in 1999 when he started favourite. He has the perfect WFA lead-in form, coming into the races as they go past 2000m. His Caulfield Cup run was very good, and he is seasoned enough to run out a good two miles. Ethereal obviously goes in, she's run Northerly to 1 3/4 l at WFA before winning the Caulfield Cup, and her distance query is mitigated somewhat by her having three runs at longer than 2000m and winning them all.

My winner is Hill Of Grace. She was flat footed on the turn in the Caulfield Cup, but she ground home like a two miler to finish just behind the place-getters. She had the run yesterday - which I like - spacing several of her Tuesday opponents while grinding down and just failing to catch the leader. That finally broke her Flemington duck, and she did run in this race last year, finishing an unlucky tenth. She's a slight distance query, but the Zabeels tend to handle it. She'll race seventh or eighth, just behind the pace (and there's plenty of it), and she'll be in the firing line at the 300m.

(Warning: This is my 20th year of trying to select a Melbourne Cup winner, starting in 1982 when I tipped Kingston Town and he came second. That remains the closest I've ever come. So anyone relying on this analysis - myself included - is an idiot.)

My numbers:
1st - 14 Hill Of Grace
2nd - 2 Sky Heights
3rd - 13 Ethereal
4th - 1 Persian Punch
5th - 6 Marienbard

Good luck.
 
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#9
Have been a Big Pat since i saw back in April/may.
Just seems to be the perfect cup horse only one bad run this run in (in the Turnbull) all races with the exception of the last to have been in unsuitable W.F.A events 2 great cup trials in the Caulfield and M.V cups.
No doubt he will run the trip with only 51kgs on his back beautifully drawn. Has to be a big chance
Persian Punch for second its form in its lead up races has been outstanding not at all badly off at the weights.
Distance no worries at all (seeing should have won the race back in 98)
wins in the Moonee Valley cup dont come more easy than that of Rain Gauge walked in won by roughly 3 and it could have been more had he been asked to fully stretch bit of rain would help though
but with 49.5 Kgs should offset the shocking barrier not sure he'll run the trip have a feeling he will though.
Celsetial Show is another lightweight will very good form in his last 3 runs when stepping up in distance(the cranbourne cup) run under the circumstances was great seeing never at any stage have any luck always run well at the track even though her Flemington record of 4 - 0 - 0 - 1
49kg fair barrier nice odds
Sky Heights is the best of the rest i bekieve been in great form for a not overly strong Melbourne Cup a freak of a jockey in the saddle so the barrier wont be at all a problem very hard to bet if the track gets close to dead
so my numbers
1st. Big Pat (No.16)
2nd. Persian Punch (No.1)
3rd. Rain Gauge (No.22)
4th. Celestial Show (No.24)
5th. Sky heights (No.2)
 

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walshy1993

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#13
Originally posted by GoEagles
Whatever happened to last years winner Brew? Did the horse retire or didn't make it into this years field?
the connections of both brew and diatribe (last years caulfield cup winner) were forced to retire both horses due to injury
i think both are planned to go out to stud
 
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