Melbourne Cup Punting Guidelines.

- PC -

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What are yours?

Once a year punter..ok maybe 10 times a year. So I feel I need some strong guidelines to keep me in check and not chase every whiffy tip given out. Most of my guidelines I would assume most here follow anyway...but I wanted to see how close I get

For me the most important consideration is : Can the horse go the distance? I know 3200m races dont pop up every week but I feel some lead up preparation in either the other states cups is a must. The lowest I like to see a horse run is 2600m.. thats why Railings drops off my list

Age is the second consideration for me.. has to be between 4 - 7 , I think with such a big race maturity of body is needed

Trainer/Jockey.. not every jockey can win and not every trainer can train a winner...but some have better ideas than others. ie a Lee Freedman and Bart Cummings you have to look at the horses they set up. Similar to a jockey and why they ''jump'' off one horse to ride another... surely they are good judges of horses and how they feel under them

10,000m Rule.. this is my ''odd'' one. Bart Cummings ( thanks Tim56) swears by it and and it makes sense that the horses preparation should be about putting metres under its legs ...build strength and stamina .

What else do you look for?
 

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Tim56

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#2
The distance rule is well and good but there is no quality form in this country over more than a mile and a half - these days the other Cups are absolute rubbish, so you are always taking a punt on a horse running out the 3200m. Age I agree with but it's no revelation - I can't remember the last 3YO to win the cup, and I think the last to run in it was Arena, back in '98. Trainer/jockey I agree with especially the jump off part - however, some times there is a long term booking and the rider has to switch despite what they would have wanted (i.e Beadman in the CC last year). 10,000m rule I believe is more Cummings than Freedman - Makybe certainly didn't and I think it is largely dependent on the horse.
 

sethlad

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#3
All good points but a couple are less valid in the last 15 yrs.

As the race has improved,the quality horses have been given winnable weights so history is becoming less of a guide IMHO.

The "10,000 m rule" is a bit like the "Must run on Derby day rule."
Becoming less & less important.

The one fact which has proved almost impossible to ignore since 1990 is that to win a MC nowadays,you must be competitive at WFA.Since 1990,every winner except one has weighed in at WFA,most have been placed.

Internationals,still very tough to line them up but they tend to win in the weaker years

seth
 

Angus1

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#4
I'm no expert however I do think some of those guidelines are incorrect to an extent. For starters running 10,000 meters and running on Derby day is something which the international horses don't do. In fact many internationals hardly run at all and still seem to finish in the placings.

As for jockeys knowing the horses that is debatable as well.
Shane Dye had the ride on Jeune yet got off to ride Coachwood because he didn't believe Jeune could stay the distance. Jeune was in very good form yet Dye was concerned about the 3200. This is always a problem with the Australian horses. You just don't know if they can stay. I would still prefer a quality horse like Jeune though as oppossed to a stayer like Coachwood though. I backed Jeune at 20/1. My advice is don't listen too much to what jockeys say. And don't listen to anything that Shane Dye says.

The Cup has changed a lot over the years. It was once a race for stayers which had pretty bad form and rarely did anything again after winning the cup.
These days it is a real quality race and most of the place getters are top quality horses.
 

Angus1

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#7
AAMI said:
True but Brew won it not so long ago and never won again. This year we are due for a roughie!!
Yes ocasionally a roughie gets up for a place too. This year doesn't look all that strong really so a roughie grabbing a place could be on. Yeats however is a class above the rest and should be right in it at the end as perhaps Tawqeet .
 

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Angus1 said:
Yes ocasionally a roughie gets up for a place too. This year doesn't look all that strong really so a roughie grabbing a place could be on. Yeats however is a class above the rest and should be right in it at the end as perhaps Tawqeet .
Zazzman wasnt that rough...if you followed its form from Oaks day the year before it was hidden away in March...
 
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