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Melbourne Cup Tips

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Like a lot of people my cup tipping record is woeful to average..At Talaq was my first after 10 years of Cup knowledge and I missed Kensei because I ignored the omens..I was actually reading a book called Kensei at the time..go figure... 1988 Who would have picked that battleship mare Empire Rose..scored again with Subzero ..Freedman couldnt do wrong.Then the 90s were basically a blur.. dont mention Blur ..I think everyone missed it..

My problem is I listen to a million ''experts'' and confuse myself..

So in saying that I watched last years Cup and did my dough but the Oaks day I noticed a horse that won at 2500 called Zazzman and watched it win over the next 6-7 weeks all over 2000m or more and thought hmmm Ill keep an eye out for that..it is now back and while its preparation hasnt been 100% I will back it as my number 1 with MakYbe Diva as number 2..like a lot I was impressed with its run home and as someone said if it was over 2001M it would have one...and I also think I will throw in Vinnie Roe and Shes Archie in my trifectas ..If Shes Archie was as bad as they say it would be scratched already.I also will throw in Elvstroem and Another Warrior to finish.

I havent won the Tri yet but came close once 1,2 and 4 spewing...but I live in hope


Good Luck to all who punt and remember its a horse race, its the human race which we should all keep our focus on. :cool:
 
NICK THE PIE MAN said:
Hugs Dancer let me down badly in the Caufield.
Won't be going back there.
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You expected him to win on a wet track mate?

Backing Hugs on a rain-affected track is akin to having money on Richmond to win the premership ;)
 
If the track is firm I reckon Media Puzzle will be a huge chance. Good each way bet IMO. $25 each way for me. Backed MD for the win at 9/1 last year and won $450, but is a bit short at this stage to get any real value.
 

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phat said:
You expected him to win on a wet track mate?

Backing Hugs on a rain-affected track is akin to having money on Richmond to win the premership ;)
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Couldn't help it.
It had made me a lot of money in the past.
It was a show of loyalty. ;)

Damn my sentimental side!
 
I won last yr on makybi and the year b4 on media puzzle ...

I reccond diva is a huge show to go b2b the caulfield cup finish was SUPER impressive ... BUT ... at $3.50 no value there.

Im leaning towards mummify and elvestrom for some reason ... Mummify had a shocker in the cup ... BUT ... i reckon there playing a bit coy on her ... SHe's good odds too!!!

So for me:
1. Mummify
2. Diva
3. Elvestrom
 
My MC tips are..

1. Media Puzzle - luvs racing in Oz & any horse with Damien Oliver on board is always a chance (besides, I always want Oly to win :))
2. Makybe Diva - if its dry, Vinnie Roe if wet
3. Elvestrom - good form
 
I reckon people are being very quick to write off Mummify.

I forgave Confectioner after a poor Caulfield Cup run, and it battled on against Grand Armee for a second at decent odds. Ultimately, quality horses are still quality horses. And Mummify knocked off Grand Armee in the Yalumba, too ;)

Mummify can be inconsistant, he's cost me a lot more than he's won, but if the track dries out and the weather gods avoid heaping us with rain, I think he'll be really quite hard to mow down over the 3200m.

Certainly one at odds.
 

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Don't write off Delzao, great runs in the Caulfield cup and Cox plate. He has also shown he can handle a wet track. So I will go with Delzao to win with Makybe Diva, Hugs Dancer and Pacific Dancer to fill the places.
 
The wet wouldnt bother Makybe Diva that much would it?

I see Upsetthym has run a 1st over the same distance in Auckland, at outsiders odds, worth a little roughie punt...
 
Hopefully it will stay dry:

1. Distinction
2. Makybe Diva
3. She's Archie

Best roughie: Upsetthym
Sentimental favourite: Grey Song
You're stupid if you back: Mamool
 

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Bobby Beecroft said:
If dry- Makybe Diva

I hope it rains, & the money comes for Vinnie Roe.
Then I will go & double my bet on Makybe Diva.
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agreed!
 
Lashed, Media Puzzle or Hugs Dancer. Lashed 'cos it's Number 14, Media Puzzle 'cos that's who I tipped two years ago when it was Number 14 and it won, and Hugs Dancer 'cos it's a cool name. Can I just say why the hell don't I get a Student Free Day for the Cup? It's a disgrace!
 
I've got Media Puzzle, Ethereal, Rogan Josh, and a couple more right the past few years. Haha, it's fun. I love the Cup.
 
Don't gamble on the horses a whole lot, but keep a bit of an eye on them (especially at this time of year). Bet occasoinally and usually don't do too badly. Should more often, but it's probably fear of knowing my luck will turn as soon as my money goes down holding me back.

Melbourne Cup has been my best race for some reason having backed in Saintly (when i was only 12), Jazebeel, Rogan Josh and Makybe Diva in recent times. Also picked Lets Elope in a Kindergarten or year 1 sweep but i don't think that one counts :p

Last year was certainly the best i've gone, having money on some form or another on 5 of the top 6 (Jardine's Lookout the one i didn't), but in amongst all my win's, place's, each-way's, trifectas and quinella's, i only got up picking MD Each way, and She's Archie Each Way, but still took home about 140-150 from a 50 dollar layout.

Will keep up my tradition of not going to the punt to the very death, and this is the first year since i am actually considering not putting it on. It will all depend on the odds tomorrow. The only horse, for mine, that is really screaming out "pick me" is Makybe Diva but in a 24 horse race it has odds which are far too short. Won't get on it until it hits at least $6.00, and with this "sentimental betting" that is happening, i can't see that unless it rains heavily tonight and a plunge goes on Vinnie Roe. I still think MD will beat VR regardless of weather.

The best advice i can give is Don't think about the odds too much. Although they do play a significant part, the best value horse is the horse you think will win. Just because a horse that is about 15th or 16th favourite and you feel should be between 6th and 8th, and you get on it and you're proven right by it coming between 6th and 8th, that is still useless too you.

Obviousbly though if there is a horse(s) that are far out and you think they can do more damage than predicted, it doesn't hurt to put 5% of your total outlay on that horse. But IMO at least 50% of your total outlay should be an each way (or win only) bet on the horse which you think will win, not which horse has the best odds.

This is my little bit of advice on each horse:
1 - Vinnie Roe - In good form, class horse, can go the distance, and will be helped in the wet. Don't discount if it is dry though. Hard task to come out to Australia for just one race though. Top 6.
2- Mamool - Don't like it. From a class stable, class jockey, has won this distance before, but i'm just not a big fan.
3 - Elvestreom - Forget the Cox Plate, it's a top horse in top form, but the big query is just the distance. Best indication is it was getting run down at 2400 by Makybe Diva and now is carrying 2.5kgs more. Still Top 8.
4 - Mummify - anyone who rights it off is going to be a nervy man/woman with 600 to go. It's a good horse, and will be there right to the death. Last 200 is the test. Danny Nikolic will give it every chance. Top 6.
5 - Makybe Diva - here's the one. In top form, Can run out the distance easily, and won't mind getting into a sprint at the death. Will place for sure unless it breaks down.
6 - Media Puzzle - It'll be a chance, and it's won before so we know it can do it, but is it too old?? Solid build up and a great jockey. Include in a trifecta, with your top 2. Maybe a place claim. Doubt it will win.
7 - Razkalla - leave it alone. Not a bad horse, but only 1 lead up race 4 weeks ago, which isn't enough for a standard 6 year old. McEvoy is a top class jockey but doesn't have the horse.
8 - Delzao - Solid, but slightly dissapointing build up. Steven King will give it a good ride though. Can't see it troubling them after 2200.
9 - Distinction - Big Chance! Got the form, the jockey, and running very lightly (usually runs at 60 or 60.5kgs), can run the distance and is a definate eye opener. Top 6.
10 - Hugs Dancer - Poor run in the Caulfield Cup, but was doing good things beforehand. And any horse which has 7 runs at this distance, and 3 wins at longer distances has to be given a chance. Top 10.
11 - Roman Arch - will struggle in this field. Leave it alone.
12 - Zazzman - very hard to see it doing anything, especially with an apprentice jockey. Has won at distances close to it, but i just don't think it has the class.
13 - Grey Song - Genuine interest in the horse from high places, and has been running pretty well. Could cause some tension amongst punters with 1000 to go, but i'm thinking it's best to avoid it. Too risky.
14 - Lashed - Solid jockey, and solid form. If you can get a good price, put a couple on and see what happens, but don't be dissapointed if it does nothing, because it most likely won't.
15 - Strasbourg - Only a fool would take this one on. I'm a Cummings man, but this horse doesn't have it. Struggles to win (let alone near this distance), and with the news just coming in (as i typed right now) that Baster won't be running and a 17 year old apprentice is looking like stepping in it's now in even worse condition.
16 - Pacific Dancer - Good bet. Solid form, especially a Geelong Cup win, while it's running light and with 2 wins at 2400, it has the energy to get there. Top 10.
17 - She's Archie - Did my proud last year, but can't come into a Melbourne Cup injury plagued. Would be inspirational, but don't think it's a chance.
18 - Another Warrier - Don't be afraid to splash out abit here. Excellent form over pretty long distances, and has even won a few. Jockey change won't help but don't expect it in there at the death. Top 6.
19 - Hard to Get - Like it. Solid form, But only 3 wins, 2 2nds, 1 3rd from 18 isn't great. Good lead up running 2400+ distances and finishing 6 4 and 3. Has won over 2500. Top 10.
20 - Upsetthym - Very average form at best, But its a solid horse, and any horse with a win over 3200 is one you gotta keep an eye on, but not for too long. Doesn't quite have the talent.
21 - Don Raphael - Quality horse and can't believe more aren't on it. HUGE win on the weekend still hasn't attracted much interest (don't know what's happened today), and other good form. 3 wins at 2400+. Top 8.
22 - On a Juene - Has a cup winner parentage, but that hasn't exactly been the best omen in the past. Not to bad form, and ran OK at the Geelong Cup but won't go the distance. Will bomb out at 2400 and finish deep in the back half of the field.
23 - Winning Belle - The hardest horse to pick. Good parentage (Zabeel), but inexperienced. 11 strts, for 3-1-2, which is solid. Solid form, including a good run in the Saab (won by Don Raphael) last weekend. Has never won over 1600 though. Could suprise but doubt it. Might be best in a trifecta.
24 - Catchmeifyoucan - Not a bad one, and the rain will majorly help it. Will start slowly, and can hold out the distance. It's better than 50/1 but don't think it can take a top 3. Can finish in the top half, but doubt it.

My Top 10: 1) Makybe Diva, 2) Distinction, 3) Mummify, 4) Vinnie Roe, 5) Another Warrior, 6) Don Raphael, 7) Hard to Get, 8) Elveostreom, 9) Pacfic Dancer, 10) Hugs Dancer.

Could change depending on weather.

Even though i said i wouldn't get on Makybe Diva unless it was at 6, i still probably will do it anyway.

As it stands, my 50 bucks will be going:
15 Win - Makybe Diva
10 Place - Makybe Diva
5 Each Way - Distinction
2 Place - Another Warrior
2 Place - Don Raphael
2 Place - Hard to Get
(No point putting place money on Mummify or Vinnie Roe)
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Mummify
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Don Raphael
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Vinnie Roe - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Vinnie Roe - Don Raphael

Could change tomorrow, and could end up putting another 10 $1 Box trifecta's on, or may up the above 9 $1 Box Tri's, to $2 Box Tri's. Will work it out tomorrow.
 

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