Melbourne Cup Tips

[browa02]

Upsetthym or Delzao. Which one should i go for considering its gonna rain??

 

[The Passenger]

Upsetthym or Delzao. Which one should i go for considering its gonna rain??

Neither, but Upsetthym will do better than Delzao, rain, hail or shine.

 

[eastaugh36]

Am doing the form tonight.

 

[True_Beleiver]

I think zazzman holds the key to this race.....if he goes out and sets a frantic pace like he did a couple of weeks ago, i think the european horses will be in real trouble....all their staying races are sit-sprint type affairs.

 

[The Passenger]

..

 

[Pantsless]

1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Mummify
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Don Raphael
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Vinnie Roe - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Vinnie Roe - Don Raphael

Those $1 tri's are actually $3 each...

 

[The Passenger]

huh??
Box em for 1, and you'll get 16.66% per cent of what the total trifecta is.
Box em for 2, and you'll get 33.33% per cent back.
And so on until at $6, you'll get 100% of the full value of the total trifecta back.

 

[Pedro]

huh??
Box em for 1, and you'll get 16.66% per cent of what the total trifecta is.
Box em for 2, and you'll get 33.33% per cent back.
And so on until at $6, you'll get 100% of the full value of the total trifecta back.

Mininmum trifecta cost will be $3.00. That will give you a 50cent investment ie You will get half the trifecta dividend. If you want a $1.00 box trifecta, each of those bets will cost you $6.00.

They will only cost $1.00 if you have them as straight out trifectas eg MD to win, Distinction to run 2nd, Mummify to run third.

 

[The Passenger]

Mininmum trifecta cost will be $3.00. That will give you a 50cent investment ie You will get half the trifecta dividend. If you want a $1.00 box trifecta, each of those bets will cost you $6.00.

They will only cost $1.00 if you have them as straight out trifectas eg MD to win, Distinction to run 2nd, Mummify to run third.

might be different elsewhere, but i have put on $1 trifectas hundreds of times before.

 

[Tim56]

1 - Vinnie Roe - If it rains he is some sort of chance, but I just don't think his international form stacks up that well. International jockey as well, which I don't like.

2- Mamool - No

3 - Elvstroem - Form horse of the spring, and represents excellent value. Slight query at the 3200m, but shouldn't have to work that hard from an inside barrer. Each way.

4 - Mummify - If it doesn't rain, he is good value at odds. Needs it firm, but unlikely to get it.

5 - Makybe Diva - Excellent chance. Has done everything this right this prep, and obviously proven staying ability. Serious unders however.

6 - Media Puzzle - No. Beat an exceptionally weak Cup field and has had two starts in two years. Oliver is in terrible form anyway.

7 - Razkalla - No. Just because something comes from overseas does not mean it is necessarily any good.

8 - Delzao - Value for the multiples, and hasn't been as bad as some have made out (5th in Caulfield Cup, 6th in Cox Plate), but I can't see him winning. Should be good value in the multiples however.

9 - Distinction - He has only won $190,000 in prize money, which reflects the class of the races he has been in. Another international flop coming up.

10 - Hugs Dancer - Needs it dry, unlikely to get it. However, if dry should give a good shake, but I don't think he's up to the class.

11 - Roman Arch - No way.

12 - Zazzman - No way.

13 - Grey Song - Very good lightweight chance. Will stay all day, and lead up form in the Winning Edge and Caulfield has been very good. If wet, even better. Sure to give you a show, strong place chance, a win quite possible if wet.

14 - Lashed - No

15 - Strasbourg - No

16 - Pacific Dancer - Will stay, has won Grafton Cup (don't laugh, it isn't a bad race, G3 I think) and very convincing in the Geelong Cup, albeit with everything in his favour. Has to be a chance, but not deserving of third favouratism.

17 - She's Archie - Last lead up race was the Turnbull, and horses just don't win with the kind of interrupted preparation that she has had.

18 - Another Warrior - Newcastle Cup and Moonee Valley Cup winner who will stay and is quite capable. Not up to this class however.

19 - Hard to Get - No

20 - Upsetthym - No

21 - Don Raphael - Served me well on Saturday, but that is all he is up to.

22 - On a Juene - No

23 - Winning Belle - Possible lightweight chance, will go forward early. One for the multiples. Can stay, as she has won a QLD Oaks.

24 - Catchmeifyoucan - Maybe if it was run on a beach, but not here.

I will be backing Elvstroem, but I think Makybe Diva is the horse to beat.

Contenders:

Vinnie Roe
Elvstroem
Makybe Diva
Grey Song
Pacific Dancer

Best of luck fellas, you'll need it.

 

[Fall Out Boy]

NSW TAB have a different system. You can take a percentage of a trifecta (or any multiple), so you box up the whole field if you like and just take it for $1.

Much more flexible than down here.

 

[Tim56]

might be different elsewhere, but i have put on $1 trifectas hundreds of times before.

Flexi tri's. A NSW product we will hopefully see down here soon.

 

[The Passenger]

Flexi tri's. A NSW product we will hopefully see down here soon.

yeah, thats it. You guys had me a little confused, then remembered i was talking to Melbournites who may have different set ups.

 

[Ricketts]

NSW TAB have a different system. You can take a percentage of a trifecta (or any multiple), so you box up the whole field if you like and just take it for $1.

Much more flexible than down here.

that is exactly what ive always dreamed of doing. i cant afford to box the field at the cost it is in VIC.

 

[Pedro]

Apologies to BT then.

Makes sense I guess. 16% of the dividend to box 3 horses for $1. Is that correct?

 

[The Passenger]

Apologies to BT then.

Makes sense I guess. 16% of the dividend to box 3 horses for $1. Is that correct?

yep that's it.

 

[Pantsless]

I was being conservative with the 50c unit as I'm looking at at $90 trifecta at the moment!

 

[Dingster]

MD is the stand out, but I'll go for something with value. Don Raphael has Scotty Seamer and he has some big wins next to his name. People suggest that he won't get the distance and that might be the case, but look at who won/ran the placings at past Cups and you can find lots of value. My Cup form is average.

 

[sp-mac]

MD is the stand out, but I'll go for something with value. Don Raphael has Scotty Seamer and he has some big wins next to his name. People suggest that he won't get the distance and that might be the case, but look at who won/ran the placings at past Cups and you can find lots of value. My Cup form is average.

Last time I tipped the winner of the SAAB quality in the cup. It was Brew. I got the quinella as well as the straight out win. The SAAB is as long as the Caulfield cup, I reckon he can do OK.

 

[hilly]

# 17 She's Archie
# 5 Maykbe Diva
# 4 Mummify

 

[BlueBoy83]

As it stands, my 50 bucks will be going:
15 Win - Makybe Diva
10 Place - Makybe Diva
5 Each Way - Distinction
2 Place - Another Warrior
2 Place - Don Raphael
2 Place - Hard to Get
(No point putting place money on Mummify or Vinnie Roe)
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Mummify
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Distinction - Don Raphael
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Mummify - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Makybe Diva - Vinnie Roe - Another Warrior
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Mummify - Vinnie Roe
1 Box Tri - Distinction - Vinnie Roe - Don Raphael

Could change tomorrow, and could end up putting another 10 $1 Box trifecta's on, or may up the above 9 $1 Box Tri's, to $2 Box Tri's. Will work it out tomorrow.

mate to box a trifecta it costs $6 not $1 or $3 ... that gives you all the combos with these horses.

so your looking at $36 + $54 (box trifectas).

for what its worth my trifectas looking:
1. Makybe Diva $20 W
2. Vinnie Roe $20 W
3. Grey Song $5 E/W

roughie: Mummify at $20 is great odds if rain holds out ... will only place this bet if the heavens dont open up and track stays good.

 

[The Passenger]

mate to box a trifecta it costs $6 not $1 or $3 ... that gives you all the combos with these horses.

so your looking at $36 + $54 (box trifectas).

for what its worth my trifectas looking:
1. Makybe Diva $20 W
2. Vinnie Roe $20 W
3. Grey Song $5 E/W

roughie: Mummify at $20 is great odds if rain holds out ... will only place this bet if the heavens dont open up and track stays good.

went through it before above, i'm in NSW, so our system is different. We are able to bet $1 Box Trifectas, but only get 1/6th of the final trifecta divident.

BTW, i also like your picks of Diva, Song, Roe and Mummify. All four i'll have money on tomorrow.

 

[hilly]

Current Tab Returns

5 Makybe Diva $4.30
1 Vinnie Roe $9.50
3 Elvstroem $11.70
13 Grey Song $13.60
16 Pacific Dancer $14.90
17 She's Archie $15.60
9 Distinction $16.10
6 Media Puzzle $16.20
10 Hugs Dancer $18.00
4 Mummify $26.60
15 Strasbourg $29.80
23 Winning Belle $30.40
24 Catchmeifyoucan $31.60
2 Mamool $32.50
18 Another Warrior $34.00
8 Delzao $34.70
20 Upsetthym $42.50
7 Razkalla $44.60
21 Don Raphael $48.90
14 Lashed $55.70
11 Roman Archer $58.80
12 Zazzman $76.90
22 On a Jeune $81.20
19 Hard to Get $97.90

 

[- PC -]

Apologies to BT then.

Makes sense I guess. 16% of the dividend to box 3 horses for $1. Is that correct?

33% outlay for 16% dividend? Someones getting rich.


Will Zazzman be the Chris Brasher to Elvstroems Roger Bannister? Both trained by Tony Vaisil. Im sticking with the Zazz I would cry if I jumped off him after watching him all year and he won especially at the odds...

Zazzman $10 E/W
Makybe Diva $10 E/W
Upsethym $5 E/W

Tri 1,5,12

Spread Tri 1,5,12/1,5,12,18,20,3/1,12,18,20,3

 

[FreoDocker]

#1 - Elvstroem
#2 - Distinction
#3 - Greysong