Melbourne horse racing statistics

[Ceehook]

Hi all ,

I'm looking for a source of horse racing stats to study the Melb. saturday quaddie ? Can anyone help , I will consider commercial sources so pointers much appreciated

I'm also interested to hear anyone's thoughts on quaddie strategies or quinellas or trifectas

Having read the Don Scott book back in the 90's he quoted a fact that for 52 quaddies from Jan - June 1985 only one roughy saluted $26 , I'm assuming he was looking at the Wednesday & Saturday meets

in 796 races (Jan 2016 - Sept 2019) , the last 4 races of the day for Saturday's and other major days like easter new years etc 57 winners were $26 + 7.1% , what has changed ?

in that period favourites have won 31.8% of races and $21 + account for 10.8% of the winners , the add on to that fact is only 2.5% of runners $21 + win on a winners / (runners $21 +) basis

and for those trying their luck at the Saturday quaddie 34% have at least one leg at $21 +
keen to discuss how to blend in some picks from all odds ranges

 

[EDFL follower]

Most people just take 1 quaddie which is a quick way to going broke.
No use taking 6*5*6*7 like a lot of people do. If the 4 faves win u lose money. You dont want to collect if that happens.
Better off taking hundreds of quaddies 1*1*1*1. Eg a $2 fave, $4, $8 and $21. Easy enough to do in a basic spreadsheet and multipy up the odds so that they go over a specified expected payout figure.

 

[Ceehook]

I've been manually collecting stats off racenet , this is the last 170 Melb. Saturday quaddies

you mentioned if the 4 favs win , thats twice in just over 3 years




I tried taking a series of bets with only 1 fav and then another lot with only 2 favs ,
it gets difficult if your internet isnt good

If your brave you go no Favs but you'll only collect once a month

I'm coming around to the one big flexi (because its easy to put on)
but you have to go skinny in a couple of legs , medium in one leg and wide in one leg

I'd be interested to hear what makes people think the should go skinny or wide ?

 

[iluvparis]

Normally if there is any odds on shot then I will take two (let’s say TAS) on guineas day last year. A wider one and one with the hot pot one out. Even stakes on both bets.

 

[Ceehook]

there looks to be something behind it , if the odds on pop loses mathematical probability says the second fav should be the next in line for most wins

melb. races , last 4 races of the day , odds on fav that's lost , only two of those races were won by the 2nd fav there does seem to be a mini cluster around $10 - $12