Traded Melbourne trade #33, #43 and #53 to Port Adelaide for #27

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The formula for the AFL’s points curve is:

Points = -697.0ln(pick) + 3000

If you calculate it based on all historical pick for pick trades it gives a formula with a far steeper curve. It would be so easy to change to make it accurate, I don’t know why they don’t.
Won’t the actual curve change again as teams don’t trade points for the same value so points for picks trades would always be more points for teams looking to match with later picks. You need a circa 20% points gain to trade down the order otherwise you are just taking inferior picks.
 
Won’t the actual curve change again as teams don’t trade points for the same value so points for picks trades would always be more points for teams looking to match with later picks. You need a circa 20% points gain to trade down the order otherwise you are just taking inferior picks.

You just look at pick for pick trades not involving teams needing to match a bid. That gives you the true value of picks compared to higher/lower picks.
 

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