Merged draft threads

[LukeParkerno1]

Re: who would Essendon FC draft if we have Pick 1 in the National Draft

I'd rather Rich or Swift thanks.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Re: draft value of EFC current senior list

Ryder - a swap for choices 5 to 10 but not lower (Natanui, Rich, Hurley, +/-Yarran ahead of him)Not even considered. May possibly think about considering thinking about pick 1. But not really.
Gumbleton - on pure ability, choices 3 to 10; because of injury problems, 5 to 10 Nope, what's the point of trading a No.2 DP who hasn't had a chance yet for another. Pointless for us.
Davey - a swap for 10 to 20 prior to ACL; now possibly 30 to 40.May consider the 10-20 in a really good draft, but realistically, not for trading.
Lovett - a swap for 25 to 35 Maybe at the lower end of that, but only maybe.
Houli - a swap for 25 to 35 Too much potential
Stanton - like Houli and Lovett Too much potential, plus he's already worth more than that
Hille - a swap for 30+ Hille is one of the premier ruckmen in the competition. As we have no-one else capable of shouldering the ruck, he's not for trading, but 1-10 would get him otherwise. Maybe.

I understand that these are just what you rate the players at, but here's how I'd respond to those "offers" were I in charge of recruiting.

You've picked the players who are going to be the core of the team over the next 10 years, and are really more valuable to us than they would be to an outsider.

 

[Giggidy Giggidy]

Re: draft value of EFC current senior list

These are my thoughts about the current trade value of EFC's senior list.

I am certain that this is the kind of document that all clubs would have in their possession

It would be interesting to read other members thoughts.

It is a purely hypothetical list similar to a dream team.

Scott Gumbleton 1-10
David Hille 5-15
Heath Hocking 50-60
Scott Lucas 5-15
Adam McPhee 25-35
Mark McVeigh 1-10
David Myers 1-10
Angus Monfries 40-50
Patrick Ryder 1-10
Jobe Watson 15-25
Jason Winderlich 25-35

Great post Yaco, interesting to think of our players in this context.

I agree with most of your assessments, however I think all of those rated 1-10 (except perhaps Ryder) should be moved down to 5-15 with Lucas & Hille. I wouldn't envisage any players (except in extreme circumstances such as Judd) obtaining top 5 trades ever again - unless they are part of a bigger package.

Undervalued: Watson (10-20); Winderlich (15-25); Monfries (30-40); McPhee (20-30); Hocking (35-45) IMO.

 

[Daytripper]

realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Having seen them all play now with the exception of Hooker you can sometimes get a feel for what they may end up like.

Unfortunately for us there are no Judds or Browns on the horizon. When a player is special you can usually see it straight away (like Ryder) however ours all look good-to medium at best.

Anyway, here is my opinion of what the :
A) worst case scenario is for each player
B) the player they will likely end up being.
C) the best case scenario for each player.

2005
P Ryder
Worst case : Michael Johnson, Likely : Unknown , Best Case : Adam Goodes
C Dempsey
Worst case : Raph Clarke, Likely : X Clarke, Best Case : Grant Birchall
J Neagle
Worst case : K McGregor, Likely : P Medhurst, Best Case : R Robertson
S Lonergan
Worst case : Ben Haynes, Likely : Tom Logan, Best Case : A Buchanan

2006
S Gumbleton
Worst case : R Fitzgerald, Likely : D Petrie, Best Case : M Pavlich
L Jetta
Worst case : A Krakour, Likely : A Corrie, Best Case : D Headland
T Hislop
Worst case : D Polo, Likely : Mark Johnson, Best case : Kane Johnson
*Alwyn Davey
- has already shown what he is capable of
B Houli
Worst case : Sam Power, Likely : T Notting, Best case : S Goodwin
K Reimers
Worst case : R Crowley, Likely : Jess Sinclair : Best case : N Foley

2007
D Myers
Worst case : F Ray, Likely : M Priddis, Best case : S Black
T Pears
Worst case : Tom Murphy, Likely : Jay Schultz, Best case : Sam Fisher
D Daniher
Worst case : D Morrell, Likely : Lynden Dunn, Best case : A Daniher
C Hooker
Worst case : Cannot comment, Likely : cannot comment, Best case : B Fisher

 

[daffo]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Liked the post, quite interesting. I fell in love with Myers around the NAB cup time and have been watching him through the bendigo games. I think he'll be up there.

 

[Thrust]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Having seen them all play now with the exception of Hooker you can sometimes get a feel for what they may end up like.

Hmm most of the 'likely's play nothing at all like the players we have here...

 

[Daytripper]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Hmm most of the 'likely's play nothing at all like the players we have here...

Examples ?

 

[bomberstomake8]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

we wont get either rich or hurley they will probably both end up going 2nd and 3rd..

imo we will finish between 12th and 10th..
knights will implement the defensive side to his game plan in the second half of the year, players will get settled in, lucas and gumby come back to help out lloyd..
im not saying we will win a lot but imo we will end the season with around 8 wins..

we dont need to draft anything atm in my opinion
last year we stoked up on defenders in pears, hooker, daniher myers (although he will be used in the midfeild hopefully) and i think we have some star midfeilders in the making. imo hilsop and jetta will be our best midfeilders in 2 years houli will be very good aswell. we will still have mcveigh, i personally think we have the cattle we just need them to develop them effectively..

 

[Burzum]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

we wont get either rich or hurley they will probably both end up going 2nd and 3rd..

imo we will finish between 12th and 10th..
knights will implement the defensive side to his game plan in the second half of the year, players will get settled in, lucas and gumby come back to help out lloyd..
im not saying we will win a lot but imo we will end the season with around 8 wins..

we dont need to draft anything atm in my opinion
last year we stoked up on defenders in pears, hooker, daniher myers (although he will be used in the midfeild hopefully) and i think we have some star midfeilders in the making. imo hilsop and jetta will be our best midfeilders in 2 years houli will be very good aswell. we will still have mcveigh, i personally think we have the cattle we just need them to develop them effectively..

Seriously?

 

[Schmick]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

Is there anyone good enough to knock Rich, Hurley or Natanui out of the top 3? Or is the top 3 basically set?

Because if we did come around 13th or something and missed out on a top 3 pick, it would be nice if we could still pick up someone like Hurley.

 

[foj1]

Re: who would Essendon FC draft if we have Pick 1 in the National Draft

Just a question - what did his 'demolition' job on Kruezer involve? Hitouts? Around the ground?

Ruckman these days cannot simlpy just win the taps, they need to back it up around the ground.



Whoever drafts Naitanui at #1 (if that is the case) will be praying like hell that his potential pays off because if it doesn't and Rich goes on to become a very good player then that club will have massive egg on face - not an ideal time to be the head recruiter.

Further, Naitanui will require bucket loads of development, I truly believe the club he goes to will determine what type of a player he becomes.

Natanui outplayed Kruezer everywhere. True Natanui like all 18 year olds will need development but WA juniors get to play SENIOR football while our juniors are mostly stuck in TAC or worse school footy. They have such an advantage playing against men at an earlier age which does help them with their transition into the AFL. Rich is going to be a great player but we are deficient in all areas and Natanui could be a very special big man.

 

[foj1]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

Is there anyone good enough to knock Rich, Hurley or Natanui out of the top 3? Or is the top 3 basically set?

Because if we did come around 13th or something and missed out on a top 3 pick, it would be nice if we could still pick up someone like Hurley.

On pure talent Chris Yarran could knock off Michael Hurley.
On athleticism and suitability to AFL Jackson Trengove could knock off Michael Hurley.
Tom Hill has a lot of size and is bottom age.
Before injury Swift was way up there as well.
I am not as sold on Hurley as others are because he is already soooooo developed. He is 192 cm and 92 kg. Trengove is about 197cm and 82 kg.
Rich and Natanui are probably certainties for picks 1 and 2. But after that it is a real raffle. For me it is between Trengove, Yarran and Hurley. With myself preferring the first 2 boys.
Hurley has a lot of love on BF and will be a solid AFL citizen but thats how I see it.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Re: who would Essendon FC draft if we have Pick 1 in the National Draft

Natanui outplayed Kruezer everywhere. True Natanui like all 18 year olds will need development but WA juniors get to play SENIOR football while our juniors are mostly stuck in TAC or worse school footy. They have such an advantage playing against men at an earlier age which does help them with their transition into the AFL. Rich is going to be a great player but we are deficient in all areas and Natanui could be a very special big man.

I saw most of that game on TV and thought Kruezer was better around the ground yet Natanui won in the hitouts.

 

[lamaros]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Good post. Here's my view:

Anyway, here is my opinion:

2005
P Ryder
Will be a quality player at worst. Most likely is that he will be a genuine star. At the very best he will be one of the elite players of the competition.
C Dempsey
Worst case for Dempsey is a career that never gets started due to injury. Most likely is that he will be a decent playing. At best he could be a gun.
J Neagle
Worst case for Neagle is a career where he never masters his fitness. Likely is that he will be a decent FF. At best he could be a top forward. Has a great kick, good mark, solid strong body and a great work ethic.
S Lonergan
Lonergan could be a solid quality player who may have a couple of really good years at some point, like JJ & McVeigh. At worst he will go nowhere and be delisted in his mid-late 20's, at best he will have a good run of quality years.

2006
S Gumbleton
Worst is obviously a career dominated by injury. Best is Pavlich/Riewoldt quality.
L Jetta
Could become a star small forward with the ability to run through the midfield. A stronger, tougher version of Lovett (though with a little less genuine class). At worst will stay a decent small forward.
T Hislop
At best he could be like Hayes or Mitchell. Should make a real go of it most likely.
*Alwyn Davey
Already one of the best small forwards in the game. Could improve even more and have an impact in the midfield (now he is touch and go in there)
B Houli
Could already be at his peak, or could become a genuine star. With experience and awareness of his flaws he should be able to use his profssional attitude to train and fix those weaknesses.
K Reimers
Could add some defensive awareness and hard running to his game to become one of the better midsized backmen in the game. I think he won't get there, but it's possible.

2007
D Myers
Will be a star player. At best he will be as good as Hodge and Judd. And I think he is likely to reach his best.
T Pears
Could become a star defender or even a quality half-forward. Heaps of potential. Heaps. I rate him up near Myers, Ryder and Gumby.
D Daniher
At best will be an excellent CHF/CHB. At worst he should make an AFL career.
C Hooker
No idea. At worst he will get delisted soon.

How good they might be (10=elite, 9=AA, 8=gun, 7=good AFL career, 6=AFL quality):

Myers 9-10
Ryder 8-10
Gumbleton 8-10 (if his body makes it)
Pears 8-9
Hislop 6-10
Neagle 7-9 (if his body makes it)
Houli 7-8
Jetta 6-9
Daniher 6-8
Lonergan 6-8
Dempsey 7-8 (if his body makes it)
Reimers 6-7
Hocking ?

 

[Thrust]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Having seen them all play now with the exception of Hooker you can sometimes get a feel for what they may end up like.

Unfortunately for us there are no Judds or Browns on the horizon. When a player is special you can usually see it straight away (like Ryder) however ours all look good-to medium at best.

Anyway, here is my opinion of what the :
A) worst case scenario is for each player
B) the player they will likely end up being.
C) the best case scenario for each player.

2005

J Neagle
Worst case : K McGregor, Likely : P Medhurst, Best Case : R Robertson

Future full forward, not goal sneak or 3rd high marking tall

S Lonergan
Worst case : Ben Haynes, Likely : Tom Logan, Best Case : A Buchanan

I imagine the best case for him would be full time midfielder in the JJ mould but not as good.

2006
S Gumbleton
Worst case : R Fitzgerald, Likely : D Petrie, Best Case : M Pavlich

I think it's likely that gumby will be greater than Petrie and always play as our CHF

L Jetta
Worst case : A Krakour, Likely : A Corrie, Best Case : D Headland

I would be devasted if Leroy's best possible was Des Headlandish (freo headland)

Also likely he will be better than corrie

T Hislop
Worst case : D Polo, Likely : Mark Johnson, Best case : Kane Johnson

Is this adelaide Kane johnson? I imagine the best case for hislop would be sam mitchellish


K Reimers
Worst case : R Crowley, Likely : Jess Sinclair : Best case : N Foley

Not likely to be anything like sinclair methinks

2007
D Myers
Worst case : F Ray, Likely : M Priddis, Best case : S Black

Priddis is a hard in and under with average disposal, Myers is a classy player with good disposal

T Pears
Worst case : Tom Murphy, Likely : Jay Schultz, Best case : Sam Fisher
Likely Schultz? I don't think Pears will be a dud i think he will be an inferior Wellman

My thoughts, are you comparing the quality of the player or the playing style? If it's player quality disregard

 

[Jono B]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Having seen them all play now with the exception of Hooker you can sometimes get a feel for what they may end up like.

Unfortunately for us there are no Judds or Browns on the horizon. When a player is special you can usually see it straight away (like Ryder) however ours all look good-to medium at best.

Anyway, here is my opinion of what the :
A) worst case scenario is for each player
B) the player they will likely end up being.
C) the best case scenario for each player.

2005
P Ryder
Worst case : Michael Johnson, Likely : Unknown , Best Case : Adam Goodes Circa 2003 (ruckman)
C Dempsey
Worst case : Raph Clarke, Likely : D Pearce, Best Case : S Burgoyne with less polish.
J Neagle
Worst case : K McGregor, Likely : T Boyle, Best Case : Fevola (not sure he can reach those heights)
S Lonergan
Worst case : Ben Haynes, Likely : Tom Logan, Best Case : J Kelly

2006
S Gumbleton
Worst case : A Hansen, Likely : J Kosi, Best Case : N Reiwoldt
L Jetta
Worst case : A Krakour, Likely : A Corrie, Best Case : Leon Davis in good form
T Hislop
Worst case : D Polo, Likely : Mark Johnson, Best case : C Bruce
*Alwyn Davey
- has already shown what he is capable of
B Houli
Worst case : Sam Power, Likely : T Notting, Best case : S Goodwin
K Reimers
Worst case : R Crowley, Likely : Jess Sinclair : Best case : Akermanis

2007
D Myers
Worst case : F Ray, Likely : Birchall, Best case : Goodes (circa 2007)
T Pears
Worst case : Tom Murphy, Likely : Jay Schultz, Best case : Sam Fisher
D Daniher
Worst case : D Morrell, Likely : Lynden Dunn, Best case : A Daniher
C Hooker
Worst case : Cannot comment, Likely : cannot comment, Best case : B Fisher

Brown didn't get a touch in his first game.

I have changed a few of the scenarios.

 

[Daytripper]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

My thoughts, are you comparing the quality of the player or the playing style? If it's player quality disregard

Mate, you are far too bullish with how our draftees will likely turn out.

Going on what Leroy has shown so far, if he turns out to have a career like Headland I would be absoloutly thrilled. Truthfully, I think a Corrie like career is what lies ahead and maybe Leon Davis as Jono B points out in a best possible scenario.

If Myers ends up being like Prriddis then thats a win as far as I'm concerned. Same with the Reimers v Sinclair comparison.

I can't see Jay Neagle being a future full forward. Has got Russell Robertson or Paul Medhurst written all over him in my opinion. Thats the best case scenario too.

 

[Smyth94]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Mate, you are far too bullish with how our draftees will likely turn out.

Going on what Leroy has shown so far, if he turns out to have a career like Headland I would be absoloutly thrilled. Truthfully, I think a Corrie like career is what lies ahead and maybe Leon Davis as Jono B points out in a best possible scenario.

If Myers ends up being like Prriddis then thats a win as far as I'm concerned. Same with the Reimers v Sinclair comparison.

I can't see Jay Neagle being a future full forward. Has got Russell Robertson or Paul Medhurst written all over him in my opinion. Thats the best case scenario too.

And look how long it took for Davis to become a good player.

If Myers ends up being like Priddis then I will be very disappointed - surely you jest? I think you rate Priddis way too highly - Priddis is a good player, who can get the pill heaps but does not have class about him.

 

[Daytripper]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

And look how long it took for Davis to become a good player.

If Myers ends up being like Priddis then I will be very disappointed - surely you jest? I think you rate Priddis way too highly - Priddis is a good player, who can get the pill heaps but does not have class about him.

Priddis is a super player. Look how important he is to West Coast.
With him out they were getting belted week after week. He comes back Saturday night and West Coast nearly get up and beat North Melbourne.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

I don't rate Priddis or Sinclair at all.

I would be seriously disappointed if Myers turned out to be like Priddis. I rate Jobe higher than Priddis.

The reason West Coast fell in a heap at the end last year is because players like Priddis aren't good enough.

Sinclair is nothing more than a mature Nash.

 

[Daytripper]

I don't rate Priddis or Sinclair at all.

I would be seriously disappointed if Myers turned out to be like Priddis. I rate Jobe higher than Priddis.

The reason West Coast fell in a heap at the end last year is because players like Priddis aren't good enough.

Sinclair is nothing more than a mature Nash.

Disagree very, very strongly.

 

[Thrust]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

Mate, you are far too bullish with how our draftees will likely turn out.

Going on what Leroy has shown so far, if he turns out to have a career like Headland I would be absoloutly thrilled. Truthfully, I think a Corrie like career is what lies ahead and maybe Leon Davis as Jono B points out in a best possible scenario.

If Myers ends up being like Prriddis then thats a win as far as I'm concerned. Same with the Reimers v Sinclair comparison.

I can't see Jay Neagle being a future full forward. Has got Russell Robertson or Paul Medhurst written all over him in my opinion. Thats the best case scenario too.

I meant our player's don't play like the ones you have cited. I imagine Hislop will be an inferior sam mitchell etc. Neagle an inferior fevola etc.

 

[bomba4eva]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

Seriously?

He is predicting that we will rise one spot on the ladder. That isnt a complete impossibility. We have a few players to come back into the side in the form of Lucas, Dempsey and Gumbleton. If we were to scrape a win somewhere (Im looking at Richmond) players would gain confidence and it is amazing what that could do to the team.
I personally cant see us any higher than 10th. As long as the kids are getting game time I am going to be steadfast in my belief that we will come good sooner rather than later. Taking a look at some of the names on our list there is some real genuine talent there. Might only be me but I can see the formation of a premiership team within the next 5 years. Then again, I am an optimist.

 

[bomba4eva]

Re: realistic appraisal of draft picks over last 3 seasons

I meant our player's don't play like the ones you have cited. I imagine Hislop will be an inferior sam mitchell etc. Neagle an inferior fevola etc.

Great confidence

 

[Schmick]

Re: Essendon will make the top 10

On pure talent Chris Yarran could knock off Michael Hurley.
On athleticism and suitability to AFL Jackson Trengove could knock off Michael Hurley.
Tom Hill has a lot of size and is bottom age.
Before injury Swift was way up there as well.
I am not as sold on Hurley as others are because he is already soooooo developed. He is 192 cm and 92 kg. Trengove is about 197cm and 82 kg.
Rich and Natanui are probably certainties for picks 1 and 2. But after that it is a real raffle. For me it is between Trengove, Yarran and Hurley. With myself preferring the first 2 boys.
Hurley has a lot of love on BF and will be a solid AFL citizen but thats how I see it.

Does Hurley have the attributes to become a A grade backman, or is he better suited up forward? Also, how is his pace off the mark and closing speed?