Discussion Mid-Price Madness....

Jiska

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Moderator #26
You need to get them into the Top 5-10 in their position.

Plenty are capable of it this season but they can be hard to nail.

So if you say only Greene can do it how about Zac Williams down back with Brodie Smith ?

Plenty of others to but if it is not your strategy that is fine and each to their own but forward rookies have just been crap for ages now and i can understand people going premo heavy and mid price loaded to avoid starting more than 1 forward rookie.

They are always easy to shit on though the Mid pricers at this stage of the season.
I don’t count a 400k defender as mid priced. Normally no genuine defender is more than 550k.

If you can nail the midpricers it’s a win, but like I said it’s about 1 to 30 success rate. If you pick one of the 30, you’ll have to spend a trade and miss out on a cash cow. Too risky for mine.
 

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ubeaut

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#27
I’d be surprised if Viney, Libba and Trac are.

Either way, any player not in that list you’ve just put up should be a rookie in your current side. No point spending big bucks on a player you know you’ll have to sideways trade.
You're obviously a fan of the strict traditional guns n rookies approach. Which is fine, but there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The upside of a Libba/Miles type is they can make as much cash or close to as a rookie, while having superior job security and scoring.
With both rookies and mid pricers you're likely to use a trade to upgrade them, but with the right mid pricer u can potentially save a downgrade elsewhere and sideways to a fallen premium.
Say Libba gets to 500k,and say a Neale or Oliver gets injured early in a game and dips close to 500k for example.
Guns n rookies should be a guideline not a strict rule as the right mid pricers can help u get a jump on the pack. Same with the "rules" of SC like "never trade a premo" Look at Coniglio, Brayshaw and Lycett last season. All made heaps of cash, 2 became keepers and the other a handy stepping stone to Grundy, who most people who started a Goldstein/Martin type missed out on. Even JOM made 100k and averaged around 90,which was preferable to a spud like Garlett who did SFA or Freo's Brayshaw who took an eternity to make money.
 
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#28
You're obviously a fan of the strict traditional guns n rookies approach. Which is fine, but there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The upside of a Libba/Miles type is they can make as much cash or close to as a rookie, while having superior job security and scoring.
With both rookies and mid pricers you're likely to use a trade to upgrade them, but with the right mid pricer u can potentially save a downgrade elsewhere and sideways to a fallen premium.
Say Libba gets to 500k,and say a Neale or Oliver gets injured early in a game and dips close to 500k for example.
Guns n rookies should be a guideline not a strict rule as the right mid pricers can help u get a jump on the pack. Same with the "rules" of SC like "never trade a premo" Look at Coniglio, Brayshaw and Lycett last season. All made heaps of cash, 2 became keepers and the other a handy stepping stone to Grundy, who most people who started a Goldstein/Martin type missed out on. Even JOM made 100k and averaged around 90,which was preferable to a spud like Garlett who did SFA or Freo's Brayshaw who took an eternity to make money.
2pm757.jpg
 

Jiska

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Moderator #29
You're obviously a fan of the strict traditional guns n rookies approach. Which is fine, but there is more than one way to skin a cat.
The upside of a Libba/Miles type is they can make as much cash or close to as a rookie, while having superior job security and scoring.
With both rookies and mid pricers you're likely to use a trade to upgrade them, but with the right mid pricer u can potentially save a downgrade elsewhere and sideways to a fallen premium.
Say Libba gets to 500k,and say a Neale or Oliver gets injured early in a game and dips close to 500k for example.
Guns n rookies should be a guideline not a strict rule as the right mid pricers can help u get a jump on the pack. Same with the "rules" of SC like "never trade a premo" Look at Coniglio, Brayshaw and Lycett last season. All made heaps of cash, 2 became keepers and the other a handy stepping stone to Grundy, who most people who started a Goldstein/Martin type missed out on. Even JOM made 100k and averaged around 90,which was preferable to a spud like Garlett who did SFA or Freo's Brayshaw who took an eternity to make money.
Not totally. I’ll take Greene, but only because I think he’s a keeper and will end up in top 10 forwards. For Libba or Miles to make 250k they’d have to average 100+ for 6-8 weeks. Can’t see that happening.

Problem with midpricers is for every success story, there’s another 30 failure stories. Too hard to pick the right midpricer IMO.
 
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#30
Not totally. I’ll take Greene, but only because I think he’s a keeper and will end up in top 10 forwards. For Libba or Miles to make 250k they’d have to average 100+ for 6-8 weeks. Can’t see that happening.

Problem with midpricers is for every success story, there’s another 30 failure stories. Too hard to pick the right midpricer IMO.
IMO the successful Mid Pricers are actually fallen premiums, via injuries .....so we know they can score well

The only problem with libba, is his successful SC period was pre Luke Beveridge ....early in his Coaching career, the gameplan was all about pace & quick ball movement & Libba struggled, not scoring more than an average of 81 since

That said .....did the Bulldogs have that trademark pace & quick movement in 2018?
 

Jiska

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Moderator #31
IMO the successful Mid Pricers are actually fallen premiums, via injuries .....so we know they can score well

The only problem with libba, is his successful SC period was pre Luke Beveridge ....early in his Coaching career, the gameplan was all about pace & quick ball movement & Libba struggled, not scoring more than an average of 81 since

That said .....did the Bulldogs have that trademark pace & quick movement in 2018?
Name the players over the past three years that began the season as a midpricers and ended up in most teams by years end.
 

Jiska

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Moderator #33
Off the Head ...Sicily, Dev Smith, Nankervis, Zach Tuohy
Not many teams finished with Nank or Tuohy (8% each), so they weren’t keepers, people just ran out of trades or abandoned their teams, so really only Sicily and Smith out of dozens of options, which is my point.

You may nail the midpricers, but chances are you probably won’t.
 
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#34
Four examples over three years is exactly my point, although not many teams finished with Nank or Tuohy (8% each), so really Sicily and Smith the only two out of dozens of options.
Yes, but the final sides come R1, normally only contain 3-4 true Mid Pricers

Last year my Mid Pricers were ....Deledio :thumbsu: Sicily :thumbsu: Omera :think: Petracca :thumbsdown:
 

Jiska

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Moderator #35
Yes, but the final sides come R1, normally only contain 3-4 true Mid Pricers

Last year my Mid Pricers were ....Deledio :thumbsu: Sicily :thumbsu: Omera :think: Petracca :thumbsdown:
I just went through 10 pages of sides from the start of last year and listed all the midpricers

Libba
J OMeara
Lobb
Bonner
Hannebery
C Ellis
A Pearce
Christensen
COGS (*)
A Brayshaw (*)
Savage
Petracca
C Curnow
Barlow
Smith (*)
Bryne
Sicily (*)
Rioli
Lycett
Roughhead
Walters
Armitage
Billings (not midpriced, just threw him in for the LOLs)

(*) ended up being keepers (4 out of 22)

Worth noting that Nank was only 15k less than Gawn and priced at 488k; not sure that classes as midpriced. I'm also not convinced that Smith at 440k up forward should be considered as a mid-priced option, but given that's the definition you went with I had to include Walters, Roughy, Savage and Petracca.

If you picked those 4 and none of the others you're a magician. There's a big risk vs reward element and sure, if you nail the picks, it's worth it, but I'd suggest most won't nail it and will instead be left with a spud they'll need to use a trade to move on and miss out on cash cow in the meantime.
 
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#36
Worth noting that Nank was only 15k less than Gawn and priced at 488k; not sure that classes as midpriced. I'm also not convinced that Smith at 440k up forward should be considered as a mid-priced option, but given that's the definition you went with I had to include Walters, Roughy, Savage and Petracca.

If you picked those 4 and none of the others you're a magician. There's a big risk vs reward element and sure, if you nail the picks, it's worth it, but I'd suggest most won't nail it and will instead be left with a spud they'll need to use a trade to move on and miss out on cash cow in the meantime.
I was putting Nankervis in on his 1st year .....which IRC was 3 years ago, under your criteria
 

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Jiska

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Moderator #37
Yes, but the final sides come R1, normally only contain 3-4 true Mid Pricers

Last year my Mid Pricers were ....Deledio :thumbsu: Sicily :thumbsu: Omera :think: Petracca :thumbsdown:
Omeara was a :thumbsdown:, so a 50% strike rate, which is actually pretty good.

I had five midpricers last year, Sicily, Smith, Ellis, C Maynard, Christensen. Sicily and Smith ended up being keepers, Ellis was dumb, Maynard was a punt and Christensen was so-so. Scored okay and earnt me 150k, but it meant I missed out on ZGL. Luckily for me, last year was a shit year for forward rookies so not much harm done.
 
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#38
Omeara was a :thumbsdown:, so a 50% strike rate, which is actually pretty good.

I had five midpricers last year, Sicily, Smith, Ellis, C Maynard, Christensen. Sicily and Smith ended up being keepers, Ellis was dumb, Maynard was a punt and Christensen was so-so. Scored okay and earnt me 150k, but it meant I missed out on ZGL. Luckily for me, last year was a shit year for forward rookies so not much harm done.
You're right with Omeara from the perspective my choice was Omeara or Cogs ......really bad choice in the end
 

Andrew Birch

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#39
I just went through 10 pages of sides from the start of last year and listed all the midpricers

Libba
J OMeara
Lobb
Bonner
Hannebery
C Ellis
A Pearce
Christensen
COGS (*)
A Brayshaw (*)
Savage
Petracca
C Curnow
Barlow
Smith (*)
Bryne
Sicily (*)
Rioli
Lycett
Roughhead
Walters
Armitage
Billings (not midpriced, just threw him in for the LOLs)

(*) ended up being keepers (4 out of 22)

Worth noting that Nank was only 15k less than Gawn and priced at 488k; not sure that classes as midpriced. I'm also not convinced that Smith at 440k up forward should be considered as a mid-priced option, but given that's the definition you went with I had to include Walters, Roughy, Savage and Petracca.

If you picked those 4 and none of the others you're a magician. There's a big risk vs reward element and sure, if you nail the picks, it's worth it, but I'd suggest most won't nail it and will instead be left with a spud they'll need to use a trade to move on and miss out on cash cow in the meantime.
You forgot McLean (470k) who started 8k cheaper than Walters. Also Dunkley 296k ended up a keeper. I'd also consider Lloyd a mid pricer 479k (just)

I started with 8 mid-pricers/fallen premo's. Only regret was trading out Dunkley before he went bananas & Shaw over Lloyd. The rest all served their purpose. #MidPriceMadness4Lyfe

Shaw 458k (91 ave)
Sicily 403k (105 ave)
Cogs 452k (108 ave)
Walters 478k (traded him out at 100 ave and 25k profit)
McLean 470k (95 ave)
D Smith 439k (98 ave)
Dunkley 296k (95 ave) although I did trade him out when he was dropped for 3rds before his midfield move. FU Bevo. Still made 100k profit
Christensen 267k (73 ave) traded out when averaging 78 in Rd11 for a 100k profit

Had Gus Brayshaw in my team just before Rd1 but switched him to Dunkley when Gus wasn't named. Brought him in Rd10 for 420k for most of his good scores.
 

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Moderator #41
You forgot McLean (470k) who started 8k cheaper than Walters. Also Dunkley 296k ended up a keeper. I'd also consider Lloyd a mid pricer 479k (just)

I started with 8 mid-pricers/fallen premo's. Only regret was trading out Dunkley before he went bananas & Shaw over Lloyd. The rest all served their purpose. #MidPriceMadness4Lyfe

Shaw 458k (91 ave)
Sicily 403k (105 ave)
Cogs 452k (108 ave)
Walters 478k (traded him out at 100 ave and 25k profit)
McLean 470k (95 ave)
D Smith 439k (98 ave)
Dunkley 296k (95 ave) although I did trade him out when he was dropped for 3rds before his midfield move. FU Bevo. Still made 100k profit
Christensen 267k (73 ave) traded out when averaging 78 in Rd11 for a 100k profit

Had Gus Brayshaw in my team just before Rd1 but switched him to Dunkley when Gus wasn't named. Brought him in Rd10 for 420k for most of his good scores.
No-one had Dunkley in the ten pages I went through, but yes, he was a success. There’s no way Lloyd was a midpricer at 479k when the most expensive defender (IIRC) was Laird on 550k.

I suppose we need to defined what classified as a midpricer because I wouldn’t have ranked Smith, Walters or McLean in the midprice category.

IMO it would be something like this:
DEF: <400k
MID: <500k
RUCK: <450k
FWD: <400k
 

Andrew Birch

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#42
No-one had Dunkley in the ten pages I went through, but yes, he was a success. There’s no way Lloyd was a midpricer at 479k when the most expensive defender (IIRC) was Laird on 550k.

I suppose we need to defined what classified as a midpricer because I wouldn’t have ranked Smith, Walters or McLean in the midprice category.

IMO it would be something like this:
DEF: <400k
MID: <500k
RUCK: <450k
FWD: <400k
Yeah your criteria is fair enough. I arbitrarily class players across all lines priced between 220k - 480k as mid-pricers. A realistic cut-off for Defs and Fwds should probably be around 450k though. 401k is not premium on any line IMO as it is based on a sub 80 average
 

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#43
I'm actually starting to side with the Jiska campaigner in relation to mid pricers :):gun:

I only really want someone who could potentially be a keeper in their position.


Hanners has form... but 2 years of him being a soft crab has put me off, personally. Seems the "pick" of the bunch though. Will consider.

Libba had 2 premo seasons in 2013 and 2014, but his past 2 full seasons are well below keeper territory, (90 and 79)

Crouch has never averaged more than 96.

Miles combined ave over the past 3 seasons is 83.


So you're essentially picking them for a 70-90 ave, and pocketing whatever cash they make. Realistically that is the best case scenario.
 

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#44
I'm actually starting to side with the Jiska campaigner in relation to mid pricers :):gun:

I only really want someone who could potentially be a keeper in their position.


Hanners has form... but 2 years of him being a soft crab has put me off, personally. Seems the "pick" of the bunch though. Will consider.

Libba had 2 premo seasons in 2013 and 2014, but his past 2 full seasons are well below keeper territory, (90 and 79)

Crouch has never averaged more than 96.

Miles combined ave over the past 3 seasons is 83.


So you're essentially picking them for a 70-90 ave
, and pocketing whatever cash they make. Realistically that is the best case scenario.
Big if but BCrouch is capable of breaking out to 105+ if he has a strong, uninterrupted pre-season
 

Jiska

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Moderator #45
Yeah your criteria is fair enough. I arbitrarily class players across all lines priced between 220k - 480k as mid-pricers. A realistic cut-off for Defs and Fwds should probably be around 450k though. 401k is not premium on any line IMO as it is based on a sub 80 average
450k probably about right. I don’t see McGovern/Andrews/Webster as def midpricers at 480k, nor Walters/Wingard/Boak up forward. Agree 401k isn’t really a premium.

This year, though, there’s quite a few forwards and defenders over 550k which isn’t the norm most years.
 

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#50
At this stage going with Brouch, Mumford, Greene.

Got burned with my mid pricers last year, but also with my premiums too. Petracca, Acres, Rioli, Sav + No Smith and late onto Cogs and Sicily, who was then injured for finals.
 
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