Analysis Mid-Season Review

[samFFC]

Only two sides in the past 45 years have won a premiership scoring under 100 points per game. There have been many more sides defensively poorer than the standard to win a premiership in that time. Defence matters less than offence in AFL.

By its nature Australian footy is a high scoring sport (no offside rule, infinite vertical target for scoring, no designated goal keeper). To win the premiership you have to score highly.

The 94 points per game is only two points better than last year (despite missing Walters for the majority of the year and playing only one key tall).

Well let's see what the end of the year brings. Thus far we have played all of last season's top 10 (bar Hawthorn). Let's see how things go after we play Carlton, Brisbane etc. at home. What's to say Freo won't be averaging closer to 100 PPG?

 

[XXRL]

Well let's see what the end of the year brings. Thus far we have played all of last season's top 10 (bar Hawthorn). Let's see how things go after we play Carlton, Brisbane etc. at home. What's to say Freo won't be averaging closer to 100 PPG?

Absolutely. You really need a larger sample size given the anomalies of the fixture thus far.

Further, those stats give too much weight to beating up on lowly teams (by a large margin), rather than beating good teams, (even if by a small margin). So because West Coast have had some massive wins at home against average teams, they're now more likely for the flag than us or Sydney?

Freo's 'points for' stat could be higher if we didn't take the foot off the pedal against Essendon or WCE, or if the conditions or our conversion was better at the gold coast game.

While I would argue the analysis is too simplistic, I acknowledge that Hawthorn are the standard and the team the others are chasing, mainly due to their attacking firepower. But I would reject the assertion that Sydney or Freo can't win the flag this year and WC and Collingwood can.

 

[ydraw]

We also had 2 outlier low scoring games played in terrible conditions in our 11 games.

 

[clogged]

We also had 2 outlier low scoring games played in terrible conditions in our 11 games.

Take out those and it's still only 94 points per game, two points better than the average for 2014.

The Squiggle attempts to remove bias of the fixture by weighting scores based on the quality of opponent, and has not ranked Freo better at scoring all year.

 

[XXRL]

According to the Squiggle, Collingwood are nowhere near the top right quadrant of premiers.

Interesting that West Coast have now pushed across that frontier.

For me, there are four teams in the premiership race in the following order of favouritism: Hawthorn first, Sydney/Freo second/third (not sure which order), West Coast (fourth).

 

[samFFC]

Take out those and it's still only 94 points per game, two points better than the average for 2014.

The Squiggle attempts to remove bias of the fixture by weighting scores based on the quality of opponent, and has not ranked Freo better at scoring all year.

Squiggle has Eagles winning the GF. And Eagles beating Freo by 2 points in a derby at Subi.

I love the squiggle but the weighting looks pretty out this year. Not surprised given the variability in results from week to week.
eg Geelong a top 6 team one week, lose to Melbourne at home next week.

Eg What's a win against GWS worth so far this year? How to adjust for that? And now results from here on out? Is WC better than Hawks because they won by miles and Hawks lost in Sydney?

Need at least another month to work these issues. By that time we play Collingwood Hawks and richmond; pies have their tough month etc.

 

[armpit]

At the beginning of the year against the better teams, we played our attacking game and blew teams out of the water. Was it because we were fitter at that stage of the season, because of our stepped up pre season or was our attacking game that good? I like to think it's because we were that good. In the games since, against the lesser lights, I reckon we have been trying to win by playing purely defensively, which is why the games have looked ugly and been too close for comfort. Hopefully it's making us game hardened though and is practice for playing under pressure.

Watching the player stats, it's also possible that rather than driving our players into the ground, by not resting them, like some fear, we are actually resting players within the game. We also seem to often have players out of position. It must confound any couch trying to work us out. I think our team is full of hidden tricks. Who even knows what our best 22 are?

Call me pollyanna or plain misguided. Up until Thursday night I will hold my thoughts. Hopefully we come out and play the right combination of attacking and defensive footy and put a thrill through through the competition again.

 

[clogged]

Squiggle has Eagles winning the GF. And Eagles beating Freo by 2 points in a derby at Subi.

I love the squiggle but the weighting looks pretty out this year. Not surprised given the variability in results from week to week.
eg Geelong a top 6 team one week, lose to Melbourne at home next week.

Eg What's a win against GWS worth so far this year? How to adjust for that? And now results from here on out? Is WC better than Hawks because they won by miles and Hawks lost in Sydney?

Need at least another month to work these issues. By that time we play Collingwood Hawks and richmond; pies have their tough month etc.

Final Siren has said he believes the finals prediction method is highly flawed. I don't really rate the prediction of the Squiggle, but as a rating of form I think it's pretty good.

 

[armpit]

Final Siren has said he believes the finals prediction method is highly flawed. I don't really rate the prediction of the Squiggle, but as a rating of form I think it's pretty good.

How many good wins would it take to see us move vertically on the squiggle and be threatening in our attacking ams?

 

[samFFC]

Final Siren has said he believes the finals prediction method is highly flawed. I don't really rate the prediction of the Squiggle, but as a rating of form I think it's pretty good.

Yep fair point.
Eagles are down to win the GF primarily because they are predicted to beat us. 72-74 at Subi.

Means they get home PF and then a GF spot from there.

So the form side of things is the issue here. But agree the top 4 as it is currently predicting. Geelong into the 8 I agree with too.

 

[youmewe]

Squiggle has Eagles winning the GF. And Eagles beating Freo by 2 points in a derby at Subi.

I love the squiggle but the weighting looks pretty out this year. Not surprised given the variability in results from week to week.
eg Geelong a top 6 team one week, lose to Melbourne at home next week.

Eg What's a win against GWS worth so far this year? How to adjust for that? And now results from here on out? Is WC better than Hawks because they won by miles and Hawks lost in Sydney?

Need at least another month to work these issues. By that time we play Collingwood Hawks and richmond; pies have their tough month etc.

Well there's your problem.

Time to abandon the squiggle and follow the Holy Gourd of Jerusalem...or is the Shoe the Sign?

 

[armpit]

Well there's your problem.

Time to abandon the squiggle and follow the Holy Gourd of Jerusalem...or is the Shoe the Sign?

haha cast down the shoes and follow the gourd. Nice try love.