Analysis Midfield, Ruck and On-ball - A bull and some class? Depth ruck?

[Lore]

Been working on this for a little while. This chart is of our clearances in 2017.

• They're represented as a percentage of total clearances per game, so that thin black line straight through the middle at 50% is the pass mark, effectively.
• You can look up in the data sheet (or mouse over any point on any players' line) to find the actual number of clearances by that player in that game.
• Players who average 2 or more clearances per game have their own section, if they average 1-2 they're in a different section, and the rest are in the third section.
• These sections are stacked so together the coloured ones are all of Essendon's clearances, with the grey section that covers the top of the graph being the oppositions' clearances in that week.
• Total clearances are at the bottom of the data sheet if you want absolute figures.
• Players are sorted by their average clearances, except the ruckmen who are clumped together instead of mixed in with the mids.
• The black line charted over the entire graph is the hit-outs won as a percentage of total hit outs.
• The white line charted over the entire graph is our score as a percentage.

Stuff it tells us:

• You can see as the chemistry between the ruck and the mids improves, so does the correlation between the hit-outs and the clearances.
• Likewise, as the chemistry between the inside and outside mids improves, so does the correlation between winning clearances and winning games.
• The correlation between score line and clearances also shows how often we were outplayed in particular parts of the ground and whether we could counter it in other parts:
  • Lost the clearances but won the game, beaten in the middle but probably won it off rebound and getting loose on the wings or through the corridor.
  • Won the clearances but lost the game, probably couldn't counter their rebound.
• McKernan clears the ball himself when he plays ruck, but when he is rucking the players around him win it a lot less, which more than counters the ones he wins himself. So basically five clearances forward, fifteen steps back.
• You can see how often our midfield wins the clearances as a group (that is, just the players who have their own sections), versus winning the clearances with the help of the rest of the team rotating through there, or straight up losing the stat altogether.
• When the midfield group are collectively winning less than a third or even just a quarter of the total clearances in a game, I think that's a pretty clear deficiency.
• No Jobe, lose the clearances, probably lose the game. Likewise if Jobe not in good form that day.
• Add Myers, win more clearances than otherwise. When Myers' came into a bit of form later in the year you can see his improvement as well. You can also see which games he was playing as a tagger xD
• Parish, Goddard, Myers and Merrett seem to have roughly the same amount of clearances in each game between them, which is probably representative of the amount of midfield minutes they each had. (Myers coming into form and Goddard playing more in defence, Merrett being tagged and Parish takes up the midfield duties, etc.)

 

[JayJ20]

So how will we fix our midfield problems next year? Doesn't look like we're trading in any mids.

Do we hope that Laverde and Langford have a Matt Crouch-like rise next year? Is it realistic?
Can Parish be that Oliver-like in and under ball winner/clearance player?
How much impact can McGrath have in the midfield?
Can Heppell improve his contested game?
Will Stringer play in a Martin like role?
Will Mutch, Clarke or Begley play a role?

How do we improve our defensive game? We've bolstered our attack throughout the field, but our defensive game is still a little suspect.

Our forwardline mostly improved from within. We found Fantasia and Walla with Daniher taking his game to another level. Two years ago, it was our weakness. Next year, it looks to be the best in the league. Can we do the same with our midfield?

Despite not trading in any mids, our midfield will look fairly different. Laverde, Langford, McGrath and even Parish will have new roles. Thoughts?

 

[blitzer]

So how will we fix our midfield problems next year? Doesn't look like we're trading in any mids.

Do we hope that Laverde and Langford have a Matt Crouch-like rise next year? Is it realistic?
Can Parish be that Oliver-like in and under ball winner/clearance player?
How much impact can McGrath have in the midfield?
Can Heppell improve his contested game?
Will Stringer play in a Martin like role?
Will Mutch, Clarke or Begley play a role?

How do we improve our defensive game? We've bolstered our attack throughout the field, but our defensive game is still a little suspect.

Our forwardline mostly improved from within. We found Fantasia and Walla with Daniher taking his game to another level. Two years ago, it was our weakness. Next year, it looks to be the best in the league. Can we do the same with our midfield?

Despite not trading in any mids, our midfield will look fairly different. Laverde, Langford, McGrath and even Parish will have new roles. Thoughts?

My take would be:
Laverde and Langford won't get anywhere near Matt Crouch levels next year - I expect them to be solid AFL players though and will get regular games. Hopefully Laverde can actually put together his first full season.

Parish whilst not a big inside bull I think will win a lot of ball around the clearances and get even better at gathering the ball with speed at the clearances. He'll be one of our main clearance winners next year.

I think we saw in the last few games that McGrath has the ability and running capacity to be a midfielder who can pick the ball up cleanly off the deck and run both ways. That said he won the rising star last year so expectations are high and he's a second year player moving to a new role. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to take the competition by storm next year but he'll be handy in there.

Heppell absolutely has another level in him. He wasn't even able to train fully towards the end of the season. He was also too light I thought for the entire season particularly as he's probably going into the season as our main man around the clearances.

Doesn't sound like Stringer is capable of that. Maybe in short bursts but not week in week out as a primary midfielder.

I hope Mutch and Begley play significant roles next year. The issue for them both is they will need to earn a spot as midfielders. Begley mostly played forward for us but if we pick up Smith/Stringer there probably isn't room as a forward - not unless we decide we are so stacked that we move Fantasia to a wing (which could actually be a good move). Mutch is a good option for a wing/link man type role. Not sure he will start in the best 22. Needs to beat out Colyer.

 

[JayJ20]

My take would be:
Laverde and Langford won't get anywhere near Matt Crouch levels next year - I expect them to be solid AFL players though and will get regular games. Hopefully Laverde can actually put together his first full season.

Parish whilst not a big inside bull I think will win a lot of ball around the clearances and get even better at gathering the ball with speed at the clearances. He'll be one of our main clearance winners next year.

I think we saw in the last few games that McGrath has the ability and running capacity to be a midfielder who can pick the ball up cleanly off the deck and run both ways. That said he won the rising star last year so expectations are high and he's a second year player moving to a new role. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to take the competition by storm next year but he'll be handy in there.

Heppell absolutely has another level in him. He wasn't even able to train fully towards the end of the season. He was also too light I thought for the entire season particularly as he's probably going into the season as our main man around the clearances.

Doesn't sound like Stringer is capable of that. Maybe in short bursts but not week in week out as a primary midfielder.

I hope Mutch and Begley play significant roles next year. The issue for them both is they will need to earn a spot as midfielders. Begley mostly played forward for us but if we pick up Smith/Stringer there probably isn't room as a forward - not unless we decide we are so stacked that we move Fantasia to a wing (which could actually be a good move). Mutch is a good option for a wing/link man type role. Not sure he will start in the best 22. Needs to beat out Colyer.

Agree on most points, although I doubt Begley or Mutch will get a lot of game time unless they are best 22.

Parish probably played one of his best games for us in the EF.

14 contested possessions and 8 clearances. was our best mid

 

[eth-dog]

People are whinging about the back line. However this year we've gone 53, 56 and 56 inside 50's conceded. We have gone 60, 45 and 44 inside 50's given. The answer is obviously in the middle. Our midfield's defensive pressure is still poor and we don't get it forward enough. Biggest issue in our team. This week will be a massive challenge, against Wines, Boak, Rockliff, Gray, Wingard.

 

[BrunoV]

What gives to get players who might be able to win a clearance into the side?

We don't have one player that is close to A grade as a clearance player.

We probably need 4. One or two might be playing and can develop to the required level.

 

[Dons4days]

What gives to get players who might be able to win a clearance into the side?

We don't have one player that is close to A grade as a clearance player.

We probably need 4. One or two might be playing.

I'd be targeting Will Brodie this off-season. Not getting a game at GC at the moment.

 

[adsla69k]

I'd be targeting Will Brodie this off-season. Not getting a game at GC at the moment.

Yeah I'd chase Brodie and get Cass Parish as a rookie. Both know how to win a hard ball. We need someone not scared to win a hardball and mess up their hair and look at themselves on the replay board after a nice handball. They both don't have many tricks but we need players to stick to their tasks and perform a role. I also rate their personalities. We really ****ed up missing out on Worpel in last years draft. Back to Parish I noticed he didnt play round 1 in the VFL and not sure about this weekend just gone but If he cant make it into Werribees midfield something is wrong with him. Eeek

 

[BrunoV]

I'd be targeting Will Brodie this off-season. Not getting a game at GC at the moment.

First step is to have a look at the players we have on the list.

Mutch, for example, could be someone who can grow into the role though give his age and body type he'll start more as a Heppell style player. Clarke is another natural midfielder and plays with genuine grunt and aggression. They're also both great runners and are in the top few in the 2km time trial (which is important).

Laverde had the ability to break a stoppage open and is pure class by foot (as long as it's not a set shot for goal). Guelfi is aggressive and seems to be doing more right than wrong.

Langford, as a style of player, is similar to Jobe and is growing into that sort of player (though he's probably 5kgs away).

Guelfi is 21. Langford and Laverde are 22 this year. They're well and truly capable of developing into best 22 mids in the next 12 months. At some point they'll need opportunities.

We can stay bound to a midfield mix that will never work.

 

[calyam]

Heppell has shown an ability to win clearances inside and shovel the ball out to our runners. He played his best footy in that role during 2014 and 2015. He is probably our best option for a Jobe-like inside midfielder.

What we lack is someone to do the grunt work. Myers does this on occasion but he is inconsistent / injury-prone and is not a reliable choice going forward. We need someone who is ready to block and protect our gun midfielders; free up Merrett and Heppell so they can successfully clear the ball. We cannot keep running a small midfield, while trying to force guys like Stringer into roles they don't have the aptitude for.

The obvious candidate is Laverde. If he makes it at AFL level it won't be as a forward (there is too much competition for spots) but we have a glaring need for a bid body willing to sacrifice his own personal stats for the good of the team. Laverde can play that enforcer role; he has the size and aggressiveness to make it work as an inside midfielder. What he lacks is the continuity and experience and that should really be an emphasis for the VFL coaches going forward.

 

[BrunoV]

Heppell has shown an ability to win clearances inside and shovel the ball out to our runners. He played his best footy in that role during 2014 and 2015. He is probably our best option for a Jobe-like inside midfielder.

What we lack is someone to do the grunt work. Myers does this on occasion but he is inconsistent / injury-prone and is not a reliable choice going forward. We need someone who is ready to block and protect our gun midfielders; free up Merrett and Heppell so they can successfully clear the ball. We cannot keep running a small midfield, while trying to force guys like Stringer into roles they don't have the aptitude for.

The obvious candidate is Laverde. If he makes it at AFL level it won't be as a forward (there is too much competition for spots) but we have a glaring need for a bid body willing to sacrifice his own personal stats for the good of the team. Laverde can play that enforcer role; he has the size and aggressiveness to make it work as an inside midfielder. What he lacks is the continuity and experience and that should really be an emphasis for the VFL coaches going forward.

Jobe-like is not Heppell's game and never was.

Langford, for example, would already be heavier than Heppell and is still filling out.

 

[citizen-erased]

People are whinging about the back line. However this year we've gone 53, 56 and 56 inside 50's conceded. We have gone 60, 45 and 44 inside 50's given. The answer is obviously in the middle. Our midfield's defensive pressure is still poor and we don't get it forward enough. Biggest issue in our team. This week will be a massive challenge, against Wines, Boak, Rockliff, Gray, Wingard.

We had a great backline a few years back.
Its still good, but not as good.

Certainly done no favours by our midfield.
Whereas we rush our forward entries because we are given no time, our opponents can pick and choose who is best to deliver the ball to and decide where to put the ball accordingly.

No clearance/inside mid stops that.
Tackling and pressure stop it.

Tackling and pressure acts need to be key metric for our players.
And those not meeting it can be dropped.