Minor Premiers - a cautionary tale

[GastevsBeard]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

 

[tugga]

We will tank our last two and finish 2nd.

 

[GastevsBeard]

We will tank our last two and finish 2nd.

tanking done right

 

[Truetiger]

Let’s change history then. Get it done tigers lol. No reason we can’t go B2B

 

[parmy2balmey]

just win another 5 in a row at the G please

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Couldn't care less, really. Doubt the club cares at all.

 

[Tiges1229]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

If we play like 2017 finals series we win simple as that , if we don’t then I rekon it’s 50/50 and we are beatable .

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

With the way the finals/top 4 system is structured you’d expect the top team to win about 25% of the time. Maybe a bit higher due to home ground advantages through the finals. Looking at that, the top team has won 20% of the time. Not that crazy really.

Extend back two years and it’s 4/12. Go back another 2 and it’s 5/14. Getting up around 33% which is around or above what you’d expect.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

The G is our home though so all good

 

[parmy2balmey]

happy to take a red card but i don’t think we will win it this year anyway, the goal kicking spread just isn’t there this year, martin, cotch, shedda, lambo not hitting the scoreboard with enough frequency and butler is a big loss, no wild card to play (towner). someone will blank us or we’ll kick ourselves out of it with shithouse conversion at the wrong time. giants or eagles. maybe we’ll grind out a dour victory with the pressure game

 

[peterbuch74]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

And of those minor premiers only Collingwood and Hawthorn have the MCG as their home ground. 6 of the 10 premiers are MCG co-tennants, 8 if you count Geelong

 

[tony__montana]

Yeah i recall this being mentioned several weeks ago - think it was on the couch or footy classified.

Its good to know to keep you grounded(not that we have this problem, havent seen a more humble group tbh).

 

[Sir_Loin]

happy to take a red card but i don’t think we will win it this year anyway, the goal kicking spread just isn’t there this year, martin, cotch, shedda, lambo not hitting the scoreboard with enough frequency and butler is a big loss, no wild card to play (towner). someone will blank us or we’ll kick ourselves out of it with shithouse conversion at the wrong time. giants or eagles. maybe we’ll grind out a dour victory with the pressure game

Or we’ll fluke a day when we bring our kicking boots and kick 18.6

 

[tunksy]

Now i got a sinking feeling god damn it

 

[caddyjack]

History said last year that Richmond doesn't win finals either.... we all know how that ended up.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

All in the past, not our fault past minor premiers got found out.

 

[MosquitoBrigade]

Time to buck the trend and be the worst team in the last 10yrs to win the minor premiership and premiership in one year.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Interesting stat. What I'd like to know is how often a team as dominant in their year as we are gets knocked off.

Many years the top 2/3 are very close and it's a toss up between them. Not really this year - so far anyway.

But a very good stat for Dimma to use as motivation. Stay hungry boys, or we are in trouble.

 

[chriso11]

Stats are irrelevant
Only need to go on a 4 game win streak to end the season, which has no relation to where you finish on ladder

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

We can go to the next level.Apart from Wcst to a degree every other side have to be at whatever level they can get too 6 weeks out.
They will be mentally & physically stuffed by finals.

 

[Tforce]

Couldn't care less, really. Doubt the club cares at all.

See, respectfully, I think you may be wrong. In fact if we do finish top, I think these stats would be brought up to keep the boys minds on the job ahead.

 

[exceptional design]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

Looks like Collingwood had injuries in 2011 also.

 

[exceptional design]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

Apart from Sydney in 2012 & Bulldogs in 2016, All the other premiers consider the MCG as a home ground at least in finals.

 

[Shazza_]

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond
2018 Richmond Richmond

updated the list for you as it was outdated

 

[RunningBounce]

Might be an element whether the premiers are being the "hunter" or the "hunted"?

In 2008, I reckon Hawthorn set themselves to beat the Cats, while the Cats had to prepare for whoever came at them. Possibly the same in 2012. And maybe again in 2015 with Lyin's "we'll play anyone anywhere" Dockers. Make no mistake that the better coaches will be concentrating their efforts on how to beat Richmond this season.

H&A wins count for SFA on the last day in September. All premiers need a dash of luck.

The only thing we can count on is a double chance and the Tigers playing fierce footy.