Minor Premiership / Best % = Premiers? (1990-2017)

[BenBronx]

It goes without saying that Richmond look set to win the minor premiership and have the best percentage after round 19. They are considered by many as favourites to go back-to-back and win the flag. It got me wondering since the VFL became the AFL how often a team that won the minor premiership and/or had the best percentage had gone on to win the AFL Grand Final since the first AFL season in 1990.

It turns out that only a third of minor Premiers have gone on to win the flag in the same year (nine times in 27 years). Interestingly enough just a third of the teams with the best percentage went on to win the flag in the same season (also nine times in 27 years).

Perhaps history shows proof that the Premiership is won by the best team in September and not the best team year round...

1990
Best %: Essendon
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Collingwood

1991
Best %: West Coast
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: Hawthorn

1992
Best %: Geelong
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: West Coast

1993
Best %: North Melbourne
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon

1994
Best %: Carlton
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast

1995
Best %: Carlton
Minor Premiers: Carlton
Premiers: Carlton

1996
Best %: North Melbourne
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: North Melbourne

1997
Best %: Adelaide
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Adelaide

1998
Best %: Adelaide
Minor Premiers: North Melbourne
Premiers: Adelaide

1999
Best %: Brisbane
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: North Melbourne

2000
Best %: Essendon
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon

2001
Best %: Essendon
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Brisbane Lions

2002
Best %: Brisbane
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane

2003
Best %: Port Adelaide
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane

2004
Best %: Brisbane
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Port Adelaide

2005
Best %: Adelaide
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Sydney

2006
Best %: Adelaide
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast

2007
Best %: Geelong
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Geelong

2008
Best %: Geelong
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Hawthorn

2009
Best %: St Kilda
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Geelong

2010
Best %: Geelong
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Collingwood

2011
Best %: Collingwood
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Geelong

2012
Best %: Hawthorn
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Sydney

2013
Best %: Hawthorn
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Hawthorn

2014
Best %: Sydney
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Hawthorn

2015
Best %: Hawthorn
Minor Premiers: Fremantle
Premiers: Hawthorn

2016
Best %: Sydney
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Western Bulldogs

2017
Best %: Adelaide
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Richmond

 

[Craze]

Debunks the myth that Adelaide in '97/'98 were a crap team that got lucky.

Still a massive advantage to finish 1st or 2nd

 

[BenBronx]

This is a list of where teams finished on the ladder in the year they won the flag...

1990 - Collingwood (2nd)
1991 - Hawthorn (2nd)
1992 - West Coast (4th)
1993 - Essendon (1st)
1994 - West Coast (1st)
1995 - Carlton (1st)
1996 - North Melbourne (2nd)
1997 - Adelaide (4th)
1998 - Adelaide (5th)
1999 - North Melbourne (2nd)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (2nd)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (3rd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (3rd)
2006 - West Coast (1st)
2007 - Geelong (1st)
2008 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2009 - Geelong (2nd)
2010 - Collingwood (1st)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (3rd)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2015 - Hawthorn (3rd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (7th)
2017 - Richmond (3rd)

Grand Final Winners By Ladder Position:
1st - 9
2nd - 10
3rd - 5
4th - 1
5th - 1
6th - 0
7th - 1
8th - 0

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

There's a logical fallacy in the poll, and to lesser extent in the OP, ie, If the minor premier and premier aren't the same then the H/A season has no bearing.
Of course the ******* H/A season has a bearing, you cant play finals without finishing in the top 8, and your chances improve a lot if you finish close to the top.

 

[Andre]

Although not directly related to odds of wining the flag, unsurprisingly those sides that managed to sweep minor premiers, best % and premier are (IMO) the most dominate seasons put together by teams (across a single year) since the AFL - Carlton 95, Essendon 2000, Geelong 2007, Hawks 2013. Richmond's on track to join that illustrious group. Although none of those 4 had such a sharp discrepancy between form at home versus away.

 

[Mofra]

Interesting that the two best teams of the modern era (Hawks & Brisbane threepeats) managed one first position between them over 6 years.

Brisbane tended to have their best side coming together in the weeks leading up to finals (Charman anyone?) and in recent years it's become even more important to time your run at the best time.

 

[Engimal v3]

Perhaps history shows proof that the Premiership is won by the best team in September and not the best team year round...

Of course that's what history shows. However the best team all year round puts itself in the best position to breeze through finals.

 

[SloppyJoe]

1999 the only occasion listed where each criterion has a different team.

 

[The Swert]

It's better to finish 2nd

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

A season is to qualify for the finals. Finals are won on the day, not over a season.

 

[kranky al]

A season is to qualify for the finals. Finals are won on the day, not over a season.

Sort of.

Its still advantageous to win the double chance - neither sydney in 05 nor us in 06 would have won without the double chance - im sure theres more examples.

 

[Dazzler9]

Since the current finals format came in in 2000, only one team has won the flag from outside the top 3. Interesting that a 4th placed side has never achieved it.

 

[iluvparis]

This is a list of where teams finished on the ladder in the year they won the flag...

1990 - Collingwood (2nd)
1991 - Hawthorn (2nd)
1992 - West Coast (4th)
1993 - Essendon (1st)
1994 - West Coast (1st)
1995 - Carlton (1st)
1996 - North Melbourne (2nd)
1997 - Adelaide (4th)
1998 - Adelaide (5th)
1999 - North Melbourne (2nd)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (2nd)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (3rd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (3rd)
2006 - West Coast (1st)
2007 - Geelong (1st)
2008 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2009 - Geelong (2nd)
2010 - Collingwood (1st)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (3rd)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2015 - Hawthorn (3rd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (7th)
2017 - Richmond (3rd)

Grand Final Winners By Ladder Position:
1st - 9
2nd - 10
3rd - 5
4th - 1
5th - 1
6th - 0
7th - 1
8th - 0

This post should have ended the thread - if you can't work out from this that their is a link between H&A performance and winning a flag you should just stop posting

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Since the current finals format came in in 2000, only one team has won the flag from outside the top 3. Interesting that a 4th placed side has never achieved it.

Now you tell us. We're a new club people and we weren't born knowing this stuff.

 

[Dazzler9]

Now you tell us. We're a new club people and we weren't born knowing this stuff.

Sorry, what?

 

[JohnZ]

I think the most important thing to take from this thread is that you cant win a gf from outside the top 8, but you can win a final.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Since the current finals format came in in 2000, only one team has won the flag from outside the top 3. Interesting that a 4th placed side has never achieved it.

The two clubs to make the grand final from fourth both got pretty close to winning though Collingwood in 2002 lost by 9 and Sydney in 2006 lost by 1

 

[Cincinnatus]

Has the narrative ever been about who finishes top?

Top 2 has always been the goal for any side - that means home finals.

Minor premiers is just a nice cherry - does anyone care? No. I certainly dont look back at 2017 and 2005 and think "Gee, at least we won the minor premiership" - I think "Gee, what a wasted opportunity".

The data just shows what we all know. Top 2 is best as it means home finals. Top 4 gives you a double chance. Finish 5th or below if you win its a total anomaly.

Not sure this data proves anything other than what we already know

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Debunks the myth that Adelaide in '97/'98 were a crap team that got lucky.

Still a massive advantage to finish 1st or 2nd

I was just thinking that too.

Shocked to see they had the best percentage both years.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Has the narrative ever been about who finishes top?

Top 2 has always been the goal for any side - that means home finals.

Minor premiers is just a nice cherry - does anyone care? No. I certainly dont look back at 2017 and 2005 and think "Gee, at least we won the minor premiership" - I think "Gee, what a wasted opportunity".

The data just shows what we all know. Top 2 is best as it means home finals. Top 4 gives you a double chance. Finish 5th or below if you win its a total anomaly.

Not sure this data proves anything other than what we already know

To be fair for over half the data finishing positioned mattered a lot due to the MCG contract. In 2002 for instance Brisbane faced the proposition of a home preliminary final in Melbourne until Port shat the bed against us in their qualifying final.

Top 2 might be an even keel now but it wasn’t always the case.

 

[Cincinnatus]

To be fair for over half the data finishing positioned mattered a lot due to the MCG contract. In 2002 for instance Brisbane faced the proposition of a home preliminary final in Melbourne until Port shat the bed against us in their qualifying final.

Top 2 might be an even keel now but it wasn’t always the case.

True enough but the overall trend of premiers coming from the top 2 or 3 has remained since.

As an aside, you have in your count 1 team winning from 4th but list 2 teams (Eagles and Crows) as having done it in the full list. Not tryinf to poke holes, just an FYI.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

True enough but the overall trend of premiers coming from the top 2 or 3 has remained since.

As an aside, you have in your count 1 team winning from 4th but list 2 teams (Eagles and Crows) as having done it in the full list. Not tryinf to poke holes, just an FYI.

It’s not my count?

 

[Cincinnatus]

It’s not my count?

Hmm, awkward.

Well i mean, if you WERE to have made this thread then your total is wrong.

Good save.

 

[VicPark Bitter]

Debunks the myth that Adelaide in '97/'98 were a crap team that got lucky.

Still a massive advantage to finish 1st or 2nd

Adelaide certainly got lucky in 1998,
finish H/A in 5th position, get flogged by 8 goals in the first final, get a second chance the next week.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Maybe you should have worded the poll differently? I mean, OF COURSE your performance during the season has a bearing on finals, that goes without saying, bu then I'm not exactly sure what you're asking. Whether finishing 1st as opposed to say, 2nd or 3rd is a massive advantage? I'd say history shows that finishing at least top 3 (for some reason very few winning from 4th, that in itself is interesting since top 4 all get double chances, and 3rd play also has to play an away qualifying final, although if it's a Melbourne club it may very well still be in Melbourne) seems to predict a high possibility of playing in if not winning a grand final. What's interesting is that it seems just as likely to make it from 3rd as 2nd, whereas it's rare to make it from 4th. I think that is a more interesting discussion.