Remove this Banner Ad

Recommitted Mitch Duncan

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Would be a great swap for Neale, as long as they keep a pick to take a KPF.
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

DBAH0 said:
Duncan's wife gave birth about a year back, maybe he wants to be back home closer to family. He'd also get more bonafide midfield time at Freo than what he's getting at Geelong ATM.

Just hope it doesn't end up being a straight swap for Darcy....
Click to expand...

Duncan's wife is from Geelong and her brother plays for Hawthorn. I doubt there is much pull back to WA.
 
DanA said:
I think if you are working out the price of Duncan then the precedent has been set by Bryce Gibbs who is worth a bit more but at 28, and a quality midfielder is the closest trade to Duncan in the last few years. Given Gibbs went for about 1750 points, I expect Duncan (27 y.o) to get somewhere in the same ball park.

That's the equivalent to pick 6-10 (noting a single pick is worth more). So something like pick 16 and 28 would be about right though Fremantle doesn't have anything in that range.
Click to expand...


Red card ...too much logic
 
Cobbler said:
Usually when using precedents you use a player of equal standing.

Gibbs was Carlton’s captain and best player.

Duncan? Well I forgot he even played for Geelong.
Click to expand...

1. Gibbs was never Captain of Carlton (It's Marc Murphy)
2. Duncan has finished 2nd and 3rd in the B&F the last two season. Gibbs finished as high as 3rd twice but not since 2011.

I think you are severely underrating Duncan. He's statistically one of the best ball users in the AFL and a very consistent player. Gibbs I said was slightly better but the most similar player traded in the last 5 years. I stand by that. I'm hearing Polek will go for pick 14 or so and is uncontracted. I think most would say Duncan is better than him.
 
DanA said:
1. Gibbs was never Captain of Carlton (It's Marc Murphy)
2. Duncan has finished 2nd and 3rd in the B&F the last two season. Gibbs finished as high as 3rd twice but not since 2011.

I think you are severely underrating Duncan. He's statistically one of the best ball users in the AFL and a very consistent player. Gibbs I said was slightly better but the most similar player traded in the last 5 years. I stand by that. I'm hearing Polek will go for pick 14 or so and is uncontracted. I think most would say Duncan is better than him.
Click to expand...

Cool.

Well he ain’t leaving.
 
DanA said:
1. Gibbs was never Captain of Carlton (It's Marc Murphy)
2. Duncan has finished 2nd and 3rd in the B&F the last two season. Gibbs finished as high as 3rd twice but not since 2011.

I think you are severely underrating Duncan. He's statistically one of the best ball users in the AFL and a very consistent player. Gibbs I said was slightly better but the most similar player traded in the last 5 years. I stand by that. I'm hearing Polek will go for pick 14 or so and is uncontracted. I think most would say Duncan is better than him.
Click to expand...

So I crunched the numbers.

You say 16+28=Duncan
Freo supporters want at least 4+22 for Neale.

If we got that deal for Neale...

4+22 for Duncan+Kelly

If Duncan is worth 1744 points (pick 16+28) the left over points in that deal rate Kelly as 1135 which is equal to pick 15.

None of this will happen in real life but how about that Cats fans?
 
raffrox said:
So I crunched the numbers.

You say 16+28=Duncan
Freo supporters want at least 4+22 for Neale.

If we got that deal for Neale...

4+22 for Duncan+Kelly

If Duncan is worth 1744 points (pick 16+28) the left over points in that deal rate Kelly as 1135 which is equal to pick 15.

None of this will happen in real life but how about that Cats fans?
Click to expand...

I think that's fair value for Kelly if he's out of contract, maybe even slight overs but he's not. Right now we have Kelly on his rookie salary which is what? 150k for 2019. We know Westcoast/Freo will offer enough to get band 2 compo (900 points or so) next year. So in terms of value, we're looking at losing Kelly on a 400k discount for the year left on his contract and in exchange for that getting the equivalent of pick 50.

That doesn't represent good value to me. Particularly as I think Geelong (deluded as it might seem) still thinks it will be in a Premiership window. It's hard to see any trade scenario where Geelong benefit that doesn't involve a top 10 pick, and not for the reasons most people are stating. Most of his value comes from his contract being so undervalued in comparison to his output.
 
DanA said:
I think that's fair value for Kelly if he's out of contract, maybe even slight overs but he's not. Right now we have Kelly on his rookie salary which is what? 150k for 2019. We know Westcoast/Freo will offer enough to get band 2 compo (900 points or so) next year. So in terms of value, we're looking at losing Kelly on a 400k discount for the year left on his contract and in exchange for that getting the equivalent of pick 50.

That doesn't represent good value to me. Particularly as I think Geelong (deluded as it might seem) still thinks it will be in a Premiership window. It's hard to see any trade scenario where Geelong benefit that doesn't involve a top 10 pick, and not for the reasons most people are stating. Most of his value comes from his contract being so undervalued in comparison to his output.
Click to expand...

Even when giving you the overvalue you wanted with Duncan (Picks 16 and 28 equals pick 7 by the way) and pick 15 for Kelly it's still a no?

Wow.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Hinkley29 said:
Do you understand how valuable Kelly will be next season on a second year draftee salary?

Think about it.
Click to expand...

I did but thanks.

Here is my post from the Mitch Duncan thread.

raffrox said:
You realise that Geelong is going to have to pony up the cash much sooner rather than later.

Do you really think Kelly is going to be happy making minimum wage? I don't think there's going to be much savings moving forward if at all. If Geelong doesn't renegotiate his contract soon then do you think that's going to keep him happy?

If that's the argument then it's a flawed one unless you're keen to push him back west anyway. What's stopping him asking for a renegotiation and more cash this year?
Click to expand...
 
DanA said:
Re: Duncan.

Find me an equivalent player that has gone for less
Click to expand...

But that's the whole question. Who is an equivalent player?

If Geelong was offered picks 4 and 22 for Duncan and Kelly would they consider it?

Whens the last time a top 5 pick was traded away without at least another pick in the top 10 being involved?
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Obeanie1 said:
Swapping first picks. So 5 swapped for 11.

Sounds like Cats want one of the King brothers with that deal and Freo have agreed to trade Neale to the Lions for pick 4.
Click to expand...

This swapping of R1 picks is really rubbish for us.. Id rather keep our pick ..other keep their pick.. and then when players out of contract look at getting them then.
 
raffrox said:
So I crunched the numbers.

You say 16+28=Duncan
Freo supporters want at least 4+22 for Neale.

If we got that deal for Neale...

4+22 for Duncan+Kelly

If Duncan is worth 1744 points (pick 16+28) the left over points in that deal rate Kelly as 1135 which is equal to pick 15.

None of this will happen in real life but how about that Cats fans?
Click to expand...

no
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Remove this Banner Ad

Similar threads

T
Recommitted Mitch Lewis [UFA 2026]
Replies
2
Views
969
Since 2001
Since 2001
MisterMarcus
Delisted Mitch Hardie
Replies
19
Views
2K
CatToTheFuture
CatToTheFuture

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top