Draft Watcher ModernArtillery 2021 Draft Thread

[DaKids]

Mate, you’re taking these posts rather personally now. And getting nasty about it.

With responses like this, people are going to guess you’re a very, very close family member.

Mate the funny thing is I’ve got absolutely nothing to with him. I’ve just sat and watched over the last 2-3 months as this site has developan absolute set on him - way more so than any other player. And trust me I’ll defend any of them if I think the commentary is unfair.

If you read this site he’s got nothing to offer other than some kind of morbid fascination with watching how far he might drop on draft night. So yeah - I hope he sticks it up the critics and if that’s being nasty then too bad.

Now I came on here today just to help someone out after hearing him on the radio - but sure enough someone wants have a crack.

 

[DaKids]

Serious question, are you related to Roberts in some way?

Nope - wouldn’t know him from a bar of soap.

 

[briztoon]

Mate the funny thing is I’ve got absolutely nothing to with him. I’ve just sat and watched over the last 2-3 months as this site has developan absolute set on him - way more so than any other player. And trust me I’ll defend any of them if I think the commentary is unfair.

If you read this site he’s got nothing to offer other than some kind of morbid fascination with watching how far he might drop on draft night. So yeah - I hope he sticks it up the critics and if that’s being nasty then too bad.

Now I came on here today just to help someone out after hearing him on the radio - but sure enough someone wants have a crack.

As I said, one of your previous posts got rather personal and nasty. That’s not called for here.

He’s not the only kid that has had his warts and all discussed.

But the more often you or anyone else asks about him, the more draft watchers are going to repeat the same thing.

As PMBangers said, critiquing a player isn’t personal.

Nor are draft watchers opinions here going to influence where a kid gets drafted at all.

It’s pretty obvious a team like GWS wouldn’t interview a range of kids, considering where their picks are situated and that they have an academy kid rated as a second round prospect.

They’re a team that are going to focus on drafting for need at their first two picks, and they don’t need another inside mid. Nor are they going to potentially trade back in to the second round and risk losing that pick simply matching a bid on their academy kid.

When draft watchers are discussing kids and teams, they’re taking a whole list of factors in to account, especially around list structure, team needs, and potentially draft strategies based on academy kids.

 

[foodles05]

As I said, one of your previous posts got rather personal and nasty. That’s not called for here.

He’s not the only kid that has had his warts and all discussed.

But the more often you or anyone else asks about him, the more draft watchers are going to repeat the same thing.

As PMBangers said, critiquing a player isn’t personal.

Nor are draft watchers opinions here going to influence where a kid gets drafted at all.

It’s pretty obvious a team like GWS wouldn’t interview a range of kids, considering where their picks are situated and that they have an academy kid rated as a second round prospect.

They’re a team that are going to focus on drafting for need at their first two picks, and they don’t need another inside mid. Nor are they going to potentially trade back in to the second round and risk losing that pick simply matching a bid on their academy kid.

When draft watchers are discussing kids and teams, they’re taking a whole list of factors in to account, especially around list structure, team needs, and potentially draft strategies based on academy kids.

Yeah I must say that I really really like Roberts as a player and would be as high on him as anyone but if there is one list in the AFL he ain't needed it's GWS. That isn't a criticism on him just an acknowledgement that they have a number of very very similar players.

 

[bird_man]

Roberts seems a very similar type to Charlie Constable

33

Charlie Constable

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

12.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

3.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

22.4

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

12.4

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

in his draft year

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Mate the funny thing is I’ve got absolutely nothing to with him. I’ve just sat and watched over the last 2-3 months as this site has developan absolute set on him - way more so than any other player. And trust me I’ll defend any of them if I think the commentary is unfair.

If you read this site he’s got nothing to offer other than some kind of morbid fascination with watching how far he might drop on draft night. So yeah - I hope he sticks it up the critics and if that’s being nasty then too bad.

Now I came on here today just to help someone out after hearing him on the radio - but sure enough someone wants have a crack.

Get a hold of yourself.

 

[foodles05]

Roberts seems a very similar type to Charlie Constable in his draft year

I think there are some pretty significant differences. In the sense that CC ran like 7:15 for his 2k and Matty despite not being able to be fit ran around 6:30. One a decent mover the other just can't move hahaha

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Roberts seems a very similar type to Charlie Constable in his draft year

Roberts testing would indicate hes nowhere near as athletically bad as CC was in his draft year and his disposal is better. I agree they both have concerns around lack of positional versatility though but i would personally still take roberts in the 2nd round.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I think at this point it seems most likely that Jase finds his way to Port in the second half of the draft, particularly when you look at the Power's draft hand. I think he probably needs a few years in the system to develop physically before he's up to AFL footy. His kicking penetration needs work but outside of that I think his skills are up to the level and he can certainly accumulate the footy on the outside. One of those types who I think doesn't necessarily do too much that blows you away but does most things at a high enough level that'll suggest if the physical development comes, he'll be a contributor at AFL level.

At every level, Burgoyne has demonstrated his natural ability to find the football and accumulate possessions on the outside. His work rate to and from the contest allows him to get separation from his opponent and receive the football with time and space. When finding possession in traffic, Burgoyne navigates his way through congestion and patiently waits to make a decision, before delivering accurately by hand or foot. His decision making and composure with ball in hand makes him an effective rebounder out of defence, where he takes his time to assess his options further afield and deliver on target. It’s across half-back where Burgoyne has played his best football, a position he has indicated is his preference at the next level.

Jase Burgoyne Draft Profile

central.rookieme.com

 

[AlbertPower]

Heard Roberts interviewed today and he mentioned Richmond and GWS are the 2 clubs not to have interviewed him at all. When he pushed he mentioned Hawks had shown most interest.

I did hear that at the time. Thanks, and if it helps - I'm sure Roberts will be drafted (in early second, if not before). He won't drop too far. I've watched him play for years at club level and State stuff - I've watched full games, not just a few highlights. If there were any SA lads I'd like to have on my team - Roberts is one of them. Jackson and Horne-Francis are two others. The three of them are very unselfish players and that goes a long way in my assessment of young players.

 

[ModernArtillery]

This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan

I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus

Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn

I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown

Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick

Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr

It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir

21

Aliir Aliir

Age

31

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.2

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

240.9

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

158.4

3star

go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis

I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin

It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner

There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson

There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg

Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean

North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.

 

[freo99]

I think this is an excellent phantom. I do like your reasoning and the way you‘ve commented every 5 picks.
As a Freo supporter I’d be disappointed if we took Amiss with our 1st pick with Andrew + Erasmus still
on the board.
Everyone seems to be a fan of Draper but I can’t see the attraction.

I can’t fault your work. Well done.

 

[Bastyy]

This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan

I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus

Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler

I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn

I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown

Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick

Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr

It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis

I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin

It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner

There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson

There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg

Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean

North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.

Love to see another person on board the Harbour train, reckon he's really underrated

I reckon Freo end up taking 5 come draft night, but I could be wrong

 

[freo99]

Love to see another person on board the Harbour train, reckon he's really underrated

I reckon Freo end up taking 5 come draft night, but I could be wrong

Agree on 5

 

[PMBangers]

You're the best MA

 

[BrutThough]

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler

I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn

I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Could you see any club wanting to trade up to get Hobbs if he was there still at St Kilda's pick? I'd agree he isnt the best for for what we need. A lot of the players projected to go from 13-20 seem to be better fits for what we're lacking.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I think this is an excellent phantom. I do like your reasoning and the way you‘ve commented every 5 picks.
As a Freo supporter I’d be disappointed if we took Amiss with our 1st pick with Andrew + Erasmus still
on the board.
Everyone seems to be a fan of Draper but I can’t see the attraction.

I can’t fault your work. Well done.

Should the draft fall this way I wouldn't be surprised to see Freo go with Andrew at 8 or take Erasmus first and guarantee a shot at one or both of Andrew + Amiss at 10. I do think that 8 is the absolute peak of Amiss' range and it would feel like a bit of a needs based reach. If Fremantle and Richmond passed on Amiss I think he could potentially slide to the mid to late teens.

Love to see another person on board the Harbour train, reckon he's really underrated

I reckon Freo end up taking 5 come draft night, but I could be wrong

I think there's enough there with Harbour that he could play a role at AFL level, even if it doesn't translate to a long career.

I'll be honest, I was lazy and didn't count list spot vacancies. I just based the number of selections off this article so you'd have a far better idea than I would! I'll keep that in mind for my final phantom (if I can muster up the courage) and add a fifth selection for the Dockers.

How many picks will your club use in the 2021 NAB AFL Draft?

Five Victorian clubs are headed for the biggest investment in this year's NAB AFL Draft, reports Callum Twomey

www.afl.com.au

 

[ModernArtillery]

Could you see any club wanting to trade up to get Hobbs if he was there still at St Kilda's pick? I'd agree he isnt the best for for what we need. A lot of the players projected to go from 13-20 seem to be better fits for what we're lacking.

I strongly considered Richmond as a landing spot for Hobbs at pick 9 so I think they'd have interest in moving up to 11 from pick 17 to take him. I think the sticking point for any deal though is a future pick as any later 2021 selections would likely be eaten up in a matched bid for Owens/Windhager and may not return the value you'd want. So for example if the deal was with Richmond I think it would have to be 17 + a 2022 second or third.

Equally, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints just go down another path and take any of Goater, Wanganeen-Milera or Johnson.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

No small forward or kpd, but two medium utilities. Hmmm...


Versatile mediums are probably the last list need atm by a long margin.

 

[Blackhawk42]

This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan

I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus

Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler

I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn

I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown

Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick

Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr

It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis

I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin

It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner

There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson

There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg

Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean

North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.

I'm all in on Ward and Clarke!

Not sure i'd have us taking Howes that high. We need to pick 2 mids MINIMUM with those inside 30 selections. I think McDonald or Roberts would be the ones if the draft plays out like yours has.

 

[ModernArtillery]

No small forward or kpd, but two medium utilities. Hmmm...


Versatile mediums are probably the last list need atm by a long margin.

To get the KPD you're looking for I think you'd have to take Rhett Bazzo instead of Chesser which is not unreasonable. Otherwise you're probably settling for a mature-age option like Charlie Dean over Bergman. Dean might suit a need but I really like Bergman, need or not. Corey Preston probably plays his best footy from the back half and through the midfield but he's a capable small forward. Isaiah Dudley also gets to North in this draft and he's as small forward as they come.

I'm all in on Ward and Clarke!

Not sure i'd have us taking Howes that high. We need to pick 2 mids MINIMUM with those inside 30 selections. I think McDonald or Roberts would be the ones if the draft plays out like yours has.

I'd agree that's nearing the top end of Howes' range. I feel McDonald and Roberts will definitely be there at both those early second round selections so it's every chance. I'd love McDonald in that range. Throw in Ward and Clarke and I think it's a very nice haul!

 

[Gosaints12]

I strongly considered Richmond as a landing spot for Hobbs at pick 9 so I think they'd have interest in moving up to 11 from pick 17 to take him. I think the sticking point for any deal though is a future pick as any later 2021 selections would likely be eaten up in a matched bid for Owens/Windhager and may not return the value you'd want. So for example if the deal was with Richmond I think it would have to be 17 + a 2022 second or third.

Equally, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints just go down another path and take any of Goater, Wanganeen-Milera or Johnson.

Another Second Round next year certainly helps. I might be going early but Draper at 17 might not be a bad way to go if it eventuates that way.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[theGav56]

Really interesting read, and terrific picks for us . I like the dilemma you've given Fremantle by having Andrew, Erasmus and Amiss available (as well as Hobbs and JVR), especially with Richmond having that in between pick, and GWS at 15 likely keen on Andrew.

Do you see this creating any potential in terms of live trading?

GWS - 8 for 15 and _?

Richmond - 8/10 and 21 for 9 and 17?

 

[Swiggy]

I think this is an excellent phantom. I do like your reasoning and the way you‘ve commented every 5 picks.
As a Freo supporter I’d be disappointed if we took Amiss with our 1st pick with Andrew + Erasmus still
on the board.
Everyone seems to be a fan of Draper but I can’t see the attraction.

I can’t fault your work. Well done.

Draper is a gun mate. If he didn’t play in same SANFL team as JHF I think there would be a lot more talk. If he was on the board at 21 Freo wouldn’t be able to call him out quick enough

 

[theGav56]

Draper is a gun mate. If he didn’t play in same SANFL team as JHF I think there would be a lot more talk. If he was on the board at 21 Freo wouldn’t be able to call him out quick enough

We could really use a third tall forward who can go mid. Very happy with him.