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Draft Watcher ModernArtillery 2021 Draft Thread

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We have a replacement for Rich in Sharp though who’s a running defender with a great kick
Sharp is a wingman who isn't going to be nearly the kick Rich is. Our closest to a replacement is probably one of Coleman or Prior at this stage.
 
We have a replacement for Rich in Sharp though who’s a running defender with a great kick
Sharp wasn’t a running defender with a great kick. At least not the one we drafted. That’s a much better description of the GC Sharp.

Sharp played primarily wing, and the two concerns with him, at the beginning of his draft year, was he was very light bodied and he wasn’t a great (or even good) kick.

Let’s see what he looks like next year, before we pencil him in as anybodies replacement.
 
It is a lot of similar types and you're right, Brisbane will bring in more of the same next year. Zorko's likely retirement in the next year or two may make that slightly less of an issue but in hindsight it's probably a selection I'll change in my final phantom. Despite not being overly tall, Dev Robertson and Zac Bailey are pretty strong bodies and I'd expect Dev at least to become a pure midfielder in the coming years, so I'm probably not as concerned with the size of those rotating through.
Forget positional need or depth, and go best player available at our first two picks.

From the players still on your board at our first pick, I rate Sinn as best still available, and he’s the one player I’d be determined to not miss out on, and probably 99% of Lions posters who follow the draft would agree with me there.

After Sinn, I personally rate Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor as the three next best in that order, and would be happy with any of them as our second pick.

The smokie would be Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens at our second pick.

I personally don’t rate JVR that high. I believe he’s a defender at afl level, and believe Bazzo actually projects as a better long term prospect.

Though JVR might potentially be viewed as a long term successor to Darcy Gardiner on our list, primarily due to Gardiner’s persistent injuries.

We’re definitely short of KPD’s on our list, as we only currently have 4 recognisable tall defenders.
 

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SANFL R1 shouldn’t that read rds 17 + 18 + average 11 disp. 0.5 goals

would rather make a bid for Owens, or pick up Hough, Bazzo, Howes or Sheldrick.

They are all opinions aren’t they
No if Draper gets to pick 21. I reckon he’d play AFL within the first 5 rounds.
If your only judging him on the state game you need to watch more of him. The kid is a gun
 
Forget positional need or depth, and go best player available at our first two picks.

From the players still on your board at our first pick, I rate Sinn as best still available, and he’s the one player I’d be determined to not miss out on, and probably 99% of Lions posters who follow the draft would agree with me there.

After Sinn, I personally rate Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor as the three next best in that order, and would be happy with any of them as our second pick.

The smokie would be Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens at our second pick.

I personally don’t rate JVR that high. I believe he’s a defender at afl level, and believe Bazzo actually projects as a better long term prospect.

Though JVR might potentially be viewed as a long term successor to Darcy Gardiner on our list, primarily due to Gardiner’s persistent injuries.

We’re definitely short of KPD’s on our list, as we only currently have 4 recognisable tall defenders.
If Gibcus was still on the board at 9 (11) with the Saints pick, would you trade up to get him? Its a scenario I have thought about as I believe Gibcus going in the Top 10 is critical to Saints getting a midfield prospect at their pick.
 
Might be a moot point, as he may not get there, but I can see him sliding. Victorian NAB league KPPs have a hit and miss record stepping up to AFL. On one hand I wouldn't mind drafting him on talent alone at 11, but on the other hand he doesn't really fit a need for us moving forward.
 
Might be a moot point, as he may not get there, but I can see him sliding. Victorian NAB league KPPs have a hit and miss record stepping up to AFL. On one hand I wouldn't mind drafting him on talent alone at 11, but on the other hand he doesn't really fit a need for us moving forward.
Those drafted in the 1st round seem to be mostly hits by a fair margin...

2020 - Early days but Ugle-Hagan, Nick Cox and Zach Reid certainly showed enough to suggest they're going to be decent.
2019 - Fischer McAsey a bit disappointing to date, Sam De Koning looks to have the goods.
2018 - Max King, Ben King both look to be exceptional talents.
2017 - Jarrod Brander, disappointing but all is not lost there just yet.
2016 - Todd Marshall, going OK
2015 - Jacob Weitering absolute A grader, Josh Schache a slow burn but more generally disappointing, Sam Weideman just OK, Harry McKay absolute gun, Charlie Curnow a real talent when he gets on the park, Ben McKay going alright.
2014 - Patrick McCartin a bust, Caleb Marchbank another cruelled by injuries but decent when he gets on the field, Jake Lever an A grader.
2013 - Tom Boyd delivered the Doggies a Premiership.
2012 - Lachie Plowman decent player, Joe Daniher an A grader, Kristian Jacksch a bust, Aiden Corr a very decent player.
2011 - Nick Haynes an A grader, Adam Tomlinson a very decent player, Henry Schade a bust, Todd Elton a bust.
 
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Those drafted in the 1st round seem to be mostly hits by a fair margin...

2020 - Early days but Ugle-Hagan, Nick Cox and Zach Reid certainly showed enough to suggest they're going to be decent.
2019 - Fischer McAsey a bit disappointing to date, Sam De Koning looks to have the goods.
2018 - Max King, Ben King both look to be exceptional talents.
2017 - Jarrod Brander, disappointing but all is not lost there just yet.
2016 - Todd Marshall, going OK
2015 - Jacob Weitering absolute A grader, Josh Schache a slow burn but more generally disappointing, Sam Weideman just OK, Harry McKay absolute gun, Charlie Curnow a real talent when he gets on the park, Ben McKay going alright.
2014 - Patrick McCartin a bust, Caleb Marchbank another cruelled by injuries but decent when he gets on the field, Jake Lever an A grader.
2013 - Tom Boyd delivered the Doggies a Premiership.
2012 - Lachie Plowman decent player, Jonno O'Rourke a bust, Joe Daniher an A grader, Kristian Jacksch a bust, Aiden Corr a very decent player.
2011 - Nick Haynes an A grader, Adam Tomlinson a very decent player, Tom Sheridan average player, Henry Schade a bust, Todd Elton a bust.
That's a reasonable and balanced assessment.
However, you can remove Jono O'Rourke & Tommy Sheridan, who weren't KPP.
 
Those drafted in the 1st round seem to be mostly hits by a fair margin...

2020 - Early days but Ugle-Hagan, Nick Cox and Zach Reid certainly showed enough to suggest they're going to be decent.
2019 - Fischer McAsey a bit disappointing to date, Sam De Koning looks to have the goods.
2018 - Max King, Ben King both look to be exceptional talents.
2017 - Jarrod Brander, disappointing but all is not lost there just yet.
2016 - Todd Marshall, going OK
2015 - Jacob Weitering absolute A grader, Josh Schache a slow burn but more generally disappointing, Sam Weideman just OK, Harry McKay absolute gun, Charlie Curnow a real talent when he gets on the park, Ben McKay going alright.
2014 - Patrick McCartin a bust, Caleb Marchbank another cruelled by injuries but decent when he gets on the field, Jake Lever an A grader.
2013 - Tom Boyd delivered the Doggies a Premiership.
2012 - Lachie Plowman decent player, Joe Daniher an A grader, Kristian Jacksch a bust, Aiden Corr a very decent player.
2011 - Nick Haynes an A grader, Adam Tomlinson a very decent player, Henry Schade a bust, Todd Elton a bust.
You forgot Hipwood in 2k15
 
Forget positional need or depth, and go best player available at our first two picks.

From the players still on your board at our first pick, I rate Sinn as best still available, and he’s the one player I’d be determined to not miss out on, and probably 99% of Lions posters who follow the draft would agree with me there.

After Sinn, I personally rate Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor as the three next best in that order, and would be happy with any of them as our second pick.

The smokie would be Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens at our second pick.

I personally don’t rate JVR that high. I believe he’s a defender at afl level, and believe Bazzo actually projects as a better long term prospect.

Though JVR might potentially be viewed as a long term successor to Darcy Gardiner on our list, primarily due to Gardiner’s persistent injuries.

We’re definitely short of KPD’s on our list, as we only currently have 4 recognisable tall defenders.
I think we probably have similar views on how we would approach this position of the draft if we were the Lions recruiting team. I'm one who wouldn't feel overly comfortable selecting JVR in this range too, with a number of others expected to be available that I prefer. The lack of key position depth probably raises his draft ceiling and so he probably does end up a late first/early second rounder.

I'd expect all those guys (Sinn, Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor) to be available in that range and although we favour them slightly differently, I think any combination of them is a pretty solid haul. I still think the points you made previously are legitimate though and may influence the way the Brisbane recruiting team approaches this draft.

I've thought this for a while but, ModernArtillery, every time I see your name, I keep thinking of Infected Mushroom - Artillery.
Haha to be fair, the alias is music inspired! 2003 Living End album, Modern Artillery.

Might be a moot point, as he may not get there, but I can see him sliding. Victorian NAB league KPPs have a hit and miss record stepping up to AFL. On one hand I wouldn't mind drafting him on talent alone at 11, but on the other hand he doesn't really fit a need for us moving forward.
Interestingly, I would've viewed a KPD as a need for the Saints and thought Gibcus might be a good fit. If he did slide, I think it would've been an interesting decision for the Saints because I suspect adding to their midfield will be a priority too.
 

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I think we probably have similar views on how we would approach this position of the draft if we were the Lions recruiting team. I'm one who wouldn't feel overly comfortable selecting JVR in this range too, with a number of others expected to be available that I prefer. The lack of key position depth probably raises his draft ceiling and so he probably does end up a late first/early second rounder.

I'd expect all those guys (Sinn, Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor) to be available in that range and although we favour them slightly differently, I think any combination of them is a pretty solid haul. I still think the points you made previously are legitimate though and may influence the way the Brisbane recruiting team approaches this draft.


Haha to be fair, the alias is music inspired! 2003 Living End album, Modern Artillery.


Interestingly, I would've viewed a KPD as a need for the Saints and thought Gibcus might be a good fit. If he did slide, I think it would've been an interesting decision for the Saints because I suspect adding to their midfield will be a priority too.
Classy midfielders is one of our biggest needs right now. KPD is another but I think it’s easier to get a serviceable one through other means while the top flight mids are mostly available through the draft or at a premium in the trade. Gibsus is also more of an interceptor right? We’ve got Highmore Coffield who play like that as well as Howard who we’d love to free up to be more of an interceptor too.
 
Classy midfielders is one of our biggest needs right now. KPD is another but I think it’s easier to get a serviceable one through other means while the top flight mids are mostly available through the draft or at a premium in the trade. Gibsus is also more of an interceptor right? We’ve got Highmore Coffield who play like that as well as Howard who we’d love to free up to be more of an interceptor too.
I think you're right, it's probably easier to get a serviceable KPD by other means, rather than a top end, classy midfielder. They're typically the type of player we like to see our clubs select early in the draft too. Gibcus operates at a pretty high level both as an interceptor and as a lock down defender. I see the ceiling of Gibcus as higher than those guys but obviously the development has to come to get him there. It seems we agree that both are needs for the Saints so it's really just weighing up the midfielders that are still on the board vs Gibcus if he is still available.
 
This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan


I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus


Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler


I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn


I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown


Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick


Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr


It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis


I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin


It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner


There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson


There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg


Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean


North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.

Good draft. From a geelong perspective i would love taylor to get to 22 (i think we take him or knevitt if they are there) but if hes gone brown is a really solid pick and i can see the fit for us. Some geelong fans would hate us going a slow inside mid but i actually really rate roberts and id do it. Bazzo is great value although given henderson has retired and our history of taking mature age defenders i think its more likely we take dean in this range than an 18yo. I really like both fejo and conwat but i think fejo goes later than you have him due to the depth of smalls in this pool and conway goes earlier for same reason (no ruck depth in this pool). Im not sure the club will take another young ruck after drafting neale last year but i hope we do. Id consider warner for one of our last 2 picks he represents great value. Youve gone early on morrison but im also a fan albeit i think he goes as a rookie.
 
Roberts seems a very similar type to Charlie Constable in his draft year

Nah constable ran a 7.58 for 2km at draft camp roberts is far better in this area.
 

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Good draft. From a geelong perspective i would love taylor to get to 22 (i think we take him or knevitt if they are there) but if hes gone brown is a really solid pick and i can see the fit for us. Some geelong fans would hate us going a slow inside mid but i actually really rate roberts and id do it. Bazzo is great value although given henderson has retired and our history of taking mature age defenders i think its more likely we take dean in this range than an 18yo. I really like both fejo and conwat but i think fejo goes later than you have him due to the depth of smalls in this pool and conway goes earlier for same reason (no ruck depth in this pool). Im not sure the club will take another young ruck after drafting neale last year but i hope we do. Id consider warner for one of our last 2 picks he represents great value. Youve gone early on morrison but im also a fan albeit i think he goes as a rookie.
I'd agree that Geelong is a likely destination for Dean but I also think Bazzo is good value in that range. There's a chance Bazzo is off the board at that point which would strengthen Dean's case in that range to Geelong even further. I agree, I think Morrison most likely fits in the rookie draft but was hoping to get a young, intercepting key position defender to Brisbane and I felt he was the best of the lot. I view the range for the likes of Roberts, Conway and Fejo pretty wide. I could see all of them featuring earlier than where they landed in this phantom, but equally could see them fall later. It's pretty tough to predict through the middle of that second round.
 
Shay Linke Draft Profile
The last of my draft profiles is Shay Linke. Linke broke through for Central this season and earned himself a League debut in a win against West Adelaide. He was surprisingly (at least to me) left out of South Australia's State U19 side in the first game against WA but eventually got his opportunity at that level. His 2km time trial at the SA Draft Combine was pretty impressive, running the fastest time for the day, finishing with a 6:22.

"At 190cm, Linke’s size is a unique, complementary piece to his running ability and although by appearance his frame is slight, he possesses enough strength to lay physical tackles on the opposition and compete against bigger bodies. These physical tools also make him competitive in the air where he’s a capable contested mark and strong above his head. Occasionally, when stationed in the forward half at senior level, Linke has been able to hold his own in the air against seasoned and more physically developed defenders, showing an ability to mark or hang in the contest and bring the ball to ground."

 
The last of my draft profiles is Shay Linke. Linke broke through for Central this season and earned himself a League debut in a win against West Adelaide. He was surprisingly (at least to me) left out of South Australia's State U19 side in the first game against WA but eventually got his opportunity at that level. His 2km time trial at the SA Draft Combine was pretty impressive, running the fastest time for the day, finishing with a 6:22.

"At 190cm, Linke’s size is a unique, complementary piece to his running ability and although by appearance his frame is slight, he possesses enough strength to lay physical tackles on the opposition and compete against bigger bodies. These physical tools also make him competitive in the air where he’s a capable contested mark and strong above his head. Occasionally, when stationed in the forward half at senior level, Linke has been able to hold his own in the air against seasoned and more physically developed defenders, showing an ability to mark or hang in the contest and bring the ball to ground."

I have ????'s on Linke's kicking more generally especially under pressure personally?

You think it's OK?
 
I have ????'s on Linke's kicking more generally especially under pressure personally?

You think it's OK?

"When Linke pushes back off his mark and lowers his eyes he’s a typically safe user by foot and allows his team to maintain possession of the football."

^
That probably summarises where I think Linke's kicking is a pass mark.

I have the same question marks over his kicking under pressure and overall impact by foot which I've represented in his improvements. I briefly alluded to his struggles under pressure here:
"His lack of explosiveness limits his impact at stoppage as it makes it difficult for him to immediately create separation from opponents, meaning a lot of his clearances are skewed by opposition pressure."

Perhaps I could've been more specific and highlighted kicking under pressure as an improvement. That's good feedback.
 

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