Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2023 Draft Thread

[ModernArtillery]

Someone could rookie SA lad Liam Fawcett, I think there's something there worth working on for a year or two to see what he's got..

Yep - he's definitely in that group. There's a few options at the back end.

 

[blueiris]

I feel like I can properly answer this now.

I like Phoenix Gothard as a someone who could add more speed to that forward group. He's got a bit to work on defensively, but as he adds some size/strength he could offer a nice mix of speed and forward pressure.

Looking at the list composition I'd say you might have interest in a key forward, though given where you're picking I'd say the value is limited in that range. Archer Reid went the pick before in the BF phantom draft, but he could be an option worth considering. I think he might be available. I don't love Logan Morris or Luke Lloyd but they might come into consideration. Of course there's the option to chase a KPF late and look at someone like Charlie McCormack (who I doubt the Giants would match a bid on) or Riley Weatherill who I quite like.

I'd be hopeful of the Lions to target a ruckman with O and Ford probably the only rucks of note on our list in Edwards or Green if available but yeah a small forward would definitely be next on my list of targets

 

[porterrob4747]

I'd be hopeful of the Lions to target a ruckman with O and Ford probably the only rucks of note on our list in Edwards or Green if available but yeah a small forward would definitely be next on my list of targets

Think they will

 

[ModernArtillery]

I'd be hopeful of the Lions to target a ruckman with O and Ford probably the only rucks of note on our list in Edwards or Green if available but yeah a small forward would definitely be next on my list of targets

Think they will

I thought so initially too, especially with Fullarton moving on. I just wonder with Henry Smith and Kalin Lane on the list, is there room to add another young developing ruck? Especially with Joe capable of carrying the second ruck duties. I wonder if they might look for a more mature option to top up at some point, rather than bringing in another 18 year old?

 

[Wild Bill]

Yuk. Yuk and Yuk!

No way we don't take McKercher at 2 or 3. I'll give up if that's the case.

Agree. If we take 2 & 3 to the draft McKercher is a lock.

 

[LittleDemon]

Agree. If we take 2 & 3 to the draft McKercher is a lock.

I disagree and agree with ModernArtillery. Yes McKercher is good, but in no way a lock in top 3 for North. They need key position players, and strong contenders at each end of the ground, thus they have more to gain by letting him slip through and improve their overall hand in the back and forward lines.

 

[Wild Bill]

I disagree and agree with ModernArtillery. Yes McKercher is good, but in no way a lock in top 3 for North. They need key position players, and strong contenders at each end of the ground, thus they have more to gain by letting him slip through and improve their overall hand in the back and forward lines.

McKercher adds speed and is a great mid. We have 3 later 1st rounders for talls. McKercher and Duursma will be the 2 IMO.

 

[LittleDemon]

McKercher adds speed and is a great mid. We have 3 later 1st rounders for talls. McKercher and Duursma will be the 2 IMO.

But who would North be happy with at 15, 17, 18 for KPP that is gettable, which is where they are lacking most in their list? Surely you can't tell me you would prefer McKercher and Murphy, say compared to Curtin and Leake or De Mattia?

 

[Wild Bill]

But who would North be happy with at 15, 17, 18 for KPP that is gettable, which is where they are lacking most in their list? Surely you can't tell me you would prefer McKercher and Murphy, say compared to Curtin and Leake or De Mattia?

McKercher & Duursma.

Murphy and Reid - CHB, CHF will be around our picks.

Goad, Green or Edwards if we want a young ruck.

 

[LittleDemon]

Interesting, they are viable choices I guess, even though its elevating them a bit above their projected picks. Edwards might be a flight risk and is quite light for his size same as Murphy, and something is not quite right about Goad for me. He does have room to improve though.

I think if I was North I would still want Curtin over Murphy, who is potential to not be there at 15. So my picks would be Duursma, Curtin, Reid, Green/Goad, and a best utility in that 15-18 bracket.

 

[LittleDemon]

I haven't seen much of him play except in champs game and didn't pay much attention to him when i did. His highlight reels are quite short, so I'm purely going on his draft profile and gut feeling. He appears greener than Will Green, so I'd pick him first as someone more capable of impacting the game other than ruck hit outs.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Pick 43
Melbourne
Clay Hall
Peel Thunder / Western Australia

I think Hall makes sense as a midfield option for the Dees at this point of the draft. I think he has a pretty high floor and will ultimately out-perform his draft position. He's a nice size, is a good runner and wins a nice balance of contested and uncontested footy. He's capable of applying himself defensively and can finish tackles, so I think there's enough to work with. I think it's fair to say his kicking is a little suspect, but I don't think it's broken. I'm projecting is use gets to a satisfactory level without ever being a weapon for him.

PMBangers

Just to round out the BF phantom draft, a short note on Clay Hall.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Final rankings are in before the draft and I've split them into tiers to give some visibility of where I view the gaps and depth.

Tier 1
1. Harley Reid

Tier 2
2. Jed Walter

Tier 3
I see very little separating these guys and could be convinced by many different variations of the order. Ultimately, my view of each players ceiling has driven the final order, although I feel we're splitting hairs with this group.

3. Zane Duursma
4. Daniel Curtin
5. Nate Caddy
6. Connor O'Sullivan
7. Ethan Read
8. Colby McKercher
9. Ryley Sanders
10. Nick Watson

Tier 4
If I had the choice between one player from Tier 3 and two players from Tier 4, I'd undoubtedly take the one player from Tier 3. That should give some indication of how I view the gap between these tiers.

11. James Leake
12. Caleb Windsor
13. Darcy Wilson
14. Jake Rogers
15. Jordan Croft
16. Will McCabe
17. Koltyn Tholstrup

Tier 5
I think the gap between Tier 4 and 5 is minimal. I view the ceiling of the Tier 4 guys as higher than those in Tier 5.

18. Clay Hall
19. Charlie Edwards
20. Harry Demattia
21. Riley Hardeman
22. Archer Reid

*I worry a bit about the floor of some of my Tier 4 and 5 players. Not sure if that's consistent with how I've felt about players in this range across previous years. It feels like there's some glaringly obvious floors in alot of these prospects that is worrisome.

Tier 6
I quite like this group and feel each of these guys are clearly talented enough to have an AFL career.

23. Jack Delean
24. Cooper Simpson
25. Lachie Charleson
26. Will Graham
27. Ashton Moir
28. Will Green
29. Taylor Goad
30. Archie Roberts

Tier 7
These guys have some appealing attributes, but possess flaws that I feel ultimately limits their ceiling.

31. Billy Wilson
32. Phoenix Gothard
33. Lance Collard
34. Arie Schoenmaker
35. Angus Hastie
36. Zane Zakostelsky
37. Koen Sanchez
38. Joel Freijah
39. George Stevens

Tier 8
Some question marks over whether the footballing talent is there, but some appealing (mostly physical) attributes that I think make them worth a look late if available.

40. Kane McAuliffe
41. Oscar Ryan
42. Kobe Shipp
43. Tarkyn O'Leary
44. Nathan Philactides
45. Ollie Murphy
46. Charlie Harrop
47. Mitch Edwards
48. Reece Torrent
49. Riley Weatherill
50. Lachlan Smith

 

[Warhorse]

Final rankings are in before the draft and I've split them into tiers to give some visibility of where I view the gaps and depth.

Tier 1
1. Harley Reid

Tier 2
2. Jed Walter

Tier 3
I see very little separating these guys and could be convinced by many different variations of the order. Ultimately, my view of each players ceiling has driven the final order, although I feel we're splitting hairs with this group.

3. Zane Duursma
4. Daniel Curtin
5. Nate Caddy
6. Connor O'Sullivan
7. Ethan Read
8. Colby McKercher
9. Ryley Sanders
10. Nick Watson

Tier 4
If I had the choice between one player from Tier 3 and two players from Tier 4, I'd undoubtedly take the one player from Tier 3. That should give some indication of how I view the gap between these tiers.

11. James Leake
12. Caleb Windsor
13. Darcy Wilson
14. Jake Rogers
15. Jordan Croft
16. Will McCabe
17. Koltyn Tholstrup

Tier 5
I think the gap between Tier 4 and 5 is minimal. I view the ceiling of the Tier 4 guys as higher than those in Tier 5.

18. Clay Hall
19. Charlie Edwards
20. Harry Demattia
21. Riley Hardeman
22. Archer Reid

*I worry a bit about the floor of some of my Tier 4 and 5 players. Not sure if that's consistent with how I've felt about players in this range across previous years. It feels like there's some glaringly obvious floors in alot of these prospects that is worrisome.

Tier 6
I quite like this group and feel each of these guys are clearly talented enough to have an AFL career.

23. Jack Delean
24. Cooper Simpson
25. Lachie Charleson
26. Will Graham
27. Ashton Moir
28. Will Green
29. Taylor Goad
30. Archie Roberts

Tier 7
These guys have some appealing attributes, but possess flaws that I feel ultimately limits their ceiling.

31. Billy Wilson
32. Phoenix Gothard
33. Lance Collard
34. Arie Schoenmaker
35. Angus Hastie
36. Zane Zakostelsky
37. Koen Sanchez
38. Joel Freijah
39. George Stevens

Tier 8
Some question marks over whether the footballing talent is there, but some appealing (mostly physical) attributes that I think make them worth a look late if available.

40. Kane McAuliffe
41. Oscar Ryan
42. Kobe Shipp
43. Tarkyn O'Leary
44. Nathan Philactides
45. Ollie Murphy
46. Charlie Harrop
47. Mitch Edwards
48. Reece Torrent
49. Riley Weatherill
50. Lachlan Smith

I think your first 4 tiers is spot on

 

[ummmbont]

I think your first 4 tiers is spot on

Lual?

 

[ModernArtillery]

Lual?

Not sure if this question was for me - but he's in the extended Tier 8 for me.

 

[Couch Coach]

Final rankings are in before the draft and I've split them into tiers to give some visibility of where I view the gaps and depth.

Tier 1
1. Harley Reid

Tier 2
2. Jed Walter

Tier 3
I see very little separating these guys and could be convinced by many different variations of the order. Ultimately, my view of each players ceiling has driven the final order, although I feel we're splitting hairs with this group.

3. Zane Duursma
4. Daniel Curtin
5. Nate Caddy
6. Connor O'Sullivan
7. Ethan Read
8. Colby McKercher
9. Ryley Sanders
10. Nick Watson

Tier 4
If I had the choice between one player from Tier 3 and two players from Tier 4, I'd undoubtedly take the one player from Tier 3. That should give some indication of how I view the gap between these tiers.

11. James Leake
12. Caleb Windsor
13. Darcy Wilson
14. Jake Rogers
15. Jordan Croft
16. Will McCabe
17. Koltyn Tholstrup

Tier 5
I think the gap between Tier 4 and 5 is minimal. I view the ceiling of the Tier 4 guys as higher than those in Tier 5.

18. Clay Hall
19. Charlie Edwards
20. Harry Demattia
21. Riley Hardeman
22. Archer Reid

*I worry a bit about the floor of some of my Tier 4 and 5 players. Not sure if that's consistent with how I've felt about players in this range across previous years. It feels like there's some glaringly obvious floors in alot of these prospects that is worrisome.

Tier 6
I quite like this group and feel each of these guys are clearly talented enough to have an AFL career.

23. Jack Delean
24. Cooper Simpson
25. Lachie Charleson
26. Will Graham
27. Ashton Moir
28. Will Green
29. Taylor Goad
30. Archie Roberts

Tier 7
These guys have some appealing attributes, but possess flaws that I feel ultimately limits their ceiling.

31. Billy Wilson
32. Phoenix Gothard
33. Lance Collard
34. Arie Schoenmaker
35. Angus Hastie
36. Zane Zakostelsky
37. Koen Sanchez
38. Joel Freijah
39. George Stevens

Tier 8
Some question marks over whether the footballing talent is there, but some appealing (mostly physical) attributes that I think make them worth a look late if available.

40. Kane McAuliffe
41. Oscar Ryan
42. Kobe Shipp
43. Tarkyn O'Leary
44. Nathan Philactides
45. Ollie Murphy
46. Charlie Harrop
47. Mitch Edwards
48. Reece Torrent
49. Riley Weatherill
50. Lachlan Smith

Ollie Murphy seems to have slipped in the last month or so (not just here but on a lot of other lists).
Was talked up as a late first rounder and now seems to be a late 2nd / early 3rd.

Is there any reason for this?

Wil Dawson noit in your top 50 (unless I missed him)?

 

[weltschmerz]

Ollie Murphy seems to have slipped in the last month or so (not just here but on a lot of other lists).
Was talked up as a late first rounder and now seems to be a late 2nd / early 3rd.

Is there any reason for this?

Pretty terrible combine.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Any last thoughts MA?

 

[ModernArtillery]

Ollie Murphy seems to have slipped in the last month or so (not just here but on a lot of other lists).
Was talked up as a late first rounder and now seems to be a late 2nd / early 3rd.

Is there any reason for this?

Wil Dawson noit in your top 50 (unless I missed him)?

I never quite got there on Murphy. I just don't think he quite has that attribute that convinces me he'll make it at the next level. As weltschmerz mentioned, from what I understand, the combine didn't do him any favours.

I don't dislike Dawson and he is another in that extended Tier 8 for me. I think the rumoured top end of his draft range is a fair indication of the overall quality of this draft. I probably view him as a late/rookie selection at best.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Any last thoughts MA?

I'll share a couple!

As a Crows fan I'm eagerly watching what happens with Curtin. I'll be thrilled if we walk away with either him or O'Sullivan with our first pick.

I like Leake and Windsor as prospects, but I think if they go ahead of Curtin, Caddy and O'Sullivan then that's a mistake.

I'm super curious to see what Sydney does which is not really any different to any other year. I wonder if they'll go left field and surprise us again. I'm predicting Phoenix Gothard, George Stevens, Zane Zakostelsky or a bid on Will Graham!

The rucks will be interesting. I'd be surprised if the Crows passed on Goad if he was available with their third pick, but disappointed if we picked him at our second. North seem a good chance to take a ruck with one of (what is currently) 17 and 18. Not that we'll know tonight but I don't think it's crazy to think Mitch Edwards might be available for the Dockers after pick 40. I'm keen to see how the rucks unfold.

If I could see one guy get to a club in this years draft it would be Tom Wheaton. I've watched his footy at South Adelaide for a few seasons now and always thought he had the attributes to get a look in. He didn't have the year I'd hoped he would and is probably a long shot now.

I'd also be interested to know everyone's (realistic) dream scenario for their clubs.

Mine for the Crows:
O'Sullivan (sliding to our first pick)
Darcy Wilson (sliding to our second pick)
Clay Hall (with our third pick)

 

[ModernArtillery]

I personally think Dawson is quite a bit better than that, 20 December birthday and plenty of upside to come, I wish Thilthorpe had his attack on the contest especially in the air.

It would seem that there's a few clubs that agree with you!

 

[chels]

ModernArtillery - do you have Windsor edging towards your Tier 3 rating, or is he firmly Tier 4?

 

[ModernArtillery]

ModernArtillery - do you have Windsor edging towards your Tier 3 rating, or is he firmly Tier 4?

I'd say he's firmly in Tier 4. The separator is my view on the likelihood that each of those players succeed at AFL level. I know statistically it's unlikely, but I look at those first 10 names and struggle to see how any of them don't have an impact at AFL level. With Windsor, I think the upside is tremendous. I know he hasn't shown a lot on the inside, but I think he could develop into the type of player that impacts the game in the same way that Hugh McCluggage does. That lack of inside exposure is a clear deficiency at this stage though and that presents a level of risk that I don't think exists for those in Tiers 1-3.

 

[ModernArtillery]

And just like that, another year done! A few final thoughts to put a bow on this season.

I really like Caleb Windsor and I think Phoenix Gothard and James Leake could absolutely be players at AFL level, but it really felt like there was a clear top 10 and I wonder if the Dees and Giants are a bit mad doing what they did. Only time will tell.

It feels so rare that the Crows land a top end talent that I really, really like, so I'm over the moon with Curtin. I do wonder a little bit if we could've ended up with O'Sullivan and Wilson had we held, but not disappointed at all with Curtin and Edwards.

I really liked what the Bombers, Dockers, Eagles and Dogs did. Gold Coast probably the obvious winners given their Academy haul.

A few of my favourite picks:

Harry Demattia at 25 to Collingwood (even though it broke my heart as a Crows fan)
Billy Wilson at 34 to Carlton
Clay Hall at 38 to the Eagles
Joel Freijah at 45 to Western Bulldogs
Lachie Charleson at 52 to Port
Jack Delean at 60 to Fremantle

There's always a few hard luck stories but Koen Sanchez is the stiffest of them all I reckon. I think there are ALOT of players that got to clubs that aren't as good, nor have as much potential to contribute at AFL, compared to Sanchez. That one was a bit of a surprise for me.

The Fox Footy draft show is a tough gig, but I found this year particularly tough to watch. The NBA haven't perfected it and the NFL isn't much better but I wonder if there's something that could be done to improve it. Unless its just me!

Looking forward to the 2024 crop. My plan is to get a bit of a head start and get a 2024 thread up before the end of the year.