Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2023 Draft Thread

Remove this Banner Ad

Pre-season notes Part 2
  • ***Part 1 of my pre-season notes is captured in the first post of this thread.

    Harry Francis
    I first saw Harry Francis play two years ago and he immediately became a favourite of mine. That day he played primarily through the ruck, resting forward. He showed a fair bit of natural athleticism and coordination and his ability to use the ball around the ground was above average for his size. I've since seen him play a bit more in defence and I think that might be the position that gives him the best opportunity to have a career at AFL level. I know most won't look favourably on this call, but I think some of his strengths are comparable to someone like Billy Frampton. He's got similar size, coordination, fluidity, natural athleticism and above average ball-use. Areas of growth include 1 on 1 competitiveness in the contest and overall physicality.

    Jack Callinan
    I'm a big fan of Jack Callinan and would have him in the top half of my draft board at this point of the season. There's no question marks on his footy for me. He's got the forward craft to consistently impact on the scoreboard and ability to apply pressure inside 50. He doesn't look out of place through the midfield and while he's probably not a permanent midfielder at AFL level, he's certainly got the talent to play a role as a pinch-hitter.

    Arie Schoenmaker
    Schoenmaker has nice speed for his size and is a really capable user by foot coming out of defence. Ideally he gets to a genuine KPD size as he currently measures in as a third tall at about 193cm. He's a capable interceptor and what makes him so damaging is his ability to intercept and then rebound. I see a genuine best 22 prospect and am keen to see further physical development and growth in his defensive game.

    Alex Holt
    I've been lucky enough to see a fair bit of Alex Holt at SANFL U18 level and have been very impressed with his competitiveness and leadership. His defensive work is exceptional and he's demonstrated a capacity to play on a variety of different types. His work rebounding from defensive 50 has come with mixed results. He has the right mindset and has shown a willingness to take the game on. This comes with mistakes but it never appears to impact his confidence and you'd expect it will be beneficial for his development long-term.

    Nathan Philactides
    Philactides is one of the more exciting prospects in this class. It's great to watch what he can do with the footy and how quickly he can turn defence into attack. He's got a great speed/power/burst combo and has a classy left foot. I do wonder whether there's a cap on his ceiling from a draft range perspective given his size/role but he's still one I expect to be discussed in the first half of the draft.

    Ryley Sanders
    Sanders is one I'm keen to track closely this year. I love his size, frame and work on the inside. He moves through traffic well but doesn't have that burst or speed that is really desirable. He's a competent distributor, especially by hand and willing tackler. With Sanders, I think the footy is good enough, but the question mark will be on his athletic attributes.

    Archie Roberts
    I'm not completely sold on Roberts as a prospect yet, but it wouldn't be the first time I've been late to the party. I'd like to see his kicking and decision-making improve coming out of defence, as I feel at times he settles for distance rather than hitting up shorter, more aggressive targets. I'll also acknowledge that is sometimes a product of the options that actually present themselves up the field, so it's perhaps not always his fault. He's got a bit of development to come physically, but he's got time to add the necessary size. I'd really like to see his 1 on 1 defensive work improve to complement his ability to read the flight of the ball. Like a few others, I think the positional-value limits the ceiling of his draft-range.
     
    June Rankings
  • I've been chasing my tail trying to catch up on all the footy since I've been back from overseas. It feels like I'm always going to be a week behind but I'm well overdue for an update. Of course, just as I start to feel settled on my top 10, Nate Caddy kicks 6 and Darcy Wilson has another 30.

    Top 10

    1. Harley Reid

    Nothing more needs to be said. Special prospect.

    2. Jed Walter

    Walter has power, strength and pretty good straight-line speed for a player his size. Perhaps there could be some concern around upside given his advanced physical development, but in his case, I'm happy to see the physical profile knowing what I'll get from him. From purely a football perspective, I don't have him as the most talented key position player in this draft, but I value key forwards over key defenders and I think Walter's production at AFL level will justify the higher ranking.

    3. Daniel Curtin
    I really love Curtin's patience and polish coming out of defence. I think all facets of his defensive game are satisfactory enough to translate to AFL footy, but it's his composure and ball-use rebounding from defensive 50 that I think sets him apart. I think he can play a similar role to Steven May in the way that he both defends and distributes the ball at a high level. I have him as the most talented key position player in the draft.

    4. Zane Duursma
    There's a few prospects in this draft who's form has been a bit up and down throughout the year thus far and Duursma has been a bit susceptible to that. I just love his talent though as a guy who projects as a highly athletic, speedy midfielder. I believe his contested footy will come and see genuine scope for him to be a quality stoppage player. Throw in his capacity to go forward and be a match-winner there and I think he represents great value at any selection after Harley Reid.

    *I'd take the order of this next group with a grain of salt. Not a lot between them and I'm anticipating it being a nightmare right up to draft night.

    5. Ryley Sanders
    I really didn't want to get sucked into Sanders, who I perceived as a bit slow and vanilla in his 16th and 17th years. He's just completely elevated his game to the point where he's undeniable as a top-end prospect. His stoppage work is elite, he accumulates, he's super clean below his knees and works through traffic with patience. I think his kicking has improved as he's become a competent and sometimes creative user by foot. He gets the nod over some of the other top-end prospects because I value his advanced contested game and inside work.

    6. Nate Caddy
    It's taken me a while to buy into Caddy as a prospect. I'm still a bit skeptical of the midfield scope but I think his upside as a forward is legitimate enough to justify him being this high. He appears to be filling out nicely and I think he's going to have the athleticism to work his opponent over at the next level. He's a legitimate aerial threat, yet also incredibly competent on the ground. I think his finishing and general ball use has room for improvement, but he's certainly got star potential.

    7. Ethan Read
    Read is an incredibly unique, special talent for his size. His ability to cover the ground at 200cm and use the football the way he does is extraordinary. With his athleticism and skill level, I think there's scope for him to feature as a KPF or KPD, though the ruck position might maximise his running ability.

    8. Nick Watson
    I'd just love to know where Watson would be drafted if he had Harley Reid's body.. He's such a talent and I think there are scenarios at AFL level where his size will actually be an advantage. He's going to be a very difficult match-up inside forward 50. His low centre of gravity is going to make him incredibly difficult to tackle and he's got the speed and evasiveness to run rings around defenders. Throw in his aerial ability and the fact he's a classy finisher and you're looking at a player who could become the best small forward in the league.

    9. Connor O'Sullivan
    I'm not normally one to get too excited about KPD's in the top 10, but O'Sullivan ticks a lot of boxes for me. He's a nice athlete and a really smooth mover who patiently works through traffic and frees his arms in tackles to release a handball to teammates. He can impact the aerial contest, either with a spoil or intercept mark and is a competent ball user and decision-maker coming out of defence. Another skill that sets him apart from other key position products is his cleanliness below his knees. At this stage, I'd be pretty comfortable using a top 10 selection on this kid.

    10. Colby McKercher
    Colby at 10 feels low, which probably speaks to how highly I rate this top 10. If I was to share a concern about him, it's probably around what his contested game looks like at AFL level. At times he struggles to break tackles and release effective handballs but that's probably overly critical. The numbers are great and his form is super strong, so this is probably disrespectful.
     
    July Rankings
  • No real update to the top 10. You could probably talk me into just about any order after Curtin through those first 10.

    1. Harley Reid
    2. Jed Walter
    3. Daniel Curtin
    4. Zane Duursma
    5. Ryley Sanders
    6. Nate Caddy
    7. Ethan Read
    8. Nick Watson
    9. Connor O'Sullivan
    10. Colby McKercher

    11. Darcy Wilson
    I have a few question marks over Wilson's inside game, but he may just be one of those super athletic, super skilled midfielders who can extract the footy without needing to physically impose himself on a contest. Connor Rozee is probably someone who does this similarly. Wilson has really nice size and speed and is hard to close down if you give him an inch. He's a talented enough user that he can really hurt you with his kicking and his scoreboard impact is well proven to this point. The lacking inside game lowers his floor, but the overall talent suggests his ceiling could be something pretty special.

    12. Clay Hall
    Hall is a bit of a no-fuss midfielder and I really valued his consistency across the Champs. He's a nice size at 188cm, seems to have reasonable game speed and can find the footy both on the inside and outside. I wonder a little about his kicking sometimes, but I'm not overly, overly concerned. He looks like a natural accumulator of the footy and his defensive work around the stoppage is pretty good. His running looks great (without seeing any data) and seems like he covers the ground really well, so I think he's got a pretty high floor in terms of what he could be at AFL level. I think he's got genuine scope to be a well-balanced second/third/fourth midfielder at AFL level.

    13. Jake Rogers
    Rogers is super dynamic and has strong midfield craft. He's got nice speed and surprising strength in the contest for his size. He's actually quite difficult to tackle given his low centre of gravity. I think he could improve his finishing in front of goal, which would be important given he'll likely spend a lot of time forward early in his career.

    14. Jordan Croft
    I really like Jordan Croft and think he represents great value in the teens. Croft has two attributes that I really value in KPF's and I think the combination of the two is quite rare. He's super competitive in the air. He really launches into the marking contest and has the athleticism to be able to get his hands to the footy at the highest point. Once the ball hits the deck though, you can't write him out of it. He's got nice speed and mobility for his size and that allows him to apply elite defensive pressure as a KPF. There's still a rawness to his game that makes the gap between the floor and ceiling a bit wider, but I think he's going to end up forming a nice combination with Jamarra down the track.

    15. Joel Freijah
    Freijah is a tougher one for me to place. On the one hand, I think he's super talented and I really value a lot of what he has to offer. He's a really nice size, has good speed and is a classy user and finisher in front of goal. On the other hand, he's not really an inside ball-winner and I don't think he has much scope as a centre-bounce/stoppage mid. I see him exclusively as a winger/flanker at the next level, but he's certainly got the talent to play that role at a really high level.

    16. Jack Delean
    I just think Jack Delean is an absolute gun. His aerial work is exceptional for a player his size and he's strong on the lead, but it's his finishing in front of goal that really stands out to me. His ability to convert goals with a high degree of difficulty is as good as anyone in this draft not named Nick Watson. Yes, he's a relatively low possession player, but I reckon he's got match-winner written all over him. If I needed a small forward, I wouldn't hesitate to use a pick in the second half of the first round on him.

    17. Koltyn Tholstrup
    Tholstrup's got power, a bit of flare and is a guy that can hit the scoreboard. I envision him being a high-impact player at AFL level, but wonder if he'll struggle a little bit with consistency in the same way that some of the current guys who have similar frames and play similar roles tend to struggle (Stringer, Zurhaar etc). I don't see a pure midfield role in his future and that probably limits his ceiling in terms of draft position for me. I'm keen to get the running and athletic data for him, because I think that will paint a bit of a picture for me in terms of how translatable his game is to AFL footy.

    *This is the part of the draft where I probably feel less comfortable with my order. It's probably safe to expect some change here over the coming months.

    18. Will McCabe
    I'm probably banking on McCabe's combination of athletic attributes and natural talent here. He's got really nice size and his skills are fine for a KPD prospect. He appears to be a bit laid back as a character and I think sometimes I want to see a bit more fire and competitiveness in the contest. He's still a pretty skinny kid, so perhaps that capacity to physically impact contests will come as he starts to add a bit of size.

    19. Archer Reid
    I still believe in what Archer Reid has to offer. He's a nice size and I think his frame will add enough weight/strength without taking away from his ability to move. I like his stuff overhead and on the lead. His set-shot kicking is a bit suspect, but I haven't minded some of his general field kicking for his size. His ruck craft is serviceable too. I think his overall skillset for the role he'll play at AFL level makes him a valuable prospect.

    20. Harry Demattia
    This is probably a harsh thing to say, but I don't think Demattia's style is overly attractive and it took me a while to really buy into him as a prospect. Admittedly, I'm still probably not entirely there, but it's hard to find too many faults in his game. He's a strong build with good top end speed. He's incredibly versatile, capable of playing midfield, defence and forward and his ball use is probably better than I've really give him credit. I just think with the combination of all those things, it's highly likely he finds a way to have a career at AFL level.

    When I've got some more time over the coming days I'll start to build this out to 30 and beyond, but to give a bit of an idea of who I have in that next group, here are a few names:

    Cooper Simpson
    Charlie Harrop
    Will Lorenz
    Ollie Murphy
    Nathan Philactides
    Lachie Charleson
    Koen Sanchez
    Oscar Ryan
    Harvey Johnston
    Ashton Moir
     

    Log in to remove this ad.

    August/Early September Rankings
  • I know it's September but I didn't get a chance to share my rankings from last month. The little player summaries take more time than I'd like, but they often help me validate their ranking before I post so I like including them. Unfortunately it takes a bit of motivation to pull them together! Couldn't quite get to 40, but will hopefully get there in the next edition.

    1. Harley Reid
    2. Jed Walter
    3. Zane Duursma
    4. Daniel Curtin
    5. Nate Caddy
    6. Ryley Sanders
    7. Connor O'Sullivan
    8. Ethan Read
    9. Nick Watson
    10. Colby McKercher
    11. Darcy Wilson
    12. Clay Hall
    13. Jake Rogers
    14. Jordan Croft
    15. Caleb Windsor
    16. Jack Delean
    17. Koltyn Tholstrup
    18. Will McCabe
    19. Archer Reid
    20. Charlie Edwards

    21. James Leake
    22. Lachie Charleson
    23. Riley Hardeman
    24. Harry Demattia
    25. Will Green
    26. Cooper Simpson
    27. Ollie Murphy
    28. Oscar Ryan
    29. Joel Freijah
    30. Will Graham
    31. Koen Sanchez
    32. Billy Wilson
    33. Charlie Harrop
    34. Ashton Moir
    35. Phoenix Gothard

    Caleb Windsor
    Windsor ticks a lot of boxes for me. He's got a solid athletic profile with his speed being a standout attribute. He's a nice user of the footy and a really capable finisher in front of goal. He's typically played on the wing as an outside midfielder, but I think he has the tools to develop into a more balanced midfielder, where I think his speed and class could see him become a really impactful stoppage player.

    Jack Delean
    I love Delean but I'm a little concerned about his testing. I'm hoping he shows some improvement in his speed and running capacity as I see both limiting his ceiling. Talent is unquestionable for me.

    Charlie Edwards
    Edwards is another big riser. He's got great size for a midfielder, he uses the ball really well and is a great finisher in front of goal. He appears at this stage to be outside leaning and I'd love to see him be more physical on the inside. That development would well and truly entrench him in the first round for me. Without any data to prove this, he feels a touch slow for an outside midfielder, but that could be disproved when the end of season testing results come in.

    James Leake
    Leake is a versatile type who has had some nice moments at both ends of the ground. He comes across as a real competitor and I even wonder whether his contest work might develop enough to see him move on the ball. His aerial work is pretty solid and he's a nice finisher in front of goal. Another who's speed and agility are a slight concern.

    Lachie Charleson
    Charleson is one of my favourites. He's likely a forward at AFL level, but over time could pinch-hit through the midfield to add some speed and x-factor around the ball. He's classy around goal and if his tackling and forward pressure can go up a level, there's no reason he couldn't have a career at the next level.

    Riley Hardeman
    I'm not overly keen on Hardeman, but at some point the size/speed combo as a medium-type is a bit too much to pass up. I think he's probably a halfback at AFL level. His aerial stuff is fine, but I do think he's probably a long, penetrating kick rather than a real classy user.

    Harry Demattia
    The eye-test just still hasn't quite sold me on Harry, but the combination of speed on the outside, toughness on the inside and positional versatility suggests he'll find a way to have an AFL career.

    Will Green
    I've found a bit to like about Will Green. I like his tap work, I like what he does a kick behind the play. He's capable aerially and he's pretty mobile around the ground. For a kid his size, his ball use is pretty safe too. Obviously has a fair bit of physical development left in him, but worth a look in the second round I reckon.

    Cooper Simpson
    I was a big Cooper Simpson fan going into the year, but he's not completely sold me since. He's super shifty and adds some nice speed around the contest. He's really capable in the forward half too and probably finds himself as a high half forward should he get a look in at the next level. I worry that sometimes he tries to do a little too much, but if it is a problem, that can potentially be coached out of him.

    Ollie Murphy
    A bit like Hardeman, I'm just not really a big fan of Murphy, although it's possibly a bit ridiculous to have him this low. I think I'd just like to be a little more sold if I was taking a KPD early, and I still have a little bit of a question mark over his contest work and general defensive game. One I'll probably do a deeper dive on before draft day.

    Oscar Ryan
    I really like Oscar as a medium across half back. I just think generally he's pretty capable at most things. Decent user, capable interceptor. He does enough defensively and can break the lines through halfback. I feel like he plays quicker than he tested, so I'm keen to see his data at the end of the season.

    Joel Freijah
    My biggest slider. He's just so outside and I probably wanted to see a little more. Harsh because he could be special.

    Will Graham
    When I go back and do more work on Graham I think he'll be a riser. Nice size as a midfielder, really good speed and has the physicality and contest work to go with it. Had he not played in such a stacked midfield at the Champs he may have got more exposure on the inside and sat a little higher as a result.

    Koen Sanchez
    Another small who is capable in the forward half, but equally makes things happen through the middle of the ground. I don't see an overly high ceiling but the kid just doesn't do a lot wrong.

    Billy Wilson
    I've liked Billy most of the year. His shift to the midfield, while impressive, probably doesn't change my view on him too much. I think he probably settles at halfback, should he get a look in at the next level. Good speed, competitive defensively. Kicking and decision-making maybe fractionally inconsistent, but the ability is there.

    Charlie Harrop
    Another favourite. Nice size and capable goal kicker in the forward half. Power and speed could make him a tough match-up as he develops a bit more. Moves and changes lanes well with ball in hand, so can be capable pushing up the ground and working back. He actually does a sneaky good job of getting out the back so is a real threat in transition.

    Ashton Moir
    Enough has been said on Moir's year. The forward half talent is there, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a midfielder.

    Phoenix Gothard
    Another shifty, small forward. Gothard has good goal sense and is a pretty neat user with ball in hand.
     
    Jack Delean Draft Profile
  • Jack Delean Draft Profile

    Delean is one of my favourite's from this year's crop. He's just got so much natural talent and does plenty of things that others can't on a football field. I'm a little bit worried that the lack of speed and endurance is going to cost him, but I just hope someone backs in the talent and gives him a crack.
     
    Post-trade week phantom draft
  • It's phantom draft season :hearteyes:

    I haven't fussed terribly over this but it's a first crack to get things underway.

    Round 1

    1. West Coast - Harley Reid
    2. Gold Coast - Jed Walter (matched bid)
    3. North Melbourne - Nick Watson
    4. North Melbourne - Daniel Curtin
    5. Hawthorn - Zane Duursma
    6. Western Bulldogs - Colby McKercher
    7. Melbourne - Nate Caddy
    8. Gold Coast - Ethan Read (matched bid)
    9. GWS - Ryley Sanders
    10. Geelong - Connor O'Sullivan
    11. Essendon - Darcy Wilson
    12. Adelaide - Caleb Windsor
    13. Western Bulldogs - Jordan Croft (matched bid)
    14. Melbourne - James Leake
    15. Gold Coast - Jake Rogers (matched bid)
    16. Sydney - Riley Hardeman
    17. St Kilda - Charlie Edwards
    18. Hawthorn - Will McCabe (matched bid)
    19. Adelaide - Koltyn Tholstrup
    20. North Melbourne - Zane Zakostelsky
    21. GWS - Lance Collard
    22. North Melbourne - Harry Demattia
    23. North Melbourne - Will Green
    24. Collingwood - Ollie Murphy
    25. Adelaide - Arie Schoenmaker
    26. St Kilda - Archie Roberts
    27. Carlton - Archer Reid
     
    Pre-draft rankings (with tiers)
  • Final rankings are in before the draft and I've split them into tiers to give some visibility of where I view the gaps and depth.

    Tier 1
    1. Harley Reid

    Tier 2
    2. Jed Walter

    Tier 3
    I see very little separating these guys and could be convinced by many different variations of the order. Ultimately, my view of each players ceiling has driven the final order, although I feel we're splitting hairs with this group.

    3. Zane Duursma
    4. Daniel Curtin
    5. Nate Caddy
    6. Connor O'Sullivan
    7. Ethan Read
    8. Colby McKercher
    9. Ryley Sanders
    10. Nick Watson

    Tier 4
    If I had the choice between one player from Tier 3 and two players from Tier 4, I'd undoubtedly take the one player from Tier 3. That should give some indication of how I view the gap between these tiers.

    11. James Leake
    12. Caleb Windsor
    13. Darcy Wilson
    14. Jake Rogers
    15. Jordan Croft
    16. Will McCabe
    17. Koltyn Tholstrup

    Tier 5
    I think the gap between Tier 4 and 5 is minimal. I view the ceiling of the Tier 4 guys as higher than those in Tier 5.

    18. Clay Hall
    19. Charlie Edwards
    20. Harry Demattia
    21. Riley Hardeman
    22. Archer Reid

    *I worry a bit about the floor of some of my Tier 4 and 5 players. Not sure if that's consistent with how I've felt about players in this range across previous years. It feels like there's some glaringly obvious floors in alot of these prospects that is worrisome.

    Tier 6
    I quite like this group and feel each of these guys are clearly talented enough to have an AFL career.

    23. Jack Delean
    24. Cooper Simpson
    25. Lachie Charleson
    26. Will Graham
    27. Ashton Moir
    28. Will Green
    29. Taylor Goad
    30. Archie Roberts

    Tier 7
    These guys have some appealing attributes, but possess flaws that I feel ultimately limits their ceiling.

    31. Billy Wilson
    32. Phoenix Gothard
    33. Lance Collard
    34. Arie Schoenmaker
    35. Angus Hastie
    36. Zane Zakostelsky
    37. Koen Sanchez
    38. Joel Freijah
    39. George Stevens

    Tier 8
    Some question marks over whether the footballing talent is there, but some appealing (mostly physical) attributes that I think make them worth a look late if available.

    40. Kane McAuliffe
    41. Oscar Ryan
    42. Kobe Shipp
    43. Tarkyn O'Leary
    44. Nathan Philactides
    45. Ollie Murphy
    46. Charlie Harrop
    47. Mitch Edwards
    48. Reece Torrent
    49. Riley Weatherill
    50. Lachlan Smith
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

    Post-draft thoughts
  • And just like that, another year done! A few final thoughts to put a bow on this season.

    I really like Caleb Windsor and I think Phoenix Gothard and James Leake could absolutely be players at AFL level, but it really felt like there was a clear top 10 and I wonder if the Dees and Giants are a bit mad doing what they did. Only time will tell.

    It feels so rare that the Crows land a top end talent that I really, really like, so I'm over the moon with Curtin. I do wonder a little bit if we could've ended up with O'Sullivan and Wilson had we held, but not disappointed at all with Curtin and Edwards.

    I really liked what the Bombers, Dockers, Eagles and Dogs did. Gold Coast probably the obvious winners given their Academy haul.

    A few of my favourite picks:

    Harry Demattia at 25 to Collingwood (even though it broke my heart as a Crows fan)
    Billy Wilson at 34 to Carlton
    Clay Hall at 38 to the Eagles
    Joel Freijah at 45 to Western Bulldogs
    Lachie Charleson at 52 to Port
    Jack Delean at 60 to Fremantle

    There's always a few hard luck stories but Koen Sanchez is the stiffest of them all I reckon. I think there are ALOT of players that got to clubs that aren't as good, nor have as much potential to contribute at AFL, compared to Sanchez. That one was a bit of a surprise for me.

    The Fox Footy draft show is a tough gig, but I found this year particularly tough to watch. The NBA haven't perfected it and the NFL isn't much better but I wonder if there's something that could be done to improve it. Unless its just me!

    Looking forward to the 2024 crop. My plan is to get a bit of a head start and get a 2024 thread up before the end of the year.
     

    Remove this Banner Ad

    Back
    Top