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Moira Deeming v John Pesutto

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Saint said:
I think that indemnification would work if you had somebody like Pesutto as leader. But what if you had Deeming? Indemnifying Deeming for saying silly things sounds like something which would send you broke.

From an electoral point of view, I don't think it really matters who's leading the party as long as it is so clearly divided between reasonable and unreasonable.

Or, the reasonable will consider that they can never win unless the party is united and that the unreasonable will never use such reason. So the only way to win is if the reasonable people cede to the unreasonable who take over and hope they can hide their stupidity long enough to get elected.
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After failing with Family First and the resurrected DLP the nutters decided that it was easier and a lot cheaper to take over the Liberal Party.
 
this is so funny ..... held hostage by a bunch of god bothering zealots - cheered on from the sidelines by equally unhinged morons like panahi, credlin and the rest of the murdoch hyena attack squad ....... what a f*n rabble
 
What would be the best case and worst case scenario for Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen in the upcoming Liberal leadership spill against Opposition Leader John Pesutto?
 

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CM86 said:
I feel like this should be a much larger current issue than it seems to be.



We have more media discussion and social media discussion about a set of stairs than this.

Would it be different if this was an ALP situation?
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The issue here is much, much too much discussion about stairs (although, to be fair, haven't seen much recently about the former Premier's fall).

When Andrews retired there was a long ALP party room meeting where Ben Carroll was essentially brow-beaten into withdrawing his nomination for leader. The story was over in two days. Once Pesutto was off the stand the story died down until the opportunists got texting to Shannon Deery and Annika Smethurst (the two journos almost certainly shared the same source) and now we are off.

Last night The Age was reporting Kim Wells was being sounded out about running for the leadership. The anti-Pesutto forces don't have a palatable candidate it would seem.
 
Allen would certainly want one of the nutter brigade to win. They'll have a hard-core support base who will be difficult to dislodge but also unelectable. They'll also have support from the National Liberal Party.

Think Trump, but with 20% less popular support. Completely incapable of Governing, but will be very hard to dislodge from the party leadership once they take over.

There's very few ALP MPs who could lose a state election to Moira Deeming. At the moment, it seems the Liberal Party room still understands that their leader needs to have popular support.

If a moderate wins (or stays), it's still a good result for Allen, because the nutters aren't quitting. The next election will undoubtedly include pre-selections of people for Liberal seats who have shady nutter-histories with statements and previous policy positions which will bleed votes. And with a moderate at the helm, the nutters are always trying to make the point (aided by Sky News) that the party isn't right-wing enough and go around saying right-wing-nutter-things which might be popular in outback Qld/NSW, but cost votes in Melbourne.

Won't be resolved until both wings of the party come to an agreement and compromise. Religious nutters are not renowned for their ability to compromise, so the moderates will probably end up compromising too far and remaining unelectable....
 
It'd be an all-time unforced error to dislodge Pessutto.

But challenging him and failing would be a good look for the party. Wonder if he is confident he has the numbers, hence the public comments, or he is simply tired of the bullshit.

It's amazing how poorly the party has been managed and the level of dysfunction or extremism that has been allowed to fester.

A boilerplate IPA guy, who went along with the usual crime scare and racist dogwhistle platform that we'd expect from more conservative members ends up looking quasi normal but only vs the absolute freaks in his own party that have been causing trouble ever since he became the leader.

It's genuinely shocking to me how Vic Libs got this out of step with Victorian voters.
 
happy to be corrected, but didnt wells try to engineer a move to a lower house seat years back .... his efforts fell flat with the local branches he was courting and the lib state exec?
 
well b*gger me with a fish fork ...... all these years i thought he was on an upper house pension

begs the question tho, who did i mistake him for :think:
 
The Punter said:
The issue here is much, much too much discussion about stairs (although, to be fair, haven't seen much recently about the former Premier's fall).

When Andrews retired there was a long ALP party room meeting where Ben Carroll was essentially brow-beaten into withdrawing his nomination for leader. The story was over in two days. Once Pesutto was off the stand the story died down until the opportunists got texting to Shannon Deery and Annika Smethurst (the two journos almost certainly shared the same source) and now we are off.

Last night The Age was reporting Kim Wells was being sounded out about running for the leadership. The anti-Pesutto forces don't have a palatable candidate it would seem.
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i was thinking that no obvious alternative was a major stumbling block. i mean, throwing up someone as wet behind the ears, and such a newbie, as groth says so much.

there are too many unelected peeps getting into the act. i see the disgraced former m.p tim smith has arisen from the politically dead to chime in.

pesutto, given some clear air, would have been a shoo-in to at least make major inroads into labor numbers.
 

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HurleyHepsHird said:
But challenging him and failing would be a good look for the party. Wonder if he is confident he has the numbers, hence the public comments, or he is simply tired of the bullshit.
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It wouldn't be the end of it I don't think.
I'd wager those who challenged and failed would try to derail his election chances in the middle of the campaign then oust him when he fails.
 
^^^

yep .... the bad blood generated here will linger for a looooong time
 
Redbridge poll this morning shows this is not cutting through the way some would like. Accompanying H-Sun report suggests the moves to replace JP have stalled for now.

No undecideds are moving their voting preference due to this court case. They are, however, dealing with all the kitchen table issues that Labor don't appear to be sufficiently interested in, especially if you don't live near the Cheltenham-Box Hill corridor. Kos Samaras' analysis of his poll says as much. JP was at Werribee Station yesterday morning (the Libs almost won Werribee in the 1990s). It's funny that despite being sued by a parliamentarian from Western Melbourne, it is the west that is providing the current opposition with a generational opportunity to win seats on the other side of the West Gate.
 
The Punter said:
Redbridge poll this morning shows this is not cutting through the way some would like. Accompanying H-Sun report suggests the moves to replace JP have stalled for now.

No undecideds are moving their voting preference due to this court case. They are, however, dealing with all the kitchen table issues that Labor don't appear to be sufficiently interested in, especially if you don't live near the Cheltenham-Box Hill corridor. Kos Samaras' analysis of his poll says as much. JP was at Werribee Station yesterday morning (the Libs almost won Werribee in the 1990s). It's funny that despite being sued by a parliamentarian from Western Melbourne, it is the west that is providing the current opposition with a generational opportunity to win seats on the other side of the West Gate.
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Why would the Liberals want to change leaders when they have a 10 point lead at the halfway stage of the road to the 2026 Victorian state election? Still, a lot can happen between now and election day in 2026.

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Jascave said:
Why would the Liberals want to change leaders when they have a 10 point lead at the halfway stage of the road to the 2026 Victorian state election? Still, a lot can happen between now and election day in 2026.

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Some don't want a more moderate leader to win an election and would rather lose. Some think the objective of the leader is to "take the fight up to Labor" (read Tim Smith in The Age if you want some insight into this thinking) rather than to win elections (even if that mean keeping the target small). And some are just crazy.
 

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The Punter said:
Redbridge poll this morning shows this is not cutting through the way some would like. Accompanying H-Sun report suggests the moves to replace JP have stalled for now.

No undecideds are moving their voting preference due to this court case. They are, however, dealing with all the kitchen table issues that Labor don't appear to be sufficiently interested in, especially if you don't live near the Cheltenham-Box Hill corridor. Kos Samaras' analysis of his poll says as much. JP was at Werribee Station yesterday morning (the Libs almost won Werribee in the 1990s). It's funny that despite being sued by a parliamentarian from Western Melbourne, it is the west that is providing the current opposition with a generational opportunity to win seats on the other side of the West Gate.
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It's not the now I would be worried about.

He has a target on his back. The moment it looks like he's sinking he gets knifed. Even if he won in 2026..
 
The Punter said:
That was earlier this week, and they couldn't agree on who should be the alternative. And after he became Premier it would be even harder.
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There was talk of Sam Groth but that wouldn't be attractive to the fringes of the party so would probably only be an option if Pesutto had to go. Battin was the other but if Pesutto felt he didn't have the numbers to beat Battin he would probably rather stand aside and let another moderate be the other option
 
hawkman said:
There was talk of Sam Groth but that wouldn't be attractive to the fringes of the party so would probably only be an option if Pesutto had to go. Battin was the other but if Pesutto felt he didn't have the numbers to beat Battin he would probably rather stand aside and let another moderate be the other option
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There was talk of a wide number of people earlier in the week. They couldn't coalesce around one alternative.

Meanwhile JP has the Libs in front. Poll was taken while JP was on the stand.

Those who truly want to win understand JP is the best option moving forward.
 
The Punter said:
There was talk of a wide number of people earlier in the week. They couldn't coalesce around one alternative.

Meanwhile JP has the Libs in front. Poll was taken while JP was on the stand.

Those who truly want to win understand JP is the best option moving forward.
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The real question is how many actually want to win. For probably at least a third that isn't the most important thing
 
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