Opinion Moneyball players

[LegendLewis]

Trade period so far has been utterly boring.
So for us facts and figures peeps out there who in the AFL would have Moneyball currency.
Players whose value is currently down and now is the time to buy low:
- as they are being played out of position
- playing in poor teams
- not getting a game as there are others in front of them.

My first nomination would be Toby Mclean whose 2018 was arguably a breakout year and big things were expected for 2019 and then he dropped down the pecking order and wasn't played in his best position.
As a Hawthorn supporter he would be on the top of my Moneyball wishlist to help out our midfield.

Interested in reading some other Moneyball worthy players from you astute Bigfooty contributors.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

It’s a valid thread but I’m pretty sure that isn’t what moneyball is - it’s about them having a particular attribute that makes them perform or perfect for a specific context, knowledge of which is derived through empirical data.

McLean, for example, is just a good (but not great) player in a deep midfield.

 

[TheLastCall]

Lochie Neil was a moneyball player last year. Filled a need for Brisbane.

I think B Hill is s moneyball play for StKilda, fills a big need for their team.

 

[Turbocat]

The original way that moneyball was used in the book and film ... a player has some attribute that makes them a little unfavoured.. yet still performs ..

They talked about old guys , guys who pitched funny , guys who could not play their preferred position anymore , guys who were trouble makers...

In draft terms id say Miers with his kicking style was a moneyball pick .. he kicked 7 goals in a GF , runs top 2 or 3 at the Combine but has a funny kicking style so drops to 50 something.

So in that ...Scully and Patton probably fit... as a trade.. Lake was ... maybe Jack Steven

9

Jack Steven

Age

34

Ht

180cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

12.7

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

14.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

4star

CL

2.5

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

0.8

3star

will be for Geelong.

 

[LegendLewis]

It’s a valid thread but I’m pretty sure that isn’t what moneyball is - it’s about them having a particular attribute that makes them perform or perfect for a specific context, knowledge of which is derived through empirical data.

McLean, for example, is just a good (but not great) player in a deep midfield.

Yeah completely agree in its purest essence. I was looking at it in a more broader sense of buying value players at a low price.

 

[LegendLewis]

The original way was moneyball was used in the book and film ... a player has some attribute that makes them a little unfavoured.. yet still performs ..

They talked about old guys , guys who pitched funny , guys who could not play their preferred position anymore , guys who were trouble makers...

In draft terms id say Miers with his kicking style was a moneyball pick .. he kicked 7 goals in a GF , runs top 2 or 3 at the Combine but has a funny kicking style so drops to 50 something.

So in that ...Scully and Patton probably fit... as a trade.. Lake was ... maybe Jack Steven will be for Geelong.

I think Miers is a great current example of a player who is way down the pecking order that could be a great get for a team with less midfielders.

 

[HTPunter]

I think Miers is a great current example of a player who is way down the pecking order that could be a great get for a team with less midfielders.

Finished 10th in their B&F playing all 25 games and looks a lot more suited to a small forward role at AFL level than any other position.

 

[Turbocat]

Yeah completely agree in its purest essence. I was looking at it in a more broader sense of buying value players at a low price.

Its diverged into that in afl... more as a value pick or trade..

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

For me Langdon could be. It probably depends on what game style the team he plays for plays but if it is one where territory is key then he will be a great pickup.

 

[Geoffa32]

Josh Jenkins has been a great Moneyball player for us.

Under $600k for a guy who has regularly kicked 40 plus goals. Can also chop out in the Ruck.

Despite his size he is not a big key forward. Cant crash packs or take big Mark's regularly. Although his contested marking stat is ok.

If he played as a true Key Forward his salary would be much higher, over $800k.

But for $550-$600k for a guy who averages 2 goals a game and can play second Ruck he is good value.


Would best suit a team who can move the ball into their forward line quickly. For me he would be a great Moneyball player for Essendon with Daniher leaving.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Little Big John]

In the true moneyball sense, I'd say Levi Casboult.

Maligned, not all that unfairly, as a terrible kick, he has a rare skillset of being a great, 200cm contested mark. His reputation in the former category, particularly as a KPF, renders his assumed trade/salary worth rather low, yet if played as a KPD his weaknesses are mitigated and there's not exactly an abundance of players in the AFL with his strengths. Ergo, value.

I don't actually want to trade Casboult (for precisely these reasons), but I think it's an interesting thought excercise. I'd think players from other "unsexy" positions and skillsets (tap-ruckmen, taggers, small defenders) would be useful candidates for teams that are lacking them, rucks in particular due to their rarity.

 

[Mofra]

Sam Lloyd - not overly quick, not tall, but has genuine goal sense and cost little at the trade table.
Jarrad Lyons a candidate as well, had a brilliant year.

 

[cdcanman]

It’s a valid thread but I’m pretty sure that isn’t what moneyball is - it’s about them having a particular attribute that makes them perform or perfect for a specific context, knowledge of which is derived through empirical data.

McLean, for example, is just a good (but not great) player in a deep midfield.

Lucky I continued reading as this was exactly what I was going to post.
So many people, including coaches, recruiters/list managers and media types throw out the phrase 'moneyball' without any understanding of what it means.

Sam Powell-Pepper would be a better example of a legit 'moneyball' type.
Very good contested ball-winner/clearance player, but besides this skill offers little else at even an average level. So if your team lacks in ball-winners at the coalface, and the rest of your midfield can cover for his deficiencies, then SPP might be your man.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

We've tried our hand at it in recent years, went ok at picking up moneyball trades.

- Pittard (Steak Knives)
- Williams (Pick 105)
- Ahern (Pick in the 60's)


As for the draft, we've all had hidden gems late in the draft and rookie draft.

 

[DangerSloane]

I think in footy the real 'moneyball' options to be found are depth at clubs where they have a strong starting lineup in that area.

For example someone mentioned Toby McLean here. Perfect example. Cant play in his true position because of the extremely strong WB midfield.

I think from a crows perspective players like Lyons, CEY and Greenwood are similar. All inside mids behind the Crouch bros and Sloane. Come cheaply to other clubs and provide more output than their cost.

Its not like baseball where the numbers and stats tell a lot more of the story

 

[Purple Suit]

I think in footy the real 'moneyball' options to be found are depth at clubs where they have a strong starting lineup in that area.

For example someone mentioned Toby McLean here. Perfect example. Cant play in his true position because of the extremely strong WB midfield.

I think from a crows perspective players like Lyons, CEY and Greenwood are similar. All inside mids behind the Crouch bros and Sloane. Come cheaply to other clubs and provide more output than their cost.

Its not like baseball where the numbers and stats tell a lot more of the story

There seems to be very few success stories from every year for the "moneyball" trades. Unless the player absolutely dominates, they generally don't get much attention or they can't sustain it for the whole year. A lot of bit players continue to be bit players at their new club.

Gary Rohan was a "moneyball" trade last year that worked out well for the cats.

I'd like to get Angus Brayshaw off Melbourne and see his output improve if he was playing back on the ball.

 

[Sector 7G]

It’s a valid thread but I’m pretty sure that isn’t what moneyball is - it’s about them having a particular attribute that makes them perform or perfect for a specific context, knowledge of which is derived through empirical data.

McLean, for example, is just a good (but not great) player in a deep midfield.

Garthwaite at Richmond was one of the very few moneyball selections. Awkward running style and looks like a bad kick but as a junior had surprisingly high DE. Undersized for a KPD but lost very few contests.

Didn't look like a great prospect and slipped to the end of the draft, but if you just looked at the important stats he was significantly undervalued.

 

[DangerSloane]

There seems to be very few success stories from every year for the "moneyball" trades. Unless the player absolutely dominates, they generally don't get much attention or they can't sustain it for the whole year. A lot of bit players continue to be bit players at their new club.

Gary Rohan was a "moneyball" trade last year that worked out well for the cats.

I'd like to get Angus Brayshaw off Melbourne and see his output improve if he was playing back on the ball.

He was. That worked out alright.

Sam Lloyd was probably the pick of the cheap pickups for 2019 for the bulldogs.

The true 'moneyball' style only really works for baseball or fantasy sports.

 

[SL16]

Jarryd Lyons

 

[AFDogs]

I really like the Toby McLean nomination (no I don't want him to leave either but coudn't begrudge him if he did for more midfield minutes).

Dan Butler springs to mind. I really like Jordan Dawson from Sydney, reckon he could be a force and isn't on every bodies radars (yet).

Sam Lloyd was a great pickup for us. Perfect list management as he wasn't getting a game at the Tigers.

Reckon Charlie Constable could be this years absolute steal.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Blake Acres, or is he just going to be a continual tease?

 

[DangerSloane]

I really like the Toby McLean nomination (no I don't want him to leave either but coudn't begrudge him if he did for more midfield minutes).

Dan Butler springs to mind. I really like Jordan Dawson from Sydney, reckon he could be a force and isn't on every bodies radars (yet).

Sam Lloyd was a great pickup for us. Perfect list management as he wasn't getting a game at the Tigers.

Reckon Charlie Constable could be this years absolute steal.

Is Constable on the move?
Tough midfield to crack.

 

[DangerSloane]

Blake Acres, or is he just going to be a continual tease?

I dont see a huge amount of St Kilda but every time I see him he looks awful.

 

[B4Bear]

Blake Acres, or is he just going to be a continual tease?

Is he related to Mason Wood?

 

[QuietB]

The original way was moneyball was used in the book and film ... a player has some attribute that makes them a little unfavoured.. yet still performs ..

They talked about old guys , guys who pitched funny , guys who could not play their preferred position anymore , guys who were trouble makers...

In draft terms id say Miers with his kicking style was a moneyball pick .. he kicked 7 goals in a GF , runs top 2 or 3 at the Combine but has a funny kicking style so drops to 50 something.

So in that ...Scully and Patton probably fit... as a trade.. Lake was ... maybe Jack Steven will be for Geelong.

That is pretty much my understanding as well. Instead of measuring size and height and speed and power, which incidentally is an AFL fascination with finding athletes rather than footballers, instead just look at the performance stats. In baseball, how many hits, how many errors, etc. Baseball lends it self to moneybag due to the endless stats.

AFL is full of players who have slipped massively down the draft because they had some perceived flaw. Sam Mitchell was lucky to get drafted for example and ended up being a superstar. He could find the footy well before being drafted, he won the JJ Liston playing about a dozen games so all of that football ability was on show. But he was perceived as un-athletic so no one was interested. You could name a 100 players that have slipped like this.

The big problem with AFL is players are drafted and scrapped too early. They don't even get a chance to show what they can do.