Opinion Moneyball players

[Jeremias]

Lochi Neil was a moneyball player last year. Filled a need for Brisbane.

I think B Hill is s moneyball play for StKilda, fills a big need for thei

Neale?

Was a star at Fremantle and is a star at Brisbane.

Not even close to moneyball.

 

[Kramer1]

For Carlton it's Liam Jones. Didn't live up to expectation at the WBs, was almost out the door at Carlton, and I think most still view him as a battler. Quietly turned himself into one of the better KPDs going around.

 

[Orange Agent]

Not recent but Matt DeBoer for us. Slotted straight in to the playing group and bought something to the 22 that was missing and just gets better and more important for us each year.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Francis Watson is a good sort, I feel he becomes an important regular after Jetta retires.

Matt Allen may be delisted but deserves a rookie spot somewhere at least. Third tall forward type who had transformed into a decent midfielder.

 

[Falchoon]

Nic Newman would be one.

Somewhat undervalued by his original club, probably brought in as back up to Simpson, filled in for Docherty. Is taller than you night think, rangy left foot.



One player I'd pursue with vigour would be Zac Williams at GWS, it's more out in the open now but the guy is a potential midfield beast, his clearance work is underrated, though to be fair, he probably isn't.

I'd be very happy to overpay versus his current output though.

 

[Belnakor]

For me Langdon could be. It probably depends on what game style the team he plays for plays but if it is one where territory is key then he will be a great pickup.

langdon is actually a great example of a player who looks good on paper but if you "moneyball" his contribution you'd realize he is complete s**t.

His kicking and more importantly decision making would be in the bottom 5 players in the league. He burns ball constantly, turnover mechant.

A club who doesn't do the stats would pay more than he is worth.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

langdon is actually a great example of a player who looks good on paper but if you "moneyball" his contribution you'd realize he is complete s**t.

His kicking and more importantly decision making would be in the bottom 5 players in the league. He burns ball constantly, turnover mechant.

A club who doesn't do the stats would pay more than he is worth.

See that’s why he needs to find the right home. If he is at a team who mostly just want to gain territory then that weakness can be hid somewhat because kicking efficiency isn’t as important.
We have similar worries about Dow atm, players like Treloar and Danger are pretty horrible kicks too and they are a couple of the best players in the league. A team will be out there who could use his strengths brilliantly where in other sides they would just highlight his glaring weakness.

 

[Nal81]

Lions have done well Moneyball wise over the past few years. I would put Mitch Robinson and Lincoln McCarthy as Moneyball players.

To me Moneyball is looking for a diamond in the rough and getting more out of them in the new environment.

 

[Tap Tap Tapperoo]

Blake Acres, or is he just going to be a continual tease?

I would say Acres is an anti-moneyball pick up. Guys like him, Mason Wood, even Jack Martin are somewhat hyped due to physical traits such size or speed, but statistically, I don’t believe they have produced anything.

 

[Scotland]

Moneyball would be picking up someone like Matthew Allen or Josh Rotham who consistently play well for WC in the WAFL but don't seem to be close to getting a regular game at AFL level, or a game at all at AFL level in the case of Allen, and then turning them into good AFL level players. These are the sort of guys you can entice with a 2 or 3 year deal on low money and get for a 3rd or 4th round pick. Every club has players like this, but most don't go on to bigger and better things. Gotta pick your targets.

You could go for someone like Jackson Nelson who has played 44 games in 4 years (including our last 12) but I think he's already shown what he can and can't do so you'd really just be getting him to play the role he does now. Again, every team has guys like this.

Alternatively, you could go down the Ricky Henderson path. Joined Hawthorn at the end of 2016 and has played 3 seasons at 29, 30 and 31. A 28/29 year old fringe player from another team is rarely seen as someone that will improve, but he's been great. Looking at our list it's only really Schofield who could fall into that category. Our players are mostly young/in their prime or so old that they aren't going to move. I doubt any club would want Hurn/Kennedy turning 34 in 2021. Ben McEvoy (30) or Isaac Smith (31) could be useful older targets. Not give aways by any means but could be valuable pieces to contending sides. McEvoy is easily better than any of our ruckmen except a fit NicNat.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Think Michael Barlow.

Ugly kicking style, not quick, ugly running style but knows how to find the ball and the goals.

 

[Bestbird]

Some players drafted who are high production juniors but rated as little scope for improvement. Worpel

Or KP tweeners like Darling

 

[Damon_3388]

In the true moneyball sense, I'd say Levi Casboult.

Maligned, not all that unfairly, as a terrible kick, he has a rare skillset of being a great, 200cm contested mark. His reputation in the former category, particularly as a KPF, renders his assumed trade/salary worth rather low, yet if played as a KPD his weaknesses are mitigated and there's not exactly an abundance of players in the AFL with his strengths. Ergo, value.

I don't actually want to trade Casboult (for precisely these reasons), but I think it's an interesting thought excercise. I'd think players from other "unsexy" positions and skillsets (tap-ruckmen, taggers, small defenders) would be useful candidates for teams that are lacking them, rucks in particular due to their rarity.

You could view Liam Jones in a similar sense too.

 

[Warhorse]

Ben keays. Always thought he could play a tom lynch (adelaide) style link between the midfield and forwardline who can hit the scoreboard hard.

Waterman from west coast. Seen him play in the wafl and has an excellent game. Could turn into a star as a lead up forward with strong hands. The tweeter forwards are under appreciated and he can play as a make shift tall forward for periods of time when required.

Cox as a ruckman. Tall and under appreciated. Even when he doesn't touch the ball he does not lose contests in the forward line.

Nick Shipley. Turn him into a tagger. Pay him peanuts whilst he makes well paid midfielders redundant.

 

[RFC4Life]

Marlion Pickett

On SM-G970F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Jack Crisp was the steakknives in the Wayne Beams to Brisbane trade, but has become a very valuable player for The Pies.. He has to be right up there in this conversation.

 

[sr36]

For the best money ball options, look to the state leagues. Every year, a few on draftee wages step straight into AFL teams and perform from the get go.

 

[Sidthehat]

Sam Lloyd - not overly quick, not tall, but has genuine goal sense and cost little at the trade table.
Jarrad Lyons a candidate as well, had a brilliant year.

Think he is ultimate moneyball player.

 

[austinnn]

For us, maybe Brandon White, but hard to back it up as he hasn't played enough games for a decent stats sample.

Aggressive and determined mid-sized defender who can kick a goal, not really given a chance under Richardson for reasons unknown, rumours of his lack of commitment to the cause and work ethic but nothing a change of scene couldn't fix.

Would be very cheap to free, and still young. Drafted same year as Gresham iirc. Don't want to lose him, but fear that he's another talent we couldn't develop.

 

[CM9000]

Moneyball refers to "sabermetrics" in Baseball, which basically means that you look at a player mainly based on statistics, rather than assessing them on ones own judgement i.e. a percieved flaw might not actually mean that player can't perform. Really, it just means looking at a sport empirically (purely based on data).

This works better for different sports, depending on how that sport is played. Baseball, for example, is highly segmented in each part of the game - this means everything is more predictable. It has less variables to deal with when it comes to calculations.

When it comes to Aussie rules though, I'm not sure it necessarily works. Due to the amount of variables at play in a single match, the massive amount of freedom afforded in our game (in terms of rules) in comparison to others, and the fact that it is incredibly unpredictable overall, it doesn't fit well with the sport.

Just look at the analysis of lists by Champion Data at the end of 2018 - they ended up rating Melbourne as the best list in the competition, and then the club itself ended up second last the following year.

That's not to say the ethos of it can't be applied to Aussie rules, but the exact version related to the movie/book doesn't really work.

 

[dmc333]

Moneyball in an AFL context is basically players who've clogged a list for long enough to get some name awareness or played one good season, two seasons ago. They're finished at their current club and will probably come cheap.

 

[Underarm]

McLean isn't a moneyball player. Western Bulldogs know his value and would ask for a top pick for him.

Moneyball would be picking up someone like Matthew Allen or Josh Rotham who consistently play well for WC in the WAFL but don't seem to be close to getting a regular game at AFL level, or a game at all at AFL level in the case of Allen, and then turning them into good AFL level players. These are the sort of guys you can entice with a 2 or 3 year deal on low money and get for a 3rd or 4th round pick. Every club has players like this, but most don't go on to bigger and better things. Gotta pick your targets.

For me, Richmond pulled themselves out of their rut when they picked up Grigg, Houli and Maric in 2010/11 and only gave up pick 37. Nankervis in 2017 for 46 was a steal as well.

Sidney Stack and Pickett are looking like good picks that clubs overlooked for whatever reason. As you said, all premiership sides have stories like these. You can't build a premiership list without them.

 

[WilloTree]

I really like the Toby McLean nomination (no I don't want him to leave either but coudn't begrudge him if he did for more midfield minutes).

Dan Butler springs to mind. I really like Jordan Dawson from Sydney, reckon he could be a force and isn't on every bodies radars (yet).

Sam Lloyd was a great pickup for us. Perfect list management as he wasn't getting a game at the Tigers.

Reckon Charlie Constable could be this years absolute steal.

Constable is a good example. To use a moneyball scenario:

Geelong lose Kelly who averages 25.4 disposals and a goal a game. You can't replace him with like-for-like, and even if you could Geelong couldn't afford it.

They play Constable (who is already on their list, so is cheap) who averages 21.4 and .7
Bring in Stevens who will only cost a 2nd Rounder due to 'mental health' (cheap) who averages 19.0 and .7

Cats make up the loss of Kelly on field in the aggregate and only have to pay a 2nd Rounder and Stevens' wage.

 

[Scotland]

Matthew Broadbent come on down.

Now a DFA and despite looking 45 is only 29.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I really like the Toby McLean nomination (no I don't want him to leave either but coudn't begrudge him if he did for more midfield minutes).

Dan Butler springs to mind. I really like Jordan Dawson from Sydney, reckon he could be a force and isn't on every bodies radars (yet).

Sam Lloyd was a great pickup for us. Perfect list management as he wasn't getting a game at the Tigers.

Reckon Charlie Constable could be this years absolute steal.

Good luck trying to nab Charlie Constable. Highly rated at the cats but was definitely moneyball in the true sense that he slid a long way back because of his endurance. Cats signed him long term precisely because they knew how long it would take to get his fitness base up.