Opinion Moneyball players

[CatToTheFuture]

Marlion Pickett

On SM-G970F using BigFooty.com mobile app

His mate Tim also did alright

 

[Prochard123]

In terms of both salary and trade worth

From last year: Lyons, Roughead, Newman

From this year: Scharenberg, Betts, Jenkins (if Adelaide pays most of salary)

 

[Damon_3388]

Jack Trengove (former #2 pick for Melbourne), if he wants to continue his AFL career? Surely GC could use him as a hardened body for 10-15 games?

He won Port Adelaide's SANFL B&F while playing just 16 of 21 games, but was also de-listed by the Power (who have some very odd selection policies, and ways to showing they value their players) almost immediately after the AFL season wrapped up.

Averaged 30.8 disposals (at 75% efficiency), 7.6 marks, 4.8 clearances, 6.4 tackles, 4 inside 50s and 2.4 rebound 50s per game, playing as an inside mid for the Port Magpies. Clearly still has the workrate and hunger required.

Honestly surprised the Power find no use for him in 2020. They don't need more inside mids, but they need better ball use, and he'd at the very least upgrade their disposal efficiency in the middle.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Trade period so far has been utterly boring.
So for us facts and figures peeps out there who in the AFL would have Moneyball currency.
Players whose value is currently down and now is the time to buy low:
- as they are being played out of position
- playing in poor teams
- not getting a game as there are others in front of them.

My first nomination would be Toby Mclean whose 2018 was arguably a breakout year and big things were expected for 2019 and then he dropped down the pecking order and wasn't played in his best position.
As a Hawthorn supporter he would be on the top of my Moneyball wishlist to help out our midfield.

Interested in reading some other Moneyball worthy players from you astute Bigfooty contributors.

For there to be a "moneyball" player, we first have to identify a stat that is key to winning, but grossly undervalued, then target players based on that system.

 

[Damon_3388]

For there to be a "moneyball" player, we first have to identify a stat that is key to winning, but grossly undervalued, then target players based on that system.

I think that AFL lends itself to being less situationally affected by stats than baseball, as footy is a 360 degree game with more variables, and not "turn based".

Given that, in a footy context, the term probably just relates to getting value for money, or finding decent labour on the cheap to plug a gap, rather than focussing on high priced "sure things" or relying solely on drafting and long-term development of top end talent to carry you.

 

[Scotland]

Stats mean less every year. Disposal numbers are like watching a game of basketball and counting how many times each player touches the ball.

 

[Damon_3388]

Stats mean less every year. Disposal numbers are like watching a game of basketball and counting how many times each player touches the ball.

Yeah, if you're just looking at disposal numbers alone, and attributing meaning to those, you're probably not going to get very far.

We can use analytics and advanced stats to prove/disprove ideas about players, track trends and bust myths, etc. On the surface, it appears less of an exact science than it can be in baseball, due to the nature of our game, but then again, it's never really been explored as to whether an analytics-based team structure and recruitment strategy would or could work, either. As a fan base, we've probably collectively got more faith in the eye test and less in stats than anyone in baseball ever had, even with the advent and availability of more advanced numbers in recent years.

Effective use of statistics is as much about understanding the stats, the culture, and receptiveness of the audience, too.

 

[smokie]

Josh Kennedy springs to mind as one of the best. Was behind Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Sewell. This year McLean, Brayshaw from Melbourne or a Rich small fwd not a regular in the 22. Any club with strong depth in 1 area I think is applicable. Frost?

 

[Back One Out]

I think Miers is a great current example of a player who is way down the pecking order that could be a great get for a team with less midfielders.

Bollocks.

Miers is a local teenage kid from Geelong who just enjoyed the best debut season of any small forward since Cyril Rioli.

He showed that he will be handy 10 year player for the Cats

Not a chance in hell the Cats will let him walk.

The so-calked “Moneyball” players are the d-grade hacks playing in the VFL who can’t get a game. They are the guys that none of us really know much about. Not even the fans of the club who drafted them.

 

[Back One Out]

Josh Kennedy springs to mind as one of the best. Was behind Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Sewell. This year McLean, Brayshaw from Melbourne or a Rich small fwd not a regular in the 22. Any club with strong depth in 1 area I think is applicable. Frost?

No.

Neither Josh Kennedy nor Sam Frost were “moneyball” pickups. These players were casualties of the salary cap. Guys who were down the pecking order, looking for greater opportunity or better pay and were made a decent offer by a club in need.

Moneyball is Brisbane luring over the hill veterans Hodge and Birchall up north for peanuts to guide their young defenders and squeeze every last drop of football out of them.

Moneyball is Adelaide plucking 25yo Alex Keath from the SA cricket squad as a category B rookie and slotting him into their defence to replace Jake Lever and then ontrading him for a draft pick a couple of years later.

Richmond picking up Bachar Houli in the pre-season draft in 2010/11 and converting the failed small forward/mid into a high possession skilful distributor at half back

The Hawks did the same with Brent Guerra back in 2006. Picked up the underperforming nuggety half forward cheaply via the PSD and slotted him into defence where he carved out an illustrious 250 game career and made ample use of his brilliant left foot.

Or what about Hawthorn bringing in unwanted veterans Tom Scully and Ricky Henderson to play on the wing and replace the running power lost with the departures of Hill, Lewis and Suckling? The Hawks were prepared to take on Scully’s pay packet and broken ankle with no guarantees he’d ever fully recover. Henderson was a delisted journeyman approaching 30 years of age whom nobody wanted.

Richmond using their Top 30 draft picks on speedy small forwards llke Dan Rioli, Jason Castagna and Shai Bolton. Not so much for their goalkicking, but for their constant defensive pressure & creating turnovers


But the reality is these Moneyball analogies don’t really apply to the AFL because as others have already said, it’s all about picking up deficient undervalued players who possess a particular skill or ability that is highly valued by one club and overlooked and under appreciated by everyone else. Finding the soft spots in the marketplace and acquiring valued statistical commodities which aren’t recognised by your competitors

Maybe if a club was to slot a broken down ex-CHF into defence to make use of his accurate long kicking while getting his former club to pay the bulk of his salary.

Something like that...

(Brent Guerra probably the closest from the examples above. Where others saw a slow short overweight small forward who lacked discipline, Clarko saw an exquisite foot-passing machine who would take our kickouts for the next 10 years and pinpoint his passes on every defensive rebound. To this day, nobody really rates him, a forgotten Hawk, but he was highly valued internally.

 

[KermitJagger]

To my knowledge, moneyball simply means trading in undervalued assets and trading out overvalued assets. It works both ways.

Overvalued out: GWS not being too bothered about losing Shiel is a good one, knowing that he was seen as a star but not being overly damaging. Getting good value for him.
Undervalued in: Hawthorn drafting Paul Puopolo purely to maximise his pressure and physical attributes in a completely different role.

 

[Scotland]

'Moneyball' is flawed in an AFL context because all teams operate under a hard salary cap. 95%-105% year to year is nothing when you consider that the Oakland A's (the team in Moneyball) spent $93m this season, the league average is $137m, and four teams spent $200m+. Good luck building a competitive AFL team with $8m when most are spending $12.4m and some are spending $18m.

It's a shame that player salaries aren't public. People argue 'it's none of your business' but with $12.4m per team spread across 40 odd players with a set minimum and no set maximum it would be interesting to see who gets what. I've seen reports that McGovern, Gaff, Shuey, Kennedy, Naitanui, Darling, Yeo, now Kelly... are all on big money. There's a fair bit of 'Well this guy was offered what I think is about $1.2m a year to leave and stayed so I think he's on $1.2m' going on, mind. But even if they are all on 70-80% of what is reported, $12.4m only goes so far so someone other than the first/second year players has to be getting less. Moneyball is as much about timing your signings well whether they are players coming in or players you already have. Brad Sheppard re-signed in early 2016 for 3 years starting 2017, and after one good season and 5 OK ones I doubt it was for anything more than $4-500k per season. He's been a gun the last 3 years so that's a bargain. One or two guys like that (Barrass, Sheed, Hutchings) and one or two young players stepping up (Ryan, Rioli) makes a big difference to a team.

 

[HolyRioli]

'Moneyball' is flawed in an AFL context because all teams operate under a hard salary cap. 95%-105% year to year is nothing when you consider that the Oakland A's (the team in Moneyball) spent $93m this season, the league average is $137m, and four teams spent $200m+. Good luck building a competitive AFL team with $8m when most are spending $12.4m and some are spending $18m.

It's a shame that player salaries aren't public. People argue 'it's none of your business' but with $12.4m per team spread across 40 odd players with a set minimum and no set maximum it would be interesting to see who gets what. I've seen reports that McGovern, Gaff, Shuey, Kennedy, Naitanui, Darling, Yeo, now Kelly... are all on big money. There's a fair bit of 'Well this guy was offered what I think is about $1.2m a year to leave and stayed so I think he's on $1.2m' going on, mind. But even if they are all on 70-80% of what is reported, $12.4m only goes so far so someone other than the first/second year players has to be getting less. Moneyball is as much about timing your signings well whether they are players coming in or players you already have. Brad Sheppard re-signed in early 2016 for 3 years starting 2017, and after one good season and 5 OK ones I doubt it was for anything more than $4-500k per season. He's been a gun the last 3 years so that's a bargain. One or two guys like that (Barrass, Sheed, Hutchings) and one or two young players stepping up (Ryan, Rioli) makes a big difference to a team.

Correct, though at it's base definition it's about building an under-costed team that's the sum of its parts without the expensive star power. It maximises players strengths and hides their deficiencies.

A money-ball team in the AFL might look like (and apologies if offend anyone if I mis-respresent any players as non-stars of the game):
- Cunnington (wins first possession and clearance as well as anyone, can be found wanting outside)
- Puopolo (small forward pressure and tackling)
- Jenkins (big body, kicks goals)
- Witts (wins hitouts / ruck contests)

etc

 

[Taylor]

Moneyball in AFL would be a ruckman that never touches the ball around the ground and can't mark but will put it to advantage way ahead of average so your clearances are cleaner.

Moneyball in AFL would be taking a back pocket who has a retained possession percentage way higher, and is overlooked for that because so many defenders kick sideways, but someone noticed that his kicking choices were better and moved him to a wing, now his increased retention percentage corresponds with marks inside fifty and you score more.

 

[KermitJagger]

Moneyball in AFL would be a ruckman that never touches the ball around the ground and can't mark but will put it to advantage way ahead of average so your clearances are cleaner.

Moneyball in AFL would be taking a back pocket who has a retained possession percentage way higher, and is overlooked for that because so many defenders kick sideways, but someone noticed that his kicking choices were better and moved him to a wing, now his increased retention percentage corresponds with marks inside fifty and you score more.

Pretty much what Hawthorn did recruiting Puopolo as a back pocket and turning him into a forward pocket. High pressure, high tackle count, ground ball get player with good speed. Perfect for a small forward.

 

[Back One Out]

Freo signing Jesse Hogan, Cam McCarthy, Harley Bennell and Colin Sylvia on big coin

Oh, wait...

That was Moneyballsup



inb4Vickery

 

[Taylor]

Freo signing Jesse Hogan, Cam McCarthy, Harley Bennell and Colin Sylvia on big coin

Oh, wait...

That was Moneyballsup



inb4Vickery

We'll just have to Tuck that one away in our history.

 

[Channels]

S. Dew

 

[Scotland]

S. Dew

Certainly good value by the kilo.

 

[Back One Out]

Certainly good value by the kilo.

Recruited to provide... (and I quote) "premiership experience"

 

[Scotland]

Will live off that forever. Fair enough, I would too. McGovern to Vardy to Ryan to Sheed to premiership is a meme of sorts. What's Vardy done since? Still a gumby Ivan Drago but he had his moment in the sun.

I remember 0 of his Hawthorn career other than the two goals in the 2008 GF. Apparently he played in 2009 too. Didn't notice.

I hope people still remember that he played an entire career for Port. A few (presumably young) people seem to have forgotten about the first half of Shaun Burgoyne's career where was just as skillful but young and much more explosive and a gun mid/forward but Dew played 180/206 games with the Power. Had a pretty good finals record and kicked 51 goals in a season once. All of them from 65m I'm sure. He's not just the fat guy who broke Geelong hearts.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Bollocks.

Miers is a local teenage kid from Geelong who just enjoyed the best debut season of any small forward since Cyril Rioli.

He showed that he will be handy 10 year player for the Cats

Not a chance in hell the Cats will let him walk.

The so-calked “Moneyball” players are the d-grade hacks playing in the VFL who can’t get a game. They are the guys that none of us really know much about. Not even the fans of the club who drafted them.

Miers' season wasn't even better than Stephenson's from the year before, let alone "the best debut season of any small forward since Cyril Rioli"

 

[Scotland]

Jesus Christ, there is club bias, and then there's this comment.

Miers' season wasn't even better than Stephenson's from the year before, let alone "the best debut season of any small forward since Cyril Rioli"

But he doesn't go for Geelong...?

Miers was good, but he's no Willie Rioli 2018. Will miss the little pork chop.

 

[Virgin Dog]

But he doesn't go for Geelong...?

Miers was good, but he's no Willie Rioli 2018. Will miss the little pork chop.

Edited. Could name a lot of players who were easily better than Miers in their debut season. Brent Daniels and Jack Higgins too

 

[Mitchell54]

All the Hawthorn trade ones have really been mentioned but I'll raise Ceglar as someone that got delisted from Collingwood and now has been a very serviceable player for the Hawks.

2009 Rookie draft proved good for the Hawks. Managed to get Luke Bruest & Mathew Suckling(along with a few busts) from the draft. Both been great players at the club especially Bruest.