Most Favorable Fixture Draws In AFL History? (Single Season)

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iluvparis

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#32
Rather than people claiming there team always gets a hard draw you could just go back and look at average ladder position of double up teams and get a FACTUAL result.
 

PowerForGood

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#33
Rather than people claiming there team always gets a hard draw you could just go back and look at average ladder position of double up teams and get a FACTUAL result.
Reality is that the fixture difficulty is scaled according to finishing position so always easier draws for lower placed teams, but only based on the previous years results of course.

Looking retrospectively is a great research project but ultimately means nothing in terms of how fixtures are assigned based on difficulty. Whoever got Essendon double up got a raw deal this year, and whoever got the Bulldogs twice got a leg up. But you cant blame the teams or the AFL for those.
 

iluvparis

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#34
Looking retrospectively is a great research project but ultimately means nothing in terms of how fixtures are assigned based on difficulty. Whoever got Essendon double up got a raw deal this year, and whoever got the Bulldogs twice got a leg up. But you cant blame the teams or the AFL for those.
Err wut - it shows you exactly who had the easiest draw.
 

mikey127

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#35
Richmond this year have had a very easy run. they played finals 3 years in a row, had 1 bad year and got a dream draw this year.
 

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chiwigi

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#37
RANK CLUB DIFFICULTY TEAMS TO PLAY TWICE
1 Hawthorn +1204 Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney Swans
2 GWS +1025 Geelong, Richmond, Sydney Swans, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
3 St Kilda +951 Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney Swans
4 Western Bulldogs +719 Brisbane Lions, GWS, North Melbourne, Sydney Swans, West Coast
5 Fremantle +465 Geelong, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, Essendon
6 Geelong +425 Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle
7 Collingwood +253 Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Port Adelaide
8 Melbourne +246 Adelaide, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Collingwood, Carlton
9 Sydney Swans +49 Carlton, GWS, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
10 West Coast -55 Western Bulldogs, GWS, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Fremantle
11 Brisbane Lions -390 Gold Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide
12 Gold Coast -470 Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide
13 Adelaide -523 Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong
14 Essendon -538 Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle
15 Port Adelaide -610 Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Gold Coast, Collingwood
16 Carlton -741 Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon, Gold Coast, Sydney Swans
17 Richmond -986 GWS, St Kilda, Carlton, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions
18 North Melbourne -1024 Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold

This was done when the fixture ACTUALLY came out. Richmond clearly had the easier draw of the top 8 this season.
It can't be done retrospectively as beating the teams pushes them down the ladder! The difficulty can only be assessed at the time of creation of the draw.

Ports were expected to finish bottom 4 as well, even with this draw.
 

iluvparis

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#38
RANK CLUB DIFFICULTY TEAMS TO PLAY TWICE

It can't be done retrospectively as beating the teams pushes them down the ladder! The difficulty can only be assessed at the time of creation of the draw.
Yes it can - calculate win SR of double up teams EXCLUDING the games between the two teams
 

chiwigi

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#39
Yes it can - calculate win SR of double up teams EXCLUDING the games between the two teams
No, because games don't occur in isolation, the occur as part of the season. The only relevant time to assess the fairness and difficulty of a draw is before the season begins. Otherwise you are playing with variables and using exclusions that cannot be justified.
 

iluvparis

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#40
No, because games don't occur in isolation, the occur as part of the season. The only relevant time to assess the fairness and difficulty of a draw is before the season begins. Otherwise you are playing with variables and using exclusions that cannot be justified.
What are you talking about? So if every team Carlton doubled up against next season doped in the off season and played with VFL top ups you are saying there is no categorical way to prove that is a more favorable draw?

PB plz!

It is a simple matter of fact to calculate which team in hindsight had the easiest draw based on the relative strength of opponents they ended up playing.
 

iluvparis

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#41
I did the calcs for two teams.

Average win rate of teams Carlton played twice excluding games played against Carlton: 52%
AVerage win rate of teams Essendon played twice excluding games played against Essendon: 37%

Essendon ended up having an unambiguously more favorable draw this year.
 

Ron The Bear

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#42
RANK CLUB DIFFICULTY TEAMS TO PLAY TWICE
1 Hawthorn +1204 Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney Swans
2 GWS +1025 Geelong, Richmond, Sydney Swans, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
3 St Kilda +951 Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney Swans
4 Western Bulldogs +719 Brisbane Lions, GWS, North Melbourne, Sydney Swans, West Coast
5 Fremantle +465 Geelong, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, Essendon
6 Geelong +425 Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle
7 Collingwood +253 Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Port Adelaide
8 Melbourne +246 Adelaide, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Collingwood, Carlton
9 Sydney Swans +49 Carlton, GWS, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
10 West Coast -55 Western Bulldogs, GWS, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Fremantle
11 Brisbane Lions -390 Gold Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide
12 Gold Coast -470 Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide
13 Adelaide -523 Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong
14 Essendon -538 Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle
15 Port Adelaide -610 Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Gold Coast, Collingwood
16 Carlton -741 Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon, Gold Coast, Sydney Swans
17 Richmond -986 GWS, St Kilda, Carlton, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions
18 North Melbourne -1024 Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold

This was done when the fixture ACTUALLY came out. Richmond clearly had the easier draw of the top 8 this season.
It can't be done retrospectively as beating the teams pushes them down the ladder! The difficulty can only be assessed at the time of creation of the draw.

Ports were expected to finish bottom 4 as well, even with this draw.
Here is an alternate analysis.



http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...-afl-draw-difficulty-and-distortion-dissected

And another



http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ednt-mean-doom-and-gloom-20161027-gscf3a.html

There aren't any absolutes.
 

Scorpus

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#44
A fixture is only easy/hard in retrospect.

For example, at the start of the season we were scheduled to play Hawthorn (a top 6 team) and Essendon (last) twice. Yet come the end of the season Hawthorn are mediocre and Essendon make the finals. Hard to predict that sort of stuff.

Sydney would have been sweating over their Hawthorn and Bulldogs double ups yet both slipped from a finals position to missing altogether
 

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#45
West Coast in 1987 and 1988 getting to play 12 home games because they played North Melbourne and the Brisbane Bears respectively twice in WA.
 

Senor Ed

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#48
Dogs last year played their first 7 games at Etihad. I don't think there's many teams over the AFL period that played 7 consecutive games at their home ground.
And you guys had an extra 9.8% in your salary cap for who know's how long.

I don't think there's many teams over the AFL period that played with an extra million / year in their salary cap.
 
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