Preview Moving on - the future begins now

GrommoT

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Interestingly with the main board 2020 ladder position thread, most posters have Crows finishing bottom 2 or even below GC. I'm not sure that will happen.
I think it's possible if we have significant injuries to our seasoned players early on. Of the players we've lost - Keath, Greenie, CEY, JJ, even Sauce - they have built up their tanks and strength to cope at senior AFL level.

If we get a few of our senior players injured, we'd be left with youth who may not yet have the tank and/or the strength to cope with a full season of AFL, and we could nose dive somewhat.
 

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Crow till I die

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I think it's possible if we have significant injuries to our seasoned players early on. Of the players we've lost - Keath, Greenie, CEY, JJ, even Sauce - they have built up their tanks and strength to cope at senior AFL level.

If we get a few of our senior players injured, we'd be left with youth who may not yet have the tank and/or the strength to cope with a full season of AFL, and we could nose dive somewhat.
If we lose O'Brien and Talia to injury (touchwood we don't), we could really get exposed next year
 

marty36

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Forget the main board best way to see a prediction is look at the betting odds of all betting agencies they dont play favs they play with money, its not personal with them


Betting odd mean diddle unless you want a bargain, they are more about where the money is being spent, If enough supporters put money on the Crows finishing higher the odd would reflect that. because the punter believes we will finish poorly the odds reflect that.
I no expect in how they work out the odds and there are a few on here that could explain it better. But I do know that the more money bet on a certain odds the odds change.
 

marty36

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Betting odd mean diddle unless you want a bargain, they are more about where the money is being spent, If enough supporters put money on the Crows finishing higher the odd would reflect that. because the punter believes we will finish poorly the odds reflect that.
I no expect in how they work out the odds and there are a few on here that could explain it better. But I do know that the more money bet on a certain odds the odds change.
Yeah youre right people loving betting and throwing their money away as they are loaded and couldnt give a toss where it goes

Is that how it works
 

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Yeah youre right people loving betting and throwing their money away as they are loaded and couldnt give a toss where it goes

Is that how it works
Yes guess so, Just imagine if you put money On Nicks being the next Crows coach early in the piece, you would be laughing today, or if you follow the best odds and placed your money on Burns,
Or if you followed the betting odds last year and put money on Brisbane finishing top 4 in 2019, the odds were good at the end of 2018,
But at the same time, you have to feel sorry to the people who trusted the Odds of the Crows being top 4 in 2019.

Betting odds are never perfect, that why its called Betting.
 

marty36

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Yes guess so, Just imagine if you put money On Nicks being the next Crows coach early in the piece, you would be laughing today, or if you follow the best odds and placed your money on Burns,
Or if you followed the betting odds last year and put money on Brisbane finishing top 4 in 2019, the odds were good at the end of 2018,
But at the same time, you have to feel sorry to the people who trusted the Odds of the Crows being top 4 in 2019.

Betting odds are never perfect, that why its called Betting.

YEs youre right although I haven't heard of too many betting companies go broke, putting those pissy little odds on a team like Richmond, why would they do such a thing
 

Mr_Moogle

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Interestingly with the main board 2020 ladder position thread, most posters have Crows finishing bottom 2 or even below GC. I'm not sure that will happen.
I'd say this actually bodes well for us. Many and us pegged as top 4 going into 2019 and look how that turned out.

I think we'll finish somewhere just outside the 8. Bottom 4 is a possibility if we get unlucky with injuries though.
 

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YEs youre right although I haven't heard of too many betting companies go broke, putting those pissy little odds on a team like Richmond, why would they do such a thing
Need to talk to one of the guys who know more about betting odds, but I believe the reason they don't go broke is they cover all the money being bet by moving and changing the odds when the risk is higher.
 

marty36

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Need to talk to one of the guys who know more about betting odds, but I believe the reason they don't go broke is they cover all the money being bet by moving and changing the odds when the risk is higher.
There you go low odds means greater chance of winning or finishing up the table higher odds means the opposite

There are unusual times this doesn't occur, but generally its a good way to follow it

Who would have thought, probably stops them from going broke with this low odds you would think
 

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There you go low odds means greater chance of winning or finishing up the table higher odds means the opposite

There are unusual times this doesn't occur, but generally its a good way to follow it

Who would have thought, probably stops them from going broke with this low odds you would think
Last time I looked lower odds mean shit when picking winners. in the AFL. same as Higher odds,
So I would not use them to determine where a team will finish in the AFL,
I wait until the Preseason to which team can put there best team on the deck, and keep them there.
Betting Odds do not show this and using them as a guide is foolish.
At this time of year, I am better off using my magic dice which has Yes, No, Maybe, Go for it, Bad Idea and Try again,
 

marty36

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Last time I looked lower odds mean shit when picking winners. in the AFL. same as Higher odds,
So I would not use them to determine where a team will finish in the AFL,
I wait until the Preseason to which team can put there best team on the deck, and keep them there.
Betting Odds do not show this and using them as a guide is foolish.
At this time of year, I am better off using my magic dice which has Yes, No, Maybe, Go for it, Bad Idea and Try again,
this is hilarious

low odds mean it is likely to happen

high odds mean it is likely not to happen

Its how it works mate so they don't go broke , dont shoot the messenger
 

Mutineer

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So Nicks will be selecting his own "lieutenant" according to an article just posted on Adelaide Now, reportedly looking close to home at the GWS.

Balme, Vozzo, Stone and Williams names put forward for the new Football Manager role...
 

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this is hilarious

low odds mean it is likely to happen

high odds mean it is likely not to happen

Its how it works mate so they don't go broke , dont shoot the messenger
So why isn't Burns our coach, why didn't the Crows finish in the 8, How come Brisbane finished top 4,
At this time of year the odd mean shit to me, Don't care about others, but they change so much through the year how can one take them serious in judging how a team is going to perform.
I just don't rate the betting odds at this time of year, you can.
 

marty36

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So why isn't Burns our coach, why didn't the Crows finish in the 8, How come Brisbane finished top 4,
At this time of year the odd mean shit to me, Don't care about others, but they change so much through the year how can one take them serious in judging how a team is going to perform.
I just don't rate the betting odds at this time of year, you can.

hahahahahahah likely means it will happen more often than not, but as we know it may not always happen but only very rarely

Really do i need to explain how betting odds work this is ridiculous
 

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hahahahahahah likely means it will happen more often than not, but as we know it may not always happen but only very rarely

Really do i need to explain how betting odds work this is ridiculous
Then bookmark you post let see next year.
I doubt the Crows will finish Bottom 4 no matter what the Odds from a victorian betting agency say.
While you seem to think they will,
 

fabs33

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For me the real failure of the previous coaching team was just how indecisive they were on player positions. And I think a lot had to do with trying to give games to too many older blokes, and forcing higher ceiling players to the wasteland of the AFL Half Forward Flank (Milera, Smith, Jones, Gooch, Poholke, Knight).
Milera being pushed forward to accommodate Mackay.

1571640862086.png
 

Mr_Moogle

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So Nicks will be selecting his own "lieutenant" according to an article just posted on Adelaide Now, reportedly looking close to home at the GWS.

Balme, Vozzo, Stone and Williams names put forward for the new Football Manager role...
I'd imagine we'd need a blank cheque to get Balme. I've heard nothing but good things about Vozzo & Stone. Not sure I want Williams anywhere near our club. He's always hated us.
 

arrowman

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There you go low odds means greater chance of winning or finishing up the table higher odds means the opposite

There are unusual times this doesn't occur, but generally its a good way to follow it

Who would have thought, probably stops them from going broke with this low odds you would think
Marty. Mate. You have not understood what ad victoriam was saying. The odds don't move because something is more or less likely to happen, they move with the weight of the money. Sure the bookies start out with a price that is based on their own assessment of likelihood, and sure, the Crows are going to start at shorter odds for bottom 4 than Richmond, but once the money starts coming in, the bookies will move the odds - that's how they make money, not by successfully predicting the outcome, but by adjusting their odds according to the weight of money.

Are the Crows more likely to finish bottom 4 than Richmond in 2020? Yes, yes they are. And that is where the market will be framed to start with.

Now - if lots and lots of people grab those odds and bet on the Crows to finish bottom 4 - guess what? The bookies will shorten the odds. That is not an indicator that the event is more likely to happen, it is the bookies protecting themselves. THAT is how they make money.
 

Mr_Moogle

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Marty. Mate. You have not understood what ad victoriam was saying. The odds don't move because something is more or less likely to happen, they move with the weight of the money. Sure the bookies start out with a price that is based on their own assessment of likelihood, and sure, the Crows are going to start at shorter odds for bottom 4 than Richmond, but once the money starts coming in, the bookies will move the odds - that's how they make money, not by successfully predicting the outcome, but by adjusting their odds according to the weight of money.

Are the Crows more likely to finish bottom 4 than Richmond in 2020? Yes, yes they are. And that is where the market will be framed to start with.

Now - if lots and lots of people grab those odds and bet on the Crows to finish bottom 4 - guess what? The bookies will shorten the odds. That is not an indicator that the event is more likely to happen, it is the bookies protecting themselves. THAT is how they make money.
Thanks for the explanation for us non-gamblers. Now I know why my tipping is bad.
 
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