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dogs105 said:
The thing is Michaels, whoever you protected the previous night didn't die. So guess what - the baddies knew.

If you could have protected EJW and didn't, you cost a seer, as the baddies knew.

If both evil groups targeted ejw 2 nights ago, they would both have known he wasn't protected last night. Only one went for the 'umprotected' seer last night, so your story is full of holes. Who have you protected?



It's becoming very likely that Michaels has been converted, or was never a doctor.

Anyway, let's get on with lynching RodneyDangerfield
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sigh..

the night where both evils didnt get a kill i protected myself.

so logically to them they would be able to kill me the following night correct? (which was last night)

so the ground work was laid for them to assume that the protection had to go the way of EJW last night because they tried and failed to kill me the night before.

so the baddies didnt know at all, the ground work was fine, they just got lucky at taking a punt on EJW cause they had to.

so there is no hole in my plan at all, they just got very very lucky that they took a punt and killing EJW. and the only person who really needed to take that punt was tgrs because he was the seer target for the night.

you seem awfully frustrated by this?
 
Nakia said:
That's another thing, do we know for sure there are two doctors. Michaels could have simply claimed the role knowing he can't die at night.

The seer not being protected is strange.
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we are playing with role set 2, so yes we do know there is 2 doctors.
 
dogs105 said:
Very strange. You can't bluff people who knew what you did the night before
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what on earth are you talking about?

2 evil factions knew i was protected on the night they both (i assume) tried to kill me.

so then logically they would both assume the protection the next night has to go to someone else, hence why it was a bluff.
 

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Michaels said:
sigh..

the night where both evils didnt get a kill i protected myself.

so logically to them they would be able to kill me the following night correct? (which was last night)

so the ground work was laid for them to assume that the protection had to go the way of EJW last night because they tried and failed to kill me the night before.

so the baddies didnt know at all, the ground work was fine, they just got lucky at taking a punt on EJW cause they had to.

so there is no hole in my plan at all, they just got very very lucky that they took a punt and killing EJW. and the only person who really needed to take that punt was tgrs because he was the seer target for the night.

you seem awfully frustrated by this?
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Yes, it is frustrating when the seer dies unnecessarily. Why not try to bluff tomorrow? The only way they'd know then was if they attacked him and failed (succeeded). If they assumed he was protected and didn't attack last night, even if he was protected, they wouldn't knoe and you could bluff then.
 
Nakia said:
When somebody is keen to commence the lynch vote, alarm bells generally ring for me. And with such a flimsy reasoning that appears to have been strategically planned.

I'll play it by ear for now but you've just put yourself in the front of my queue. Remember Dapper himself was sure on BRAB. BRAB fairly easy to read IMO.
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Admittedly i wasn't expecting the converted doctor vibes to be coming out of michaels today. Stuffed my logic train right up.

I'll withdraw my vote for now SM, and i got a good chuckle out of the whole strategically planned comment.
 
Michaels said:
what on earth are you talking about?

2 evil factions knew i was protected on the night they both (i assume) tried to kill me.

so then logically they would both assume the protection the next night has to go to someone else, hence why it was a bluff.
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Who did you protect?

Seeing i'm struggling to fathom how you aren't converted right now.
 

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Michaels said:
you're just going to have to trust me.
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Yeah no. Right now with a dead seer and vig last night trust is not something i have right now.
 
Michaels said:
what on earth are you talking about?

2 evil factions knew i was protected on the night they both (i assume) tried to kill me.

so then logically they would both assume the protection the next night has to go to someone else, hence why it was a bluff.
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That doesn't even make sense. If they knew you had protected yourself N3, you would have died last night.

The fact you're alive indicates they didn't know.
 
I think we should be going tgrs today, and dogs is looking a bit odd with his exchange with Michaels. But it looks like the RodneyDangerfield bandwagon has already left the station so I'm going to jump on it, because unless something changes he isn't seeing the day out anyway.
 
NaturalDisaster said:
interesting

I could be way off the mark.

but why Elton?

Elton said he was about to seer tgrs.. You would think they would have targeted the doctor first in case he was protecting him?

Makes me believe tgrs is last maf and killed him to keep him quiet?

though we don't know if he actually planned to seer tgrs or just said he was.
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It's a common evil tactic to frame others which may have been the case for tgrs here. It doesn't put him in the clear obviously but it doesn't necessarily mean he is the last mafia.
 

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Tgrs or burningdwarf will probably be on the chopping block tomorrow. Especially if Rodney turns out to be a villager after all. There a handful more to look at.
 
roo2macca said:
It's a common evil tactic to frame others which may have been the case for tgrs here. It doesn't put him in the clear obviously but it doesn't necessarily mean he is the last mafia.
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i get what you're saying about the being framed thing, but for all intents and purposes, evil assumed EJW was being blocked last night, so i doubt an evil faction would take a risk like that to frame someone on the chance it didnt go through.

would be most likley the actual faction who was being seered decided to take the punt to knock him off in hope, i reckon.
 
So here is my read on the game from yesterday. So let's go the opposite.

Blacky, BRAB and Noobzor are all playing very different games and going under the radar. One of them is evil. - the only thing I got right and it stood out like dogs balls. Blacky and noobz are probably villagers.

Nakia is a little less aggressive than he usually is. Possibly evil. Perhaps converted as he was quieter day one. - still not sure. But based on my thoughts then, going to say good now.

Morgs and yourself are quite quick to blame the flogs for everything going wrong for the village. Classic evil tell. Could just be bored villager. - wrong and ****ing wrong. Morgs is good.

Mooch has admitted he shouldn't even be playing. Converted? - pointless speculation here.

Paddles is playing a much different game to last time around. Good. - ha. Wrong again!

Rodney is quiet one minute and walks if text the next. Hard to read. - classic fence sitting. Leaning towards Evil. So probably good. ;)

Joelsyt is super quiet. Not sure what's going on there. Tgrs likewise. The two are verging on inactive. Not sure. leaning towards evil for both - so probably good ;)

Haro, Matty and a handful of others are barely posting at all. It's interesting that nobody has been modkilled for missing two votes. Strategy? Or just dumb luck? - my gut feel was leaning towards evil for these two. I still think I'm right. Will be shocked if they are both villagers.

Just updating this based on knowledge we now we have.

1 HaroLad - villager/evil
3 Mooch - flog
5 Noobz0r - villager/evil
6 Roo2Macca - evil
7 Melter - flog
9 NaturalDisaster - evil
11 RodneyDangerfield - evil
12 Blacky - villager
14 _MKMatty - villager/evil
17 Golumless - villager
20 MorganAshlee - villager
21 Joelsyt - evil
22 Tgrs - evil
23 Nakia - villager
29 Dogs105 - villager/evil
30 Spookism - villager/evil
31 Michaels - doctor
32 BurningDwarf - villager

The five I have marked as evil I am very suss on. Almost to the point where I don't believe they are anything but highlighted.
These are the next five people I feel we should be looking at lynching.

The five I have marked as villager/evil I am suss on. Worth a look if any of the above five turn out to be innocent.

The rest that are bolded with roles are locksfor those roles. I wouldn't even consider looking at these people until all of the above are proven innocent.

I'm not taking converted into account at this point either. We'll get to them.

As I've stated all game my read on this game has been mainly terrible. So feel free to go the opposite of everything I say.
 
Michaels said:
i get what you're saying about the being framed thing, but for all intents and purposes, evil assumed EJW was being blocked last night, so i doubt an evil faction would take a risk like that to frame someone on the chance it didnt go through.

would be most likley the actual faction who was being seered decided to take the punt to knock him off in hope, i reckon.
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If he is, he's made things pretty obvious but I'm likely over analyzing things and it's an if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck situation.

Either way, RodneyDangerfield being lynched today will tell us a lot. If he's alpha, then the dwarf is in the clear but it would put the spotlight on a few others such as mkmatty and spook. If he's the last mafia or head vamp then that's one faction gone right there. If he is a convert then MKMatty will firm as head vamp IMO. His late vote for BRAB yesterday could've been to save Rodney. If he's just a villager them it won't look good for the dwarf.
 
roo2macca said:
If he is, he's made things pretty obvious but I'm likely over analyzing things and it's an if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck situation.

Either way, RodneyDangerfield being lynched today will tell us a lot. If he's alpha, then the dwarf is in the clear but it would put the spotlight on a few others such as mkmatty and spook. If he's the last mafia or head vamp then that's one faction gone right there. If he is a convert then MKMatty will firm as head vamp IMO. His late vote for BRAB yesterday could've been to save Rodney. If he's just a villager them it won't look good for the dwarf.
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Yeah agree with all of that.

a few other experienced players still around and still laying very very low
 

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