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Melter said:
They have two currrntly. There are 11 left
Incorrect lynch = 10 left
They recruit (3)!and kill = 9 left

Tomorrow - incorrect lynch = 8 left

They recruit tomorrow (4) and we have 4

Vamps win.
Right?

That means if the next two lynches are vanilla villagers vamps will win.
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great to see my math is working well for me on a friday morning..

how do you know they have 2 so far though?
 
because they would have recruited last night
 
Melter said:
because they would have recruited last night
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they can recruit every night.

so in theory:

we lynched rodney, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4
we lynched dwarf, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4
we lynched nakia, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4

the only way that doesnt work is they happened to try and recruit the people i protected.

so we probably have to assume they still have 4

so yeah, we have 2 lynches to nail it. FML
 

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Michaels said:
they can recruit every night.

so in theory:

we lynched rodney, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4
we lynched dwarf, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4
we lynched nakia, they re recruit that night keeping it at 4

the only way that doesnt work is they happened to try and recruit the people i protected.

so we probably have to assume they still have 4

so yeah, we have 2 lynches to nail it. FML
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Good point. But yeah. We're on eleven. We need to strike at least a converted in the next two lynches.
 
Melter said:
Good point. But yeah. We're on eleven. We need to strike at least a converted in the next two lynches.
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If they're at 4, converted or not makes no difference - they just replace them. Need to hit alpha before we get to 8 left
 
Michaels said:
we don't know for sure, but we probably have to assume they did as the worst case scenario, to make up for losing nakia.
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Yep, so they probs have 4. If we hit a convert, they'll still have 4 the next day with another recruit (unless you do some clever protecting). Another thing to consider is that 4 out of 11 are already on the vamps side. They won't want their boss to be hit and end the game. How many have been willing to vote for joelsyt?
 
dogs105 said:
Yep, so they probs have 4. If we hit a convert, they'll still have 4 the next day with another recruit (unless you do some clever protecting). Another thing to consider is that 4 out of 11 are already on the vamps side. They won't want their boss to be hit and end the game. How many have been willing to vote for joelsyt?
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you were willing, noobz was willing, melter was willing (flog), morgan was willing.

blacky voted noobz
 
based on what we know of the type of player that has been recruited, they have gone for experienced, good players.

so at a stab id say blacky, dogs, noobz, tgrs are at the top of the list of being converted or possibly being the head.

the more i think about it the more i think you are heavily involved somehow dogs105
 

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Michaels said:
based on what we know of the type of player that has been recruited, they have gone for experienced, good players.

so at a stab id say blacky, dogs, noobz, tgrs are at the top of the list of being converted or possibly being the head.

the more i think about it the more i think you are heavily involved somehow dogs105
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Yeah, I'm not, but what can you do?

If my death helps the village, that's good. Need others to vote and see what they're thinking.

_MKMatty
joelsyt roo2macca Blacky tgrs NaturalDisaster
 
village, with a 7 vote majority we have to keep moving the goal posts until we see a different trend.

a few were quick to jump onto Joelsyt, already at 5 votes so 2 off the majority of 7 villagers with a few who are a bit more inactive to go.

village lets shift the vote to dogs and see what happens.
 
Michaels said:
village, with a 7 vote majority we have to keep moving the goal posts until we see a different trend.

a few were quick to jump onto Joelsyt, already at 5 votes so 2 off the majority of 7 villagers with a few who are a bit more inactive to go.

village lets shift the vote to dogs and see what happens.
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Any reason other than to see who swings?
 
Mooch said:
Any reason other than to see who swings?
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thats the main reason, and because i feel like dogs is somehow involved in this being a good experienced player. his profile fits the kind of players who were recruited, so he could be the vamp recruiting similar players to himself or been recruited.

we literally have no other info to go off, whoever the head vamp is has blended in very well IMO. we only get 2 shots at this.

so please change to dogs to help out.
 

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Michaels said:
thats the main reason, and because i feel like dogs is somehow involved in this being a good experienced player. his profile fits the kind of players who were recruited, so he could be the vamp recruiting similar players to himself or been recruited.

we literally have no other info to go off, whoever the head vamp is has blended in very well IMO. we only get 2 shots at this.

so please change to dogs to help out.
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I won't change to dogs, as I have a lecture in 10 minutes and won't be able to change back. If everyone is changing away from joelsyt, I will land on my favourite for head vamp, tgrs.

Good luck village.
 
Michaels said:
thats the main reason, and because i feel like dogs is somehow involved in this being a good experienced player. his profile fits the kind of players who were recruited, so he could be the vamp recruiting similar players to himself or been recruited.

we literally have no other info to go off, whoever the head vamp is has blended in very well IMO. we only get 2 shots at this.

so please change to dogs to help out.
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Similar to my thoughts on Joelsy to be honest but happy to flip on to dogs as he definitely fits the profile as you say.

SM
 
Nakia's comment about the head vamp being a she piqued my interest. Either he said it to throw a villager under the bus or that it was a reverse psychology tactic and that the head vamp is indeed female. If so, it's likely to be joelsy. If not, probably dogs.
 
This phase is still going? I actually forgot about the game. Sorry SM.

I'm assuming I'm supposed to be voting dogs105

You better not have been converted Michaels!
 
roo2macca said:
Nakia's comment about the head vamp being a she piqued my interest. Either he said it to throw a villager under the bus or that it was a reverse psychology tactic and that the head vamp is indeed female. If so, it's likely to be joelsy. If not, probably dogs.
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that comment caught my interest too.

it was put there on purpose, no doubt about it. but which way he is trying to steer is us the million dollar question..

put there because there is no way he would throw the head vamp under the bus like that so we assusme its not a female.

or put there because he knew we would assume the above and it is actually a female..
 

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