My Corona! (Personal eyewitness accounts)

[John Who]

Due to our lockdown, will normal flu season be curtailed or does it live in the air regardless of the lack of humans?

Good question! I suspect due to less human interactions (with social distancing/lockdown) any respiratory bugs, including the flu, would be reduced in their spread level. However, I also suspect more people this year will be jumping all over this year's flu vaccination, which hopefully will also reduce the numbers of flu incidence this year.

So if indeed there are reduced numbers of the typical flu this year, it will be hard to conclude which had the better effect - lockdown/distancing or vaccination?

 

[John Who]

you are absolutely right we need to be clear with the numbers and use reputable articles. The asymptomatic piece is complicated i will reference several articles below. A couple of factors to consider, who is being tested and when they are being tested. my comment came from this quote "Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said [Iceland’s chief epidemiologist Thorolfur] Guðnason. (there is a difference between non-symptomatic and asymptomatic but we will just leave that for now) what has happened in Iceland is they have tested every one and they are finding lots of people are non-symptomatic, this has also been seen in sone italian villages, yet the diamond princess only saw 16% of people be asymptomatic. the International Journal of Infectious Diseases estimates that 30% of people are asymptomatic. the numbers are in flux and I completely agree with you, we should not be causing undue fear, what we need is good information. What i want people to understand is social distancing, isolation, good hand washing, only going out when it is needed and making smart decisions will help save peoples lives. personally i have a couple of family members in Adelaide that would most likely not come through this if they got infected. I really hope every stays safe and that they are not unduly afraid.

Hidden coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks

Scientists are rushing to estimate the proportion of people with mild or no symptoms who could be spreading the pathogen.

www.nature.com

Study: Yes, half of coronavirus carriers show zero symptoms

It's the study everyone will be talking about this week.

futurism.com

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30139-9/pdf

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/me...4302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1

Eurosurveillance | Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020

On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to...

eurosurveillance.org

I genuinely believe the information regarding "asymptomatic cases" are misleading. The definition itself means "a person who is infected who doesn't have any symptoms". From my personal and working experience, I can give some reasons why I think it can be misleading:

- an "asymptomatic case" may have not developed any symptoms at the time of testing, but they may still develop symptoms afterwards. If this was the case, then they actually belong to the group of "symptomatic case".
- VERY RARELY would anyone have an infection with absolutely zero symptoms. Often from my working experience, there is a subtle degree of lethargy/weakness/ache which people may attribute it as "I think I overworked yesterday". Or there maybe very minor "tickle in the throat", or "feeling a bit lazy today". Very subtle signs where majority of us don't think to count them as actual symptoms, where in fact they are symptoms but in very minor/negligible form.

 

[GROTTO]

So Im driving through the city this arvo, Whitmore Square was packed with Indigenous people having a meal. By packed I mean there was about 2 groups of what looked like about 20 in each group.

Police also routinely drive this area.

 

[Canuck_Crow]

I genuinely believe the information regarding "asymptomatic cases" are misleading. The definition itself means "a person who is infected who doesn't have any symptoms". From my personal and working experience, I can give some reasons why I think it can be misleading:

- an "asymptomatic case" may have not developed any symptoms at the time of testing, but they may still develop symptoms afterwards. If this was the case, then they actually belong to the group of "symptomatic case".
- VERY RARELY would anyone have an infection with absolutely zero symptoms. Often from my working experience, there is a subtle degree of lethargy/weakness/ache which people may attribute it as "I think I overworked yesterday". Or there maybe very minor "tickle in the throat", or "feeling a bit lazy today". Very subtle signs where majority of us don't think to count them as actual symptoms, where in fact they are symptoms but in very minor/negligible form.

i dont believe the asymptomatic information is misleading. i think it paints a more complex picture than you have to be sick to give it to people. the problem with this virus is that it can be misdiagnosed really easily, unless there is a swab covid symptoms can look very similar to other things, like a common cold, hay fever etc. the virus impacts people on a spectrum. so this is the distinction between asymptomatic and non-symptomatic or mild like symptoms. you are right it is impossible to say if some one didnt experience symptoms after, or if they were just very mild but it is fair to say the vast majority of infected people have mild symptoms and many people may not realize they are infected. in the Nature article i referenced also states the viral load of people with little to no symptoms is just as high as people with strong symptoms. "A study of more than 700 infected children in China found that 56% had mild or no symptoms."

I dont want to get lost in the minutiae of this and i would be happy to put a foot note to my comment. stating 50% + of people will show mild to no symptoms and their viral load is just as high as other individuals. the overarching point I wanted to make was how important it is for people to stay home even if they are feeling good, coupled with the numbers we had been seeing not being a true reflection on the actual cases. I stand by my comment that the true number of cases is 4 to 5 times higher than is reported at that time, but every day more and more tests are being done, but we are still only testing people with symptoms.

thanks for the good discussion.

one last article for you.

How the Coronavirus Became an American Catastrophe

The death and economic damage sweeping the United States could have been avoided—if only we had started testing for the virus sooner.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Apsaalooke]

i dont believe the asymptomatic information is misleading. i think it paints a more complex picture than you have to be sick to give it to people. the problem with this virus is that it can be misdiagnosed really easily, unless there is a swab covid symptoms can look very similar to other things, like a common cold, hay fever etc. the virus impacts people on a spectrum. so this is the distinction between asymptomatic and non-symptomatic or mild like symptoms. you are right it is impossible to say if some one didnt experience symptoms after, or if they were just very mild but it is fair to say the vast majority of infected people have mild symptoms and many people may not realize they are infected. in the Nature article i referenced also states the viral load of people with little to no symptoms is just as high as people with strong symptoms. "A study of more than 700 infected children in China found that 56% had mild or no symptoms."

I dont want to get lost in the minutiae of this and i would be happy to put a foot note to my comment. stating 50% + of people will show mild to no symptoms and their viral load is just as high as other individuals. the overarching point I wanted to make was how important it is for people to stay home even if they are feeling good, coupled with the numbers we had been seeing not being a true reflection on the actual cases. I stand by my comment that the true number of cases is 4 to 5 times higher than is reported at that time, but every day more and more tests are being done, but we are still only testing people with symptoms.

thanks for the good discussion.

one last article for you.

How the Coronavirus Became an American Catastrophe

The death and economic damage sweeping the United States could have been avoided—if only we had started testing for the virus sooner.

www.theatlantic.com

It will be very interesting and useful to know if there are a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases. These people will probably be immune, perhaps permanently, having effectively been self vaccinated. If there are enough of them and they can be identified by confirming their immunity by an antibody blood test (the same as we routinely test for immunity for disease such as rubella in pregnant women) and can play and be merry with impunity.

More importantly they could work safely and help restore services and the economy.
Its been suggested they be issued an official Covid-19 Immunity Licence which they could presumably hang around their neck as they move freely amongst us signing autographs and posing for selfies.

 

[Canuck_Crow]

It will be very interesting and useful to know if there are a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases. These people will probably be immune, perhaps permanently, having effectively been self vaccinated. If there are enough of them and they can be identified by confirming their immunity by an antibody blood test (the same as we routinely test for immunity for disease such as rubella in pregnant women) and can play and be merry with impunity.

More importantly they could work safely and help restore services and the economy.
Its been suggested they be issued an official Covid-19 Immunity Licence which they could presumably hang around their neck as they move freely amongst us signing autographs and posing for selfies.

my understanding is that you dont become immune once you have had it you just have antibodies to fight a secondary infection, but you can catch it again.

"According to Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, those who have been infected with Covid-19 develop a protective antibody - but it isn’t clear how long the protection lasts.
"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li told USAToday. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."

Can you get coronavirus twice or does it cause immunity?

Having coronavirus may lead to development of 'at least short-term immunity'

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Vhaluus]

I genuinely believe the information regarding "asymptomatic cases" are misleading. The definition itself means "a person who is infected who doesn't have any symptoms". From my personal and working experience, I can give some reasons why I think it can be misleading:

- an "asymptomatic case" may have not developed any symptoms at the time of testing, but they may still develop symptoms afterwards. If this was the case, then they actually belong to the group of "symptomatic case".
- VERY RARELY would anyone have an infection with absolutely zero symptoms. Often from my working experience, there is a subtle degree of lethargy/weakness/ache which people may attribute it as "I think I overworked yesterday". Or there maybe very minor "tickle in the throat", or "feeling a bit lazy today". Very subtle signs where majority of us don't think to count them as actual symptoms, where in fact they are symptoms but in very minor/negligible form.

There is 0% chance you're actually a medical professional, or at least I damn well hope there is a 0% chance given your lack of understanding here.

 

[Vhaluus]

my understanding is that you dont become immune once you have had it you just have antibodies to fight a secondary infection, but you can catch it again.

that's... that's what immunity is.

 

[Canuck_Crow]

that's... that's what immunity is.

you have immunity for a period of time following a covid infection it doesn't mean once you have it you are immune for life. it works very differently than say smallpox. I was just trying to say that Apsaalooke's idea of getting previously infected people to work in vital areas wouldn't be that successful and lots of people get reinfected.

i think i have reached my post limit for this thread, so i will go get a breather on the bench.

 

[John Who]

There is 0% chance you're actually a medical professional, or at least I damn well hope there is a 0% chance given your lack of understanding here.

Is there a chance you can contribute to the thread meaningfully for a change?

 

[skam85]

There is 0% chance you're actually a medical professional, or at least I damn well hope there is a 0% chance given your lack of understanding here.

I feel so enlightened now I know the definition of asymptomatic.

Who knew adding an a in front of a word changes everything.

Thanks a bunch, John Who; aGP!

 

[John Who]

I feel so enlightened now I know the definition of asymptomatic.

Who knew adding an a in front of a word changes everything.

Thanks a bunch, John Who; aGP!

Can you please stop being an ass? This is meant to be a serious thread for serious discussions. If more people participate positively, this may become a very useful thread that can help improve our understanding of the situation in real time.

 

[John Who]

you have immunity for a period of time following a covid infection it doesn't mean once you have it you are immune for life. it works very differently than say smallpox. I was just trying to say that Apsaalooke's idea of getting previously infected people to work in vital areas wouldn't be that successful and lots of people get reinfected.

i think i have reached my post limit for this thread, so i will go get a breather on the bench.

What you're saying is "partial immunity", where it can result in a re-infection.

Have a breather, but don't worry about the downer-posters. If you have any further observations, please feel free to add to the topic.

 

[mistylake]

you have immunity for a period of time following a covid infection it doesn't mean once you have it you are immune for life. it works very differently than say smallpox. I was just trying to say that Apsaalooke's idea of getting previously infected people to work in vital areas wouldn't be that successful and lots of people get reinfected.

i think i have reached my post limit for this thread, so i will go get a breather on the bench.

Well considering there’s only 7 corona viruses and apparently they can cause the common cold clearly you don’t get immunity because everyone keeps getting a cold again.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Well considering there’s only 7 corona viruses and apparently they can cause the common cold clearly you don’t get immunity because everyone keeps getting a cold again.

There have also been some deadly coronaviruses though. The original SARS and MERS are also coronaviruses, and there seems to be some evidence of longer term immunity after contracting these 2 in at least some people. Lets hope this applies to Covid-19, also known as SARS-COV-2.

The jury is very much out on this - lots of speculation but no-one knows for sure. If Covid-19 infection doesn't cause immunity, that must raise some doubt that any new vaccine will do so as our immune system responds similarly to either.

 

[Vhaluus]

Can you please stop being an ass? This is meant to be a serious thread for serious discussions. If more people participate positively, this may become a very useful thread that can help improve our understanding of the situation in real time.

anything posted here is the very definition of anecdotal evidence, it's not going to help anyone understand anything.

It's far more likely threads like this are going to sow the seeds of confusion and disinformation.

"I put a cherry up my butt every day and I don't have Covid, therefore asscherries make you immune to the china flu!"

 

[John Who]

It's far more likely threads like this are going to sow the seeds of confusion and disinformation.

"I put a cherry up my butt every day and I don't have Covid, therefore asscherries make you immune to the china flu!"

I guess you didn’t bother to read the OP? Your last paragraph has nothing to do with this thread, which is to focus on direct observations on positive cases. If anything, you’re the only one here who’s whinging over this thread. Don’t like it, don’t participate, pretty simple!

 

[skam85]

Can you please stop being an ass? This is meant to be a serious thread for serious discussions. If more people participate positively, this may become a very useful thread that can help improve our understanding of the situation in real time.

Bravo to you for juggling your unprecedented busy schedule during a global pandemic to share with us your unrivalled knowledge of the medical industry, you are the hero we never knew we needed.

 

[Vhaluus]

Bravo to you for juggling your unprecedented busy schedule during a global pandemic to share with us your unrivalled knowledge of the medical industry, you are the hero we never knew we needed.

If he is a GP (IF), he's probably like a lot around here.. just refusing to see patients with any flu like symptoms at all.

It's really dissapointing because:
1)its neglecting their professional duty
2)it's promoting unjustified hysteria
3)it's putting additional load on hospitals at the worst possible time

 

[Vhaluus]

I guess you didn’t bother to read the OP? Your last paragraph has nothing to do with this thread, which is to focus on direct observations on positive cases. If anything, you’re the only one here who’s whinging over this thread. Don’t like it, don’t participate, pretty simple!

Ok I'm sorry

"I had Covid19, put a cherry in my butt and now I don't have Covid, asscherries CURE the china flu!"

 

[GROTTO]

If he is a GP (IF), he's probably like a lot around here.. just refusing to see patients with any flu like symptoms at all.

It's really dissapointing because:
1)its neglecting their professional duty
2)it's promoting unjustified hysteria
3)it's putting additional load on hospitals at the worst possible time

Not really.

They are able to see more people if they are well, not if they are sick.

There is places to go if you believe you have the coronavirus that a GP can get you tested at if the symptoms are such to justify it. If it is the everyday "garden-variety" flu then the normal procedures apply to get plenty of rest, keep your fluids up and take panadol for any pain. You dont need to see the doctor for that, thats a wasted expense for everyone.

Why would you in this pandemic time, would you want your GP to be potentially knocked out with the CV or flu for that matter and not to mention potentially spreading it to other patients.

 

[Vhaluus]

Not really.

They are able to see more people if they are well, not if they are sick.

There is places to go if you believe you have the coronavirus that a GP can get you tested at if the symptoms are such to justify it. If it is the everyday "garden-variety" flu then the normal procedures apply to get plenty of rest, keep your fluids up and take panadol for any pain. You dont need to see the doctor for that, thats a wasted expense for everyone.

Why would you in this pandemic time, would you want your GP to be potentially knocked out with the CV or flu for that matter and not to mention potentially spreading it to other patients.

Yeah so it means we have people rocking up to the ED to get a doctors certificate for a garden variety flu.

The risk to the doctor is absolutely minimal if they're following proper precautions.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah so it means we have people rocking up to the ED to get a doctors certificate for a garden variety flu.

The risk to the doctor is absolutely minimal if they're following proper precautions.

People are not going to rock up to the ED to get a certificate, they can see a doctor via telephone or video that can issue one to them if thats all they need. No doctor is going to not give you a certificate during these times. If a patient has a regular GP, they WILL issue a medical certificate if you speak to them over the phone or video rather than you come in. You can take that to the bank. I know and I know enough why.

The risk to the doctor is based on a variety of probabilities and is not minimal, to expect a doctor to be 100% compliant with medical procedures in handling flu/CV cases is not possible. Mistakes/accidents will happen, it will just depend then on how unlucky the doctor is to contract the CV from these situations.

Would you want your father/mother/sister/brother/relative/partner to be in this situation. No you wouldnt. I respect why some GP's are doing what they are doing.

Not to mention there is triage approach to treating patients in the hospitals. I can assure you a patient with a low grade fever is low on the list of priorities to be seen in a hospital. It could be anything up to several hours in busy times.

If the GP feels the patient has potentially CV they will recommend them to the CV clinic. If its flu they will tell them to follow normal protocols. A GP cannot diagnose CV in a patient at their surgery. Only laboratory tests can confirm this.

I applaud GP's for not seeing patients with flu like symptoms in person.

 

[Vhaluus]

People are not going to rock up to the ED to get a certificate, they can see a doctor via telephone or video that can issue one to them if thats all they need. No doctor is going to not give you a certificate during these times. If a patient has a regular GP, they WILL issue a medical certificate if you speak to them over the phone or video rather than you come in. You can take that to the bank. I know and I know enough why.

The risk to the doctor is based on a variety of probabilities and is not minimal, to expect a doctor to be 100% compliant with medical procedures in handling flu/CV cases is not possible. Mistakes/accidents will happen, it will just depend then on how unlucky the doctor is to contract the CV from these situations.

Would you want your father/mother/sister/brother/relative/partner to be in this situation. No you wouldnt. I respect why some GP's are doing what they are doing.

Not to mention there is triage approach to treating patients in the hospitals. I can assure you a patient with a low grade fever is low on the list of priorities to be seen in a hospital. It could be anything up to several hours in busy times.

If the GP feels the patient has potentially CV they will recommend them to the CV clinic. If its flu they will tell them to follow normal protocols. A GP cannot diagnose CV in a patient at their surgery. Only laboratory tests can confirm this.

I applaud GP's for not seeing patients with flu like symptoms in person.

People ARE rocking up to the ED to get a doctors certificate because their GP won't see them. I work in a hospital

 

[jenny61_99]

Bravo to you for juggling your unprecedented busy schedule during a global pandemic to share with us your unrivalled knowledge of the medical industry, you are the hero we never knew we needed.

Fair dinkum... just leave it. You don't need to be in here unless you have something of value to add.