Umm... it's absolutely 100% right and you couldn't possibly argue against it.
The probability of our guy still being there at 14 goes up depending on how lowly he is rated by other clubs.
No you are wrong again, this is the quote I said that you had completely wrong:
The worse the player we target the better the chance of that happening
You are so full of it it's getting sad.
Do you think that the players that the teams before us have lined up for their first round picks,
might be different than the player we want at 14? Of course you do.
So is it possible that the player we rate the BEST could be available at pick 14? Of course he could.
So now do you see why the idea that you put forward about "the worse the player / the better the chance" is complete rubbish?
And now to this beauty ...
We're back on this? If the draft pick is just a number and the draft order doesn't work out in order of quality, then going from 47 to 35 is no biggie yeah?
That could be true, precisely ... you are catching on. BUT if it isn't true - if going from 47 to 35 is a biggie for the AFC, AND going from 10 to 14 is not a biggie for the AFC- then you could possibly concede that it would be an intelligent thing for the AFC to make the swap of picks. Right?
Or do you think that our recruiters just did it on whim?
Why am I being so negative about the draft picks? Why am I being so positive about the trades? Maybe I think the trades were good, the pick downgrade bad. Shock horror.
I think the reason you are being how you are being has everything to do with trying to predict something so you can come back later and say .... SEE!! I told you it was dumb, if we had kept pick 10 we could have got XXXXX and he is now a Brownlow medalist, AND the guy we got a 35 was a waste of list space.
The bit you aren't getting is that the guy we will pick up at pick 14 - will be the exact same guy that we would have got at 10.
The bit you aren't getting is that you know nothing, you are guessing stuff that makes no sense. You are assuming that you, with all your inside knowledge about the draft and years of work scouting the players available - know more than the professionals hired to do exactly that (in real life), that have a proven track record in doing exactly that.