Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

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Rorys458

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How can you disagree?

This wasn't a 3 way trade between 2 clubs. We made two different trades completely separate from each other.

We made the trade with Hawthorn before we made the trade with Geelong.

There was time in between the trades to change our mind and say no to Geelong.

Our trade with Geelong (from their perspective) was not contingent on our trade with Hawthorn.

There was absolutely nothing stopping us from doing the Hawthorn trade and keeping 10 and 47.
They were contingent to the extent that the second wouldn't have happend wihtout the first fom OUR perspective as for whatever reason we thouguht getting higher picks in the second round was better than having 10 over 14. Or compouding that, getting Lowden and Chaney and 14 was better than 10 without Lowden and Chaney. They were linked in our minds.
 

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Bicks

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Doesn't that make trading 10 to 14 a mistake? Geelong's thinking might be that teams are so varied this year in their first round thinking that they might get another Selwood steal.

The logic people have been using is that the first round is pretty much set in concrete, everyone knows who everyone else is taking, so we'll still get our 10th ranked guy at 14.
Absolutely not, Ogilvy and co are obviously of the belief that the player/players we were targeting for our needs at #10 will still be attainable at #14.

As for your assertion the player/players we are targeting is necessarily OUR 10th ranked guy is utter bullshit, he may well be our 1st ranked guy for all we know, I would almost certainly guarantee he would not be our club's 10th ranked player/players.

Different clubs, different list needs, different club ratings!!
 

AFC979810

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They were contingent to the extent that the second wouldn't have happend wihtout the first fom OUR perspective as for whatever reason we thouguht getting higher picks in the second round was better than having 10 over 14. Or compouding that, getting Lowden and Chaney and 14 was better than 10 without Lowden and Chaney. They were linked in our minds.
Absolutely they were linked in our minds.

But - as DABM suggested we had the choice after making the trade for Lowden and Cheney to pull the pin on the Geelong trade if that was our choice.

Therefore - the discussion about which is better (10 & 47 or 14 & 35) can be discussed completely on its on merits because we had the choice of which we thought was better for our club.
 

dogs105

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Absolutely not, Ogilvy and co are obviously of the belief that the player/players we were targeting for our needs at #10 will still be attainable at #14.

As for your assertion the player/players we are targeting is necessarily OUR 10th ranked guy is utter bullshit, he may well be our 1st ranked guy for all we know, I would almost certainly guarantee he would not be our club's 10th ranked player/players.

Different clubs, different list needs, different club ratings!!
Yeah, FFS we always manage to draft 5 guys we had rated in our top ten ;)
 

boffo

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This wasn't a 3 way trade between 2 clubs. We made two different trades completely separate from each other.
We made the trade with Hawthorn before we made the trade with Geelong.
There was time in between the trades to change our mind and say no to Geelong.
Our trade with Geelong (from their perspective) was not contingent on our trade with Hawthorn.
There was absolutely nothing stopping us from doing the Hawthorn trade and keeping 10 and 47.

True, except Walsh wanted us to be in the second round. So we could give away our round 2 pick to Hawthorn knowing the deal with Geelong was on the table and we could get a round 2 pick straight back.

Suggest you listen again to the Noble interview on 5AA.
 

AFC979810

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True, except Walsh wanted us to be in the second round. So we could give away our round 2 pick to Hawthorn knowing the deal with Geelong was on the table and we could get a round 2 pick straight back.

Suggest you listen again to the Noble interview on 5AA.
So its ultimately Walsh's decision that 10 and 47 are worse than 14 and 35.
 

Peter J

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True, except Walsh wanted us to be in the second round. So we could give away our round 2 pick to Hawthorn knowing the deal with Geelong was on the table and we could get a round 2 pick straight back.

Suggest you listen again to the Noble interview on 5AA.
Thank you.

This is a ridiculous circular argument. I'm done with it.
 

azza77

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So its ultimately Walsh's decision that 10 and 47 are worse than 14 and 35.
Given the amount of high profile draft experts and whatnot harping on about the even-ness of this draft and the amount of prospects that are all considered relatively equal, I'm willing to back our clubs/Walsh's decisions that we made on trade day.

So many people around BF seem to be viewing it very much on a numerical basis, 10>14 therefore our trade was stupid....

As stated, we have performed well in the drafting/trading department previously and from what I'm reading from the real experts about this years draft, I am more than happy to go in with 14 and 35 rather than 10 and 47.
 

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lunacy

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I've said right from the start how brilliant it would be if the club encrypted Kid 10 in our thread, then unveiled when we end up nabbing him at 14. Credibility all round!

As it is we'll never know and Kid 14 will have the shadow of 10, 11, 12 & 14 hovering over him his whole career.
It might not just be 1 player. The recruiters could deem the players 10-14 as line ball. Therefore it was worth dropping down to get Cheney & Lowden basically for nothing.

Like Knightmare said on draft & trading board he'd trade pick 5 for 2 picks in 20s. You'd go mental if we had pick 5 and it traded away. But the draft is obviously that even coming from guys in the know. So it was worth us dropping down for spots to gain a 2nd round pick.
 

Danoz

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Re: Daniel

I'm curious to know who was the last player around his size (who had his football ability) to try and fail a AFL level??
Was interested in this too. Nowhere has an simple list of players by height that I can find. This list has a historical list from when I don't know, and below has all players currently under 180cm.

Code:
    cm     Player                     Club(s)      VFL-AFL      Gms Gls
    152    James 'Nipper' BRADFORD    Collingwood           1943 7  11
                                      North Melb            1949 9   8
    156    Charlie HARDY              Essendon     1921-25       36 21
   157.5   Ray HORWOOD                Richmond     1950-52       27 26
                                      Collingwood           1952 2   0
           Doug NICHOLLS              Fitzroy      1932-37       54  2
           William SPEAKMAN           Essendon     1927-29       16  8
    159    Tommy DOWNS                Carlton      1927-29, 31,  56 44
    160    Jamie LAWSON               Sydney       1991-92       34 20
           Clarrie HALL               Richmond     1912-22, 24  150 169
           Roland WATT                Essendon     1922-31      141 41
           Jack CARNEY                Geelong      1930-34       79  4
    163    Kevin 'Skeeter' COUGHLAN   Collingwood  1949-52       31 25
                                      Hawthorn     1953-56       59 96
           Tony LIBERATORE            F'scray-WB   1986-2002    283 95
           Danny CRAVEN               St Kilda     1989-92       33 10
    170    Stephen KENNA              Carlton      2004-current
    171    James ALLAN                Geelong      <R>
           David RODAN                Richmond     2002-current
           Phillip MATERA             West Coast   1996-current
    172    Craig CALLAGHAN            Fremantle    1995-2000     95 69
                                      St Kilda     2001-current
    173    David WIRRPUNDA            West Coast   1996-current
    174    Peter BELL                 Fremantle             1995 2   2
                                      North Melb-Ka1996-2000    123 120
                                      Fremantle    2001-current
           Jeff FARMER                Melbourne    1995-2001    118 259
                                      Fremantle    2002-current
           Shannon BYRNES             Geelong      <R>
           Chance BATEMAN             Hawthorn     2000-current
           Harry MILLER               Hawthorn     <R>
           Salim HASSAN               Port Adelaide<R>
           Andrew KRAKOUER            Richmond
    175    Shaun HART                 Brisbane     1990-current
           Hayden SKIPWWORTH          Adelaide     2001-current
           Darren HULME               Carlton      1997-current
           Byron SCHAMMER             Fremantle    2003-current
           Dylan SMITH                Kangaroos    2001-2003     11  1
                                      Fremantle             2004
           David SPRIGGS              Geelong      2000-current
           Jeremy CLAYTON             Kangaroos    2003-current
           Jared CROUCH               Sydney       1998-current
           Michael BRAUN              West Coast   1997-current
    176    Craig McRAE                Brisbane     1995-current
           James GALLAGHER            Adelaide     2001-current
           Anthony FRANCHINA          Carlton      1997-current
           Mark ALVEY                 West.B'dogs  1998-2003     45 28
                                      Essendon     2004-current
           Tim CLARKE                 Hawthorn     2001-current
           Shane HARVEY               Kangaroos    2002-current
           Paul WILLIAMS              Collingwood  1991-2000    189 223
                                      Sydney       2001-current
           Josh WILLOUGHBY            Sydney       <R>
    167    Brent Harvey               NMFC         75           14.05.78
    170    Jake Neade                 PORT         67           29.05.94
    172    Ben McGlynn                SYD          76           06.08.85
    173    Eddie Betts                ADEL         73           26.11.86
    173    Lewis Taylor               BL           77           17.02.95
    173    Paul Puopolo               HAW          76           02.12.87
    173    Jay Kennedy-Harris         MELB         68           21.03.95
    174    Dayne Zorko                BL           78           09.02.89
    174    Jarryd Blair               COLL         81           14.04.90
    174    Travis Colyer              ESS          72           24.08.91
    174    Hayden Ballantyne          FRE          78           16.07.87
    174    Devon Smith                GWS          75           20.05.93
    174    Kane Mitchell              PORT         74           01.12.89
    175    Ben Kennedy                COLL         76           03.03.94
    175    Mathew Stokes              GEEL         77           22.11.84
    175    Dion Prestia               GCFC         81           12.10.92
    175    Brandon Matera             GCFC         70           11.03.92
    175    Adam Schneider             STK          79           12.05.84
    175    Nathan Hrovat              WB           78           07.06.94
    176    Josh Green                 BL           80           24.08.92
    176    Lachie Neale               FRE          81           24.05.93
    176    Zac Bates                  GEEL         73           30.04.95
    176    Leigh Adams                NMFC         79           06.04.88
    176    Malcolm Karpany            WCE          74           01.06.95
    176    Mitch Honeychurch          WB           68           02.03.95
    177    David Ellard               CARL         80           13.03.89
    177    Leroy Jetta                ESS          75           06.07.88
    177    Orazio Fantasia            ESS          70           14.09.95
    177    Michael Walters            FRE          77           07.01.91
    177    Lincoln McCarthy           GEEL         79           22.10.93
    177    Liam Sumner                GWS          75           16.08.93
    177    Cyril Rioli                HAW          80           14.07.89
    177    Billy Hartung              HAW          75           24.01.95
    177    Jason Tutt                 WB           81           15.05.91
    178    Matthew Wright             ADEL         76           14.12.89
    178    Rory Laird                 ADEL         77           29.12.93
    178    Jamie Elliott              COLL         79           21.08.92
    178    Josh Thomas                COLL         78           01.10.91
    178    Danyle Pearce              FRE          80           07.04.86
    178    Jarrod Harbrow             GCFC         74           18.07.88
    178    Jack Viney                 MELB         82           13.04.94
    178    Jarman Impey               PORT         78           09.07.95
    178    Nathan Foley               RICH         79           08.09.85
    178    Leigh Montagna             STK          78           02.11.83
    178    Tom Curren                 STK          78           29.07.92
    178    Kieren Jack                SYD          81           28.06.87
    178    Luke Dahlhaus              WB           77           21.08.92
    179    Dylan Buckley              CARL         75           16.03.93
    179    Paul Chapman               ESS          87           05.11.81
    179    Brady Grey                 FRE          82           20.07.95
    179    Sam Mitchell               HAW          83           12.10.82
    179    Taylor Duryea              HAW          80           24.04.91
    179    Jed Anderson               HAW          79           02.02.94
    179    Dean Kent                  MELB         82           24.02.94
    179    Sam Colquhoun              PORT         75           20.12.94
    179    Anthony Miles              RICH         80           28.02.92
    179    Craig Bird                 SYD          83           21.01.89
    179    Chris Masten               WCE          78           02.05.89
    179    Jamie Bennell              WCE          76           07.06.90
 
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To give everyone some idea as to how uncommon it is for an AFL player to be under 170cm (and also to emphasise what a freak Brent Harvey is - not forgetting Libba senior either), there have only been 5 players under 170cm that have a played a game of AFL in the last 18 years (97-14). This is out of a total of 2,076 players. That equates to 0.24%.

Tony Liberatore 163cm, 283 games
Garth Taylor 166cm, 15 games
Brent Harvey 167cm, 384 games
Peter Filandia 168cm, 83 games
Ryan Neates 169cm, 1 game

This is why Caleb Daniel (at 167cm) is up against it, despite his obvious ability. Personally, I think he is a rare talent, and recruiters will overlook his height and he will find himself on a list somewhere (most likely as a rookie).
 

azza77

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ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415236630.807979.jpg


This has me seriously excited, but the rumours about wanting to be in Vic is bursting my bubble a little :(
 

boffo

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Absolutely they were linked in our minds.

But - as DABM suggested we had the choice after making the trade for Lowden and Cheney to pull the pin on the Geelong trade if that was our choice.

Therefore - the discussion about which is better (10 & 47 or 14 & 35) can be discussed completely on its on merits because we had the choice of which we thought was better for our club.
I look at it like this.

1. Before the trade period we had a pick in each round: 10, 31, 50, 68. (we can ignore rounds 5-7 as those picks remained untouched).

2. After the Hawthorn trade deal we had: 10, 43, 47, 59 + Cheney/Lowden.

3. After Geelong pick swap we have: 14, 35, 43, 59 + Cheney/Lowden.

I think your bolded bits are fair points. But also contradictory if you recognise that one of the picks we swapped with Geelong, #47, we only had because of the Cheney/Lowden trade. Yes, we could have stopped there but you argue (correctly in my view) the trade and the pick swap were linked in our minds.

So I think it makes more sense to make an overall assessment of our starting position and our final position; this is what Noble and Co would have done.

When you do that you have to hope like hell Noble and Co know what they are doing because they downgraded our picks in the first (10 to 14) and second rounds (31 to 35), upgraded our picks in the third (50 to 43) and fourth rounds 68 to 59). Plus we got Cheney and Lowden.

In Noble we trust? I still do.
 

Golumless

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I look at it like this.

1. Before the trade period we had a pick in each round: 10, 31, 50, 68. (we can ignore rounds 5-7 as those picks remained untouched).

2. After the Hawthorn trade deal we had: 10, 43, 47, 59 + Cheney/Lowden.

3. After Geelong pick swap we have: 14, 35, 43, 59 + Cheney/Lowden.

I think your bolded bits are fair points. But also contradictory if you recognise that one of the picks we swapped with Geelong, #47, we only had because of the Cheney/Lowden trade. Yes, we could have stopped there but you argue (correctly in my view) the trade and the pick swap were linked in our minds.

So I think it makes more sense to make an overall assessment of our starting position and our final position; this is what Noble and Co would have done.

When you do that you have to hope like hell Noble and Co know what they are doing because they downgraded our picks in the first (10 to 14) and second rounds (31 to 35), upgraded our picks in the third (50 to 43) and fourth rounds 68 to 59). Plus we got Cheney and Lowden.

In Noble we trust? I still do.
Pretty much that entire deal signifies we are taking 4 kids in this draft and upgrading Cameron. Be very strange to upgrade your 4th pick for it to end up being a rookie upgrade.

But for the deal, the entirety of the deal is linked and in a lot of ways it's really negated the cost of bringing in two players.

2 drops of 4 picks is pretty much nothing in the long run.
 

OutofTownCrow

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Great draft / trade related article posted in another thread I started on the main board about how to rate recruiters ...

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2012-11-06/top-of-the-list

From the article:

Having said that, all list managers must remain flexible because value can depend on a club's specific need at any particular time.

This is essential because, as former coach of the San Francisco 49ers Bill Walsh - who took drafting to another level of sophistication - used to argue, teams should not worry too much about the value given away if they need a player to fill a role. He used to say it never mattered where they were picked, it only mattered how they played.​
 

lunacy

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So its ultimately Walsh's decision that 10 and 47 are worse than 14 and 35.
Who says 10 & 47 are better than 14 & 35 in this draft? I'm glad we did the trade.
If there is good/even talent up to pick 30-40, we made sure we had 2 picks inside the top 35 compared to one (pick 10).
The gap in quality from 10-14 is minimal (Ogilvie thinks the gap between 6-17 is minimal), where as the gap in quality between 35-47 is big.
 

lunacy

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Given the amount of high profile draft experts and whatnot harping on about the even-ness of this draft and the amount of prospects that are all considered relatively equal, I'm willing to back our clubs/Walsh's decisions that we made on trade day.

So many people around BF seem to be viewing it very much on a numerical basis, 10>14 therefore our trade was stupid....

As stated, we have performed well in the drafting/trading department previously and from what I'm reading from the real experts about this years draft, I am more than happy to go in with 14 and 35 rather than 10 and 47.
Exactly. In Noble's interview on 5aa he explained that each draft is very different. He said in 2007 they never would have dropped 4 places in the first round because in their eyes the player they could get at 10 was much better than 14 (in the end it was Dangerfield 10, Grimes 14). So each draft is different. This year dropping 4 places is minimal compared to the difference in quality between 35-47. Not rocket science.
 
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