Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

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The19thMan

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Just listened to the AFL Draft Podcast and Cal Twoomey had Goddard going inside the top 10 and possibly Marchbank as well.

He had Maynard and Ellis as potential picks for us. But it really sounds as if the top 18-20 (bar the top 3) picks are pretty even.

Someone is guaranteed to slip. (Maybe more than 1 as well)
 

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Ok. So some people still seem to be getting in a tizz about downgrading from 10 to 14. Apologies if someone else has posted something similar to the following but really, statistically speaking, outside of the top 5 picks, there aren't too many guarantees when it comes to the draft. Below is some pretty basic statistical analysis of the top 30 draft picks from 2000-2013. It does seem as if putting the top 30 prospects names in a bag and randomly drawing them out wouldn't be much less successful than any targeted drafting strategy...
 

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Ok. So some people still seem to be getting in a tizz about downgrading from 10 to 14. Apologies if someone else has posted something similar to the following but really, statistically speaking, outside of the top 5 picks, there aren't too many guarantees when it comes to the draft. Below is some pretty basic statistical analysis of the top 30 draft picks from 2000-2013. It does seem as if putting the top 30 prospects names in a bag and randomly drawing them out wouldn't be much less successful than any targeted drafting strategy...
Also, I was intrigued as to whether or not swapping pick 47 to 35 was worth it and looked at picks 31-40 compared to 41-50 over the same period (2000-2013)...

Picks 31-40:
Average games: 63
Number of 100+ game players: 21
Number of 200+ game players: 6
Number of players who played less than 10 games: 28

Picks 41-50:
Average games: 59
Number of 100+ game players: 25
Number of 200+ game players: 4
Number of players who played less than 10 games: 29

So overall, gaining twelve spots probably doesn't gain us much overall - though I guess each individual draft is different and maybe this one really is stronger overall and the upgrade will be of use. Anyhow, again, I think it's worth noting that the draft really isn't the be all and end all for club success.
 

Mattrox

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Ok. So some people still seem to be getting in a tizz about downgrading from 10 to 14. Apologies if someone else has posted something similar to the following but really, statistically speaking, outside of the top 5 picks, there aren't too many guarantees when it comes to the draft. Below is some pretty basic statistical analysis of the top 30 draft picks from 2000-2013. It does seem as if putting the top 30 prospects names in a bag and randomly drawing them out wouldn't be much less successful than any targeted drafting strategy...
Good work..... Shows the top 5 picks are generally good..... except selectors get speed wobbles on pick 4.

Interesting that 25% of players picked in the next tier to about pick 20ish play so few games. Conversely there are 25% who get above 100, sometimes well above 100 games.

Looks like pick 8 to 16 are quite even over the journey.... even though selectors seem to have failed badly 25% of the time with pick 15.
 

boffo

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Just listened to the AFL Draft Podcast and Cal Twoomey had Goddard going inside the top 10 and possibly Marchbank as well.

He had Maynard and Ellis as potential picks for us. But it really sounds as if the top 18-20 (bar the top 3) picks are pretty even.

Someone is guaranteed to slip. (Maybe more than 1 as well)
Yep, just listened too, he talked a lot about Maynard but then said he didn't think Adelaide would use #14 on him. He thought Ellis more likely at #14. Note they are both left-footers.
 
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Good work..... Shows the top 5 picks are generally good..... except selectors get speed wobbles on pick 4.

Interesting that 25% of players picked in the next tier to about pick 20ish play so few games. Conversely there are 25% who get above 100, sometimes well above 100 games.

Looks like pick 8 to 16 are quite even over the journey.... even though selectors seem to have failed badly 25% of the time with pick 15.
It should be noted that the figures do include the last couple of drafts so the numbers are dragged down a bit. I did think about only going to 2010 to allow for players having time to establish themselves but I couldn't quite figure out how to exclude these figures with the programme I was using! But going through the drafts it is pretty staggering the number of guys - including top ten picks - who simply don't make the grade.

Also, if we had traded down to pick 13 it seems like we would have been laughing... Lucky number 13 is a cracker apparently.
 

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Just on Brodie Smith it was interesting listening to him on Fox Sports News today where he was presented wearing our new Guernsey.......he said in last year's pre-season he trained with the midfield group with a view to moving into the midfield rotations but Hendo's untimely injury ended that plan. Also said he was hoping to move into the midfield rotations next season but with the new Coaches "team first" approach he would be happy to play wherever Walsh deemed was best for the team. Sounds like the boys are buying into Walsh's "team first" mantra which augurs well for next season I'm daring to believe!!
 

hendo8888

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For those who are interested in how accurate the phantom drafts are check out Knightmare's from 2010. He got the first 7 spot on, as did Faith's phantom draft of 2009.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2010-mock-draft.768543/

His comments on Brodie Smith, which he had going at #24 are generally spot on. Don't think I've ever heard the term 'inside receiver' though. And how could he be so wrong about Brodie's kicking! Rendell knows best.

#24 (St Kilda) – Brodie Smith (SA)

Height: 189cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 14/01/1992
Recruited from: Woodville West Torrens
Style: Chris Judd
Range: 14-31
Why: Good clearance player with elite first step and breakaway speed. Exceptional work rate around the clearances. Runs hard. Continuously wins the contested footy and gets it forward. Competitive, a good mark and strong in contests with the ability to shrug tackles with a shake of the hips. His ability to shake tackles effortlessly is probably close to the best I have ever seen. Always seems to be moving which I think makes him even harder to catch and almost makes for the illusion that he is faster than what he is. He’s fast and he hits the ball at pace. Is good at clearances and contested ball and grabs the ball and runs with near electrifying speed. Has the ability to burst packs. Can also play down back, but I like him most as an inside receiver. Not a big fan of his kicking but otherwise a very good package who could become a star with some of the attributes he possesses, but with that said I’m not certain Smith is a sure thing which is why he could slide to here.
It was a legitimate concern when we drafted him though. It just looks so awkward. He just makes it work better than you'd think was possible.
Considering that that was the only thing that was a knock on him, from that write-up, and became his biggest strength, we got an absolute steal at 14. Because he's pretty much spot on about everything else.
 
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Ok. So some people still seem to be getting in a tizz about downgrading from 10 to 14. Apologies if someone else has posted something similar to the following but really, statistically speaking, outside of the top 5 picks, there aren't too many guarantees when it comes to the draft. Below is some pretty basic statistical analysis of the top 30 draft picks from 2000-2013. It does seem as if putting the top 30 prospects names in a bag and randomly drawing them out wouldn't be much less successful than any targeted drafting strategy...
That's fine but are you saying going from 47 to 35 is a decisive advantage?
 
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That's fine but are you saying going from 47 to 35 is a decisive advantage?
Actually, no. If you see my following post I do similar analysis on picks 31-40 compared to picks 41-50. Statistically speaking, there isn't a huge difference between the two ranges. Maybe there will be this year, but on average, it wouldn't seem to be much of a difference.
 

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Actually, no. If you see my following post I do similar analysis on picks 31-40 compared to picks 41-50. Statistically speaking, there isn't a huge difference between the two ranges. Maybe there will be this year, but on average, it wouldn't seem to be much of a difference.
Alright. But saying people are in a "tizz" over going from 10 to 14 when you're also saying the gain we make from doing so (47 to 35) is negligible at best...

Sounds like we're doing something just for the sake of being seen to be doing something.
 
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Alright. But saying people are in a "tizz" over going from 10 to 14 when you're also saying the gain we make from doing so (47 to 35) is negligible at best...

Sounds like we're doing something just for the sake of being seen to be doing something.
True. It does seem like there wasn't much point to the whole trade but given our drafting in the last little while, I think we should place our trust in the team that they know what they're doing.

Also, just out of interest I had a quick look through picks 31-40 and 41-50 from 2000-2010 and came up with the following best of teams. While the average number of games is pretty similar between the ranges, it does seem like 31-40 has a slightly better pedigree. Even discounting the Father/Son picks... So maybe the upgrade is worth it after all :)

Picks 31-40

B M. Broadbent S. Thompson S. Gilbert
HB B. Vince A. McPhee J. Adcock
C L. Montagna S. Mitchell J. Watson
HF C. Mayne K. Tippett D. Rodan
F S. Motlop T. Cloke M. LeCras
Ruck I. Maric G. Ablett J. Kennedy
IC T. Goldstein L. Shiels L. Greenwood C. Brown

Picks 41-50

B H. Shaw S. Wakelin B. Houli
HB K. Simpson A. Carlisle D. Cassissi
C J. Sherman A. Christensen J. Steven
HF A. Krakouer T. Hawkins A. Welsh
F B. Ebert J. Waite S. Reid
Ruck Z. Dawson A. Swallow R. Sloane
IC M. Williams B. Stratton J. Hunt R. Warnock
 

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On Smith, I think you're underestimating how good his kick was as a junior, as many 'experts' like Knightmare did. The only thing about Smith's kick is that it's a very natural and slightly ungainly technique. Some people didn't like the look of it and assumed it wouldn't stand up at AFL level.
I'm not making any personal assessments, purely going on what was said by the majority of the avid draft watchers. Whilst I saw a few of his SANFL games pre-draft, he hardly stood out bar a couple of awesome long goals. Others would have seen more of him and known him better, hence I defer to them and the widely accepted opinion was that he could hoof it a long way, accurate at goal, but a little indescriminate with distance.

Either way, he slipped to 14 and I'm bloody thankful for that and he's certainly one of the best kicks in the AFL.
 

mickfaxis

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Yep, just listened too, he talked a lot about Maynard but then said he didn't think Adelaide would use #14 on him. He thought Ellis more likely at #14. Note they are both left-footers.
The closer we get to Draft Day, the more I want Cockatoo with pick 14!!! 50 000 at Adelaide Oval rising as one as he takes off and leaves everyone for dead on the outer wing is incredibly enticing!
 

matty p

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Just listened to the AFL Draft Podcast and Cal Twoomey had Goddard going inside the top 10 and possibly Marchbank as well.

He had Maynard and Ellis as potential picks for us. But it really sounds as if the top 18-20 (bar the top 3) picks are pretty even.

Someone is guaranteed to slip. (Maybe more than 1 as well)
Neither Ellis or Maynard are quick enough for my liking. They won't be breaking the lines and providing the x-factor we need. Hope we don't pick either of them.
 

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Any chance Lever could get through to 14? And would we undoubtedly snap him up?
Everyone being frightened of that injury he sustained this season is our only hope of that.

Be surprised if he even slid to 10.
 

boffo

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The closer we get to Draft Day, the more I want Cockatoo with pick 14!!! 50 000 at Adelaide Oval rising as one as he takes off and leaves everyone for dead on the outer wing is incredibly enticing!
Draft hub has him in the range 10-40 so we could get him, but so could Geelong, WCE, Richmond or Freo (presuming he doesn't go at #8 or higher).
 

boffo

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I love the hype that builds around certain players pre draft. ill be sitting on BF on draft night, with KM's phantom in front of me, watching it all unfold
Funny if we pick someone who this thread has barely mentioned!

KM's phantom draft is pretty good, I'll also be toggling to the draft hub and Emma Quayle will also come out with predictions just before the draft, not sure if she goes beyond the first round though.
 
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Funny if we pick someone who this thread has barely mentioned!

KM's phantom draft is pretty good, I'll also be toggling to the draft hub and Emma Quayle will also come out with predictions just before the draft, not sure if she goes beyond the first round though.
Yep I think our 14th will have been dissected a bit, but wouldn't surprise if our other 3 picks haven't rated a mention on here. There will be a scurry for YouTube highlight clips, and player analysis, before finally everyone claims one of them as 'their boy' having been a fan all along
 

Footypie32

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I just had a thought about the downgrade of pick 10 to 14. Perhaps the deal was based on a bit of good faith in the understanding that Geelong will be more accommodating to us next year? I know it's a long shot, but having a good rapport with other clubs can be come in handy.
 

40porpoise

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This is quite off topic but considering the talk about how Brodie Smith was perceived before he was drafted I thought this was interesting. I was just looking at the Combine records, did anybody know that VB holds the 3rd best record for the agility test?
 
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