Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

Status
Not open for further replies.

mickfaxis

Club Legend
Joined
Sep 28, 2014
Posts
2,185
Likes
2,499
AFL Club
Adelaide
If it was calculated (somehow) that the pick swap had a 70% chance of being very beneficial, 20% chance of making no difference, and 10% chance of being detrimental, would you do it? If it turned out to detrimental, would it have been a bad decision at the time?
The question is what is "beneficial"?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Macca Pakka

Team Captain
Joined
May 27, 2013
Posts
392
Likes
335
AFL Club
Adelaide
Probably a little bit premature to be speculating on whether a player is a 'big game' player or not, given the criteria that we are deciding that by.

Dale Thomas was a 'big game' player in his draft year but one might say he goes missing at important times... I'd say there would be plenty of inverse examples too.

I'd be skeptical about drafting a player on a big game alone.
Agree 100% on this.

I guess what I am suggesting is that at every level of sport, whether the AFL or ammos, some players thrive on the pressure of delivering when it counts. Tex is probably a perfect example of this. Yet others simply go into their shells with the moment being too big for them.

That's not to say that a "big game" player won't have a bad day out in a crucial game at times, but generally they step up when it counts. The concern would be IF Wright has consistently gone missing in crucial games whether at Nationals, TAC, local footy etc. Of course there are plenty of factors to consider such as sample size, strength of team, weather etc. which may explain him MIA.

Freddy Bassett it does seem that most players have serious question marks. I just wonder if question marks over skills can be rectified easier than question marks over mental toughness. Agreed that there is plenty to work with though. With Lowden in, I just wonder whether there might be better options.

Either way, with the draft so even I'm happy to back whoever we select.
 

Mattrox

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Mar 7, 2012
Posts
16,885
Likes
13,970
AFL Club
Adelaide
Relax and chill out. Take a read of what I said. I didnt use the word "NEVER" I said they are better. The fact remains this to be true.

The draft process over the last 2-3 years is a lot better than the list of players you provided above in selecting the best player. The fault of the player not coming to fruition in being a good player is more to do with the Club he lands at as opposed to the quality of the player. The Demons have historically screwed almost every early draft pick.

Every Club in the AFL would rather Pick 1 and Pick 41 over two picks in the 20s.

Surely you are not naive enough to believe that the Saints would trade pick 1 for two picks in the 20s.:rolleyes:
You could use the same argument that hypothetically pick 20 and pick 21 is better than pick 1 and pick 41, which definitely is never the case.;)
What the hell are you on about?

"....which definitely is never the case"

I read what you said. "definitely is never" is definitely definitive.
 

lunacy

Premiership Player
Joined
Jul 25, 2006
Posts
3,611
Likes
2,985
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
I understand the overall picture and have seen you post it before. Personally, I hope like hell the club gets it right and the player we pick at 35 is a potential superstar that we've kept our eye on for a number of years.

I just don't like being out of the top 10. It's a dicey situation missing out on players that you could have had in a Draft that has a few players in the top 15 that desperately fill our needs. It puts a lot of unwarranted pressure, externally, on the guy that was picked at 14. And Rucci all be the first to remind us all if things go a bit awry.

No question you're right with your last statement. We can surmise and predict all we like, it won't be until 2017 when we'll really know that we did was clever, a risk, or downright stupid. We'll revisit it then.
Generally yes, but this draft is very unique with players universally ranked 5-25 being very even. And most of those guys meet a need of ours. Noble specifically said they wouldn't have done that deal in most drafts.

Also re pick 35, I'm not so sure they have a specific player they want at that pick, but rather they believe the draft drops off in quality from pick 35 compared to pick 47.
 

lunacy

Premiership Player
Joined
Jul 25, 2006
Posts
3,611
Likes
2,985
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
Nobody knows for sure whether the difference between 5-25 is really that even. Recruiters and so called 'experts' can say that, but the proof will be in the games they've all played, the development they have, and who does what in 3 years time. The drop between 10-14 won't be minor if the player we had in mind at 14 moves up the draft order and gets taken at 11 or 12.
Well no maybe not in time, but at this stage they are very even on performance. That may change depending on the development departments at the differing clubs, opportunities at the club they get drafted too etc.

The experts know these guys extremely well.
 

Amacca 23

Team Captain
Joined
Sep 20, 2014
Posts
321
Likes
181
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
dallas cowboys,chicago bulls
all im hearing is wawawa we did the deal get over it hmm so tell me why the 9 clubs who didnt pick danger arent being called fools
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

James_37

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Sep 19, 2007
Posts
9,788
Likes
9,290
Location
Darwin
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
GCFC/Sturt/MLDFC
Geez, try to say Tagliabue 5x quickly...

Commentators country wide are cringing at the thought of pronouncing that name in the heat of a game.

Certainly happy for us to grab another ruck, preferably probably the rookie draft. Our tall depth is a long, long way off what it needs to be.
 

Stiffy_18

Premium Platinum
Joined
Dec 14, 2002
Posts
37,871
Likes
11,930
Location
who cares
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sacramento Kings
I am far from a draft expert, but I would like to see us get Reece McKenzie. We are in major need of contested marking inside 50 going forward. Pods provided that this year but we need a long term replacement. Neither Walker or Jenkins are greta contested marks.

McKenzie is a great size, good athlete, great contested mark and a raw basketball convert. The upside is huge. I would love to see us swing for the fences here. Sure the pick will get ridiculed but in 3 years time, we would be laughing. Just like we did with Dangerfield.

I could see Walker, Jenkins and McKenzie really proving to be more than a handful for the opposition in a few years time.

I think we will load up with talls in this draft and look for a quick midfielder next year. This year's draft apparently has some good tall prospects so I think of the 4 picks, we will get 3 talls and a midfield type
 
Joined
Nov 6, 2003
Posts
64,780
Likes
56,408
Location
Baghdad
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
West Adelaide, Baghdad Bombers
I am far from a draft expert, but I would like to see us get Reece McKenzie. We are in major need of contested marking inside 50 going forward. Pods provided that this year but we need a long term replacement. Neither Walker or Jenkins are greta contested marks.

McKenzie is a great size, good athlete, great contested mark and a raw basketball convert. The upside is huge. I would love to see us swing for the fences here. Sure the pick will get ridiculed but in 3 years time, we would be laughing. Just like we did with Dangerfield.

I could see Walker, Jenkins and McKenzie really proving to be more than a handful for the opposition in a few years time.

I think we will load up with talls in this draft and look for a quick midfielder next year. This year's draft apparently has some good tall prospects so I think of the 4 picks, we will get 3 talls and a midfield type
absolutely couldn't agree more .....McKenzie with one years footy behind him has huge upside

Also can't agree with some phantom drafts that have us only taking one tall ......hell we've delisted so many talls we simply have to replace in ND and rookie draft
 
Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Posts
1,998
Likes
2,907
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
I am far from a draft expert, but I would like to see us get Reece McKenzie. We are in major need of contested marking inside 50 going forward. Pods provided that this year but we need a long term replacement. Neither Walker or Jenkins are greta contested marks.

McKenzie is a great size, good athlete, great contested mark and a raw basketball convert. The upside is huge. I would love to see us swing for the fences here. Sure the pick will get ridiculed but in 3 years time, we would be laughing. Just like we did with Dangerfield.

I could see Walker, Jenkins and McKenzie really proving to be more than a handful for the opposition in a few years time.

I think we will load up with talls in this draft and look for a quick midfielder next year. This year's draft apparently has some good tall prospects so I think of the 4 picks, we will get 3 talls and a midfield type
Absolutely, 3 talls and 1 mid is the way we need to go. Currently, only Essendon has fewer players >190cm on their list. It's what we must try and address at this draft.

Reece McKenzie, unfortunately, will probably fall between our 1st and 2nd picks. Not good enough for pick 14, but too good for pick 35.
 

Schulzycrow

Vale Walshy..Gone too soon.
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Posts
7,018
Likes
5,340
Location
Land of Procrastination
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
NorwoodFC, Chic Bulls, Gldn State
Haha just watched Danger's highlight reel on the afc website. One I hadn't seen. 5 minute clip of him running from, past and around opposition players! Actually hitting targets flat out on both sides as well.
How has he gone to not be able to hit targets 50% of the time by foot?
 

boffo

Club Legend
Joined
Aug 7, 2006
Posts
1,551
Likes
2,111
AFL Club
Adelaide
Just watched this as well. How did he fall to 10?!
IIRC his kicking ability was being questioned at the time. Plus I think his stated desire to do year 12 rather than train/play full time in his first year also put some off.

Lucky for us Rendell knew what he was doing.

But just on highlight reels, I'd like to see a 'clanger reel' for each draftee too.
 

OutofTownCrow

Premium Platinum
Joined
Oct 15, 2012
Posts
9,421
Likes
16,192
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
New York Rangers, Dodgers, Redlegs
Haha just watched Danger's highlight reel on the afc website. One I hadn't seen. 5 minute clip of him running from, past and around opposition players! Actually hitting targets flat out on both sides as well.
The thing that struck me was him playing so well across half-back ... maybe a McLeod type role is what he should be striving for?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom