- Mar 27, 2018
- AFL Club
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
This is the last post from me in regards to this discussion. I don’t mean to be disrespectful because I realise your Probably an experienced punter, comparatively to me anyway. But I don’t think you have the knowledge of NBA that avid followers like myself do.Interesting logic - especially given they had just given up a 31 point lead to lose a game
For this purpose I will try to illustrate my logic as best as I can from my initial bet April 15th @1.47. Going into the playoffs I value’d GSW chances of winning at about 90-95%. That seems remarkably high but that was my consensus. I understand markets consider variables such as injuries, suspensions and what ever else, but these variables in my eyes didn’t come close to the gap at my valuation. I understand the irony now that Durant is injured, but it is what it is. even after the 31 point comeback that did not change my thoughts. They got complacent that game, but you only need to look at their game time minutes to realise they were not operating in top gear. I think what’s also important is that the following game they showed up and won by 27 away from home, id say that’s an impressive response due to getting complacent at home in a game they probably thought they had in the bag.
That is all. I hope you can now see my logic.