NBA season 18/19

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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Interesting logic - especially given they had just given up a 31 point lead to lose a game
This is the last post from me in regards to this discussion. I don’t mean to be disrespectful because I realise your Probably an experienced punter, comparatively to me anyway. But I don’t think you have the knowledge of NBA that avid followers like myself do.
For this purpose I will try to illustrate my logic as best as I can from my initial bet April 15th @1.47. Going into the playoffs I value’d GSW chances of winning at about 90-95%. That seems remarkably high but that was my consensus. I understand markets consider variables such as injuries, suspensions and what ever else, but these variables in my eyes didn’t come close to the gap at my valuation. I understand the irony now that Durant is injured, but it is what it is. even after the 31 point comeback that did not change my thoughts. They got complacent that game, but you only need to look at their game time minutes to realise they were not operating in top gear. I think what’s also important is that the following game they showed up and won by 27 away from home, id say that’s an impressive response due to getting complacent at home in a game they probably thought they had in the bag.
That is all. I hope you can now see my logic.
 

TheExtractorFactor

Premiership Player
Nov 27, 2012
3,025
12,180
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Knicks // NY Giants
Odd that you rated them a 90-95% chance to win with Durant but no chance at all without him given they were the best regular season team in history and were a whisker away from back to back titles without him and still have the four key players from that run on the team.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Odd that you rated them a 90-95% chance to win with Durant but no chance at all without him given they were the best regular season team in history and were a whisker away from back to back titles without him and still have the four key players from that run on the team.
Your missing the point. Obviously I still think they are a good chance without Durant. But without him. My value is lost in the bet
 

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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Leonard with one of the craziest buzzer-beaters ever. Raptors vs bucks will be interesting. My warriors should cruise past the blazers with or without Durant. Just hope he’s back for the final.
Sb have SGM promo for conference finals
 

Red Dog Styles

Club Legend
Feb 13, 2017
1,013
584
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Leonard with one of the craziest buzzer-beaters ever. Raptors vs bucks will be interesting. My warriors should cruise past the blazers with or without Durant. Just hope he’s back for the final.
Sb have SGM promo for conference finals
Was happy for your Gws futures bet, suprised me when they wrapped up the Rox in 6. Was unsure whether you cashed out but glad to know you didn't!

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Let’s try first basket sgm:
GSW win
Kanter 1st basket
Klay O3.5 3’s
@14.75
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Not that it matters much. But Bogut played an entire 3:30 mins with the sole purpose of winning the jump ball to ensure first possession. Interested to see if it happens game 3
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Gws bet very safe now

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Hmm. Sb have the odds at 1.33. I rekon that’s about on the money. Considering the mystery surrounding Durant, if I knew he was going to play by game 2 or 3, it’s as safe as houses. I harp on about him, but imo he’s the best player in the world. Looks like Cousins is set to return for the series, which will be important if they play Toronto in the final, as Siakam is a more dangerous center.
 

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TheExtractorFactor

Premiership Player
Nov 27, 2012
3,025
12,180
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Knicks // NY Giants
Warriors have gone from $1.30 to $1.70 to win the series after losing game one on the road as an underdog. Bit of an overreaction I think.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
ffs... I’m just about done. Klay Thompson with a hamstring injury. Everything is going against them. Now I don’t know what to do here. I’m waiting for the cash out option. Will probably be around cash-back. Do I take it? Or let it ride? It’s hard to know when/ if Durant and Klay return now. They just won on the road, but after Klay went down they looked in real trouble. but without these 2 I don’t think they can win the series.
 

Red Dog Styles

Club Legend
Feb 13, 2017
1,013
584
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
ffs... I’m just about done. Klay Thompson with a hamstring injury. Everything is going against them. Now I don’t know what to do here. I’m waiting for the cash out option. Will probably be around cash-back. Do I take it? Or let it ride? It’s hard to know when/ if Durant and Klay return now. They just won on the road, but after Klay went down they looked in real trouble. but without these 2 I don’t think they can win the series.
Gsw odds dropped significantly, i say this win helps them. I know Klay out is huge but not as big as the advantage Gsw have now.

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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,963
3,272
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
RIP GSW championship bets
Haha, yeah there cooked. In hindsight I should have cashed out after game 2 for money back. Game 3 was the decider and without 2 all stars they just couldn’t match it. I’ll move onto the next bet. I stand by that this had value though, if Durant had of played the series, they win it 80% of the time.
 

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