NBA season 18/19

[NonPhixion]

Interesting logic - especially given they had just given up a 31 point lead to lose a game

This is the last post from me in regards to this discussion. I don’t mean to be disrespectful because I realise your Probably an experienced punter, comparatively to me anyway. But I don’t think you have the knowledge of NBA that avid followers like myself do.
For this purpose I will try to illustrate my logic as best as I can from my initial bet April 15th @1.47. Going into the playoffs I value’d GSW chances of winning at about 90-95%. That seems remarkably high but that was my consensus. I understand markets consider variables such as injuries, suspensions and what ever else, but these variables in my eyes didn’t come close to the gap at my valuation. I understand the irony now that Durant is injured, but it is what it is. even after the 31 point comeback that did not change my thoughts. They got complacent that game, but you only need to look at their game time minutes to realise they were not operating in top gear. I think what’s also important is that the following game they showed up and won by 27 away from home, id say that’s an impressive response due to getting complacent at home in a game they probably thought they had in the bag.
That is all. I hope you can now see my logic.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Odd that you rated them a 90-95% chance to win with Durant but no chance at all without him given they were the best regular season team in history and were a whisker away from back to back titles without him and still have the four key players from that run on the team.

 

[NonPhixion]

Odd that you rated them a 90-95% chance to win with Durant but no chance at all without him given they were the best regular season team in history and were a whisker away from back to back titles without him and still have the four key players from that run on the team.

Your missing the point. Obviously I still think they are a good chance without Durant. But without him. My value is lost in the bet

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Your missing the point. Obviously I still think they are a good chance without Durant. But without him. My value is lost in the bet

That's fair. By saying 'my bet is out the window' I thought you were tearing up your ticket.

 

[NonPhixion]

That's fair. By saying 'my bet is out the window' I thought you were tearing up your ticket.

I always reference to value, lost value is a lost bet to me.sorry it probably wasn’t clear.

 

[NonPhixion]

Leonard with one of the craziest buzzer-beaters ever. Raptors vs bucks will be interesting. My warriors should cruise past the blazers with or without Durant. Just hope he’s back for the final.
Sb have SGM promo for conference finals

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Leonard with one of the craziest buzzer-beaters ever. Raptors vs bucks will be interesting. My warriors should cruise past the blazers with or without Durant. Just hope he’s back for the final.
Sb have SGM promo for conference finals

Was happy for your Gws futures bet, suprised me when they wrapped up the Rox in 6. Was unsure whether you cashed out but glad to know you didn't!

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[NonPhixion]

SGM
GSW win, Lillard O24.5 points, Green O7.5 assists @3.40

 

[NonPhixion]

Let’s try first basket sgm:
GSW win
Kanter 1st basket
Klay O3.5 3’s
@14.75

 

[NonPhixion]

Not that it matters much. But Bogut played an entire 3:30 mins with the sole purpose of winning the jump ball to ensure first possession. Interested to see if it happens game 3

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Ok guys I’m now sweating hard on my 5u GSW bet. Durant left today’s game with an injury. If he can’t play out the rest of the playoffs... then the bet is out the window. God I hope it’s only minor, doesn’t look good tho

Gws bet very safe now

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[NonPhixion]

Gws bet very safe now

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Hmm. Sb have the odds at 1.33. I rekon that’s about on the money. Considering the mystery surrounding Durant, if I knew he was going to play by game 2 or 3, it’s as safe as houses. I harp on about him, but imo he’s the best player in the world. Looks like Cousins is set to return for the series, which will be important if they play Toronto in the final, as Siakam is a more dangerous center.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Toronto winning gives Warriors home court you beauty!

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[Red Dog Styles]

Toronto winning gives Warriors home court you beauty!

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Actually, i got that wrong.
$1.90 for Warriors game 1 is tempting, also series line -1.5 at the same price

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[NonPhixion]

Game 1 SGM:
Warriors win 3rd Qtr, Lowry O2.5 3's, Curry O4.5 Assists @6

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Warriors have gone from $1.30 to $1.70 to win the series after losing game one on the road as an underdog. Bit of an overreaction I think.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Warriors have gone from $1.30 to $1.70 to win the series after losing game one on the road as an underdog. Bit of an overreaction I think.

Well said, exactly what i was thinking.
Happy to add to my multis

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[NonPhixion]

ffs... I’m just about done. Klay Thompson with a hamstring injury. Everything is going against them. Now I don’t know what to do here. I’m waiting for the cash out option. Will probably be around cash-back. Do I take it? Or let it ride? It’s hard to know when/ if Durant and Klay return now. They just won on the road, but after Klay went down they looked in real trouble. but without these 2 I don’t think they can win the series.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

ffs... I’m just about done. Klay Thompson with a hamstring injury. Everything is going against them. Now I don’t know what to do here. I’m waiting for the cash out option. Will probably be around cash-back. Do I take it? Or let it ride? It’s hard to know when/ if Durant and Klay return now. They just won on the road, but after Klay went down they looked in real trouble. but without these 2 I don’t think they can win the series.

Gsw odds dropped significantly, i say this win helps them. I know Klay out is huge but not as big as the advantage Gsw have now.

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[Red Dog Styles]

Plus maybe better to wait for a the 2 Gsw home games.
If you were to cash out, the payout wont change too much until after game 3 is played, if Toronto win Gsw will still be favorites for series but if Gsw win, payout will be close to maximum

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[Browney2006]

Durant’s not gunna play anymore in this series I feel. Game 4 is huge, GSW lose this and it’s pretty much lights

 

[Browney2006]

RIP GSW championship bets

 

[NonPhixion]

RIP GSW championship bets

Haha, yeah there cooked. In hindsight I should have cashed out after game 2 for money back. Game 3 was the decider and without 2 all stars they just couldn’t match it. I’ll move onto the next bet. I stand by that this had value though, if Durant had of played the series, they win it 80% of the time.