Opinion Negativity In The Port Adelaide Supporter Base

[RussellEbertHandball]

8 year cycles do not apply as a definite minimum number of years for clubs to become successful. Sheedy claimed that was the cycle of the AFL and its draft to have success at the minimum because his record suggested so, and Choco adopted these claims as well, but in Sheedy's so called cycles he had a list built under different systems, such as the pre- and post-draft, and so his cycles cannot be measured for comparison. This goes for any club with premierships crossing over non-drafting and drafting seasons. There are many teams where the 8 year cycle hasn't applied, Port!

Of course they are not definitive, but 8 is basically the number of seasons you have to win one, or you get the arse. Plus there is the burn out factor of the head coach.

In the last 25 years, Neale Daniher 9.x seasons and Brad Scott 9.x seasons are the only coaches who have lasted more than 8 seasons without a flag.

Sheedy won in his 4th, 5th, 13th, 20th, has GF losses before middle and after those flags, plus 2 x 1pt PF losses. Yes there were different player zone and drafting rules but he had the energy and ability for the long haul.

Malthouse got the Pies a flag in his 11th, but being a dual premiership coach at the Eagles and the fact they maxed out with GF's in 2002-03 in his 3rd and 4th seasons, he got the opportunity to rebuild the list. Only Ben Johnson 2010 both GF's and Leon Davis in the 2010 drawn GF played in the 2003 losing GF.

A flag in those first 8 years gets you more time. Look at flags post Brisbane's flags when the newer coaches, apart from Malthouse 2010, won flags and the old boys eg Parkin, Pagan, Blight, Sheedy and Matthews haven't won any.

Choco flag in 6th season got 5.x seasons more.

Thompson at Geelong got it in his 8th, got 3 more before the job sent him around the bend.

Hardwick got it in his 8th and gets at least 4 more.

Chris Scott got one in his 1st, thanks to the squad he inherited and next 7 seasons hasn't really looked liked getting there come finals time. In his 8th season post 2011, he looks most likely at this stage of his career.

Roos got it in his 3rd full season and then had enough after 9 all up.

Longmire got it in his 2nd season and whilst has been close a couple of times hasn't done it again in next 6 and after the 7th, might leave for North.

Worsfold got it in his 5th and being a club legend that was captain or coach of all 3 flags, he got a good long run, but he was burnt out 7 seasons later.

Simpson got it in his 5th, and will be there for another 5 at least if he wants to stay.

Clarko lucked out a bit and got it a couple of years earlier than expected in his 4th, thanks to a massive Geelong choke ( after their 23-1 season) but had to wait another 5 seasons to get the next one and assisted by the GC and GWS talent concentration not being spread around the clubs, was able to get 3 in a row. I don't think he will last 7 or 8 seasons at Hawthorn post 2015, but I could be wrong.

Buckley might be another one who gets more than 8 seasons without a flag - because Eddie loves him and wants to boof him, and he just can't get rid of him.

Lyon is another one to watch. 5 seasons at St Kilda, got back to back GF's in 3rd and 4th, then got the Freo offer and this year is his 8th season - but he did make a GF in his 2nd with them. Will he stay after this contract?

So Ken knows he has to get one in 2019 or 2020 or maybe 2021 depending on what his contract actually says.

 

[Janey]

Haha. You must have misclicked...that smiley face was surely meant to be a wink?

Nah, just smiling at Steve. This is a wink

 

[Janus]

Of course they are not definitive, but 8 is basically the number of seasons you have to win one, or you get the arse. Plus there is the burn out factor of the head coach.

In the last 25 years, Neale Daniher 9.x seasons and Brad Scott 9.x seasons are the only coaches who have lasted more than 8 seasons without a flag.

Sheedy won in his 4th, 5th, 13th, 20th, has GF losses before middle and after those flags, plus 2 x 1pt PF losses. Yes there were different player zone and drafting rules but he had the energy and ability for the long haul.

Malthouse got the Pies a flag in his 11th, but being a dual premiership coach at the Eagles and the fact they maxed out with GF's in 2002-03 in his 3rd and 4th seasons, he got the opportunity to rebuild the list. Only Ben Johnson 2010 both GF's and Leon Davis in the 2010 drawn GF played in the 2003 losing GF.

A flag in those first 8 years gets you more time. Look at flags post Brisbane's flags when the newer coaches, apart from Malthouse 2010, won flags and the old boys eg Parkin, Pagan, Blight, Sheedy and Matthews haven't won any.

Choco flag in 6th season got 5.x seasons more.

Thompson at Geelong got it in his 8th, got 3 more before the job sent him around the bend.

Hardwick got it in his 8th and gets at least 4 more.

Chris Scott got one in his 1st, thanks to the squad he inherited and next 7 seasons hasn't really looked liked getting there come finals time. In his 8th season post 2011, he looks most likely at this stage of his career.

Roos got it in his 3rd full season and then had enough after 9 all up.

Longmire got it in his 2nd season and whilst has been close a couple of times hasn't done it again in next 6 and after the 7th, might leave for North.

Worsfold got it in his 5th and being a club legend that was captain or coach of all 3 flags, he got a good long run, but he was burnt out 7 seasons later.

Simpson got it in his 5th, and will be there for another 5 at least if he wants to stay.

Clarko lucked out a bit and got it a couple of years earlier than expected in his 4th, thanks to a massive Geelong choke ( after their 23-1 season) but had to wait another 5 seasons to get the next one and assisted by the GC and GWS talent concentration not being spread around the clubs, was able to get 3 in a row. I don't think he will last 7 or 8 seasons at Hawthorn post 2015, but I could be wrong.

Buckley might be another one who gets more than 8 seasons without a flag - because Eddie loves him and wants to boof him, and he just can't get rid of him.

Lyon is another one to watch. 5 seasons at St Kilda, got back to back GF's in 3rd and 4th, then got the Freo offer and this year is his 8th season - but he did make a GF in his 2nd with them. Will he stay after this contract?

So Ken knows he has to get one in 2019 or 2020 or maybe 2021 depending on what his contract actually says.

That was based around an era that didn't have free agency, three year cap space spend and the ability to do future trades. It was to do with the draft cycle - a club would go down the bottom of the ladder for a year or two, gather elite talent, then slowly add more talent to the list...knowing that no one else had access to the players you did.

8 years from being at the bottom of the ladder = top ten draft picks from the two years before you arrived (because coaches are always sacked for not making finals when the board believes they should have) are now 28/29 years old and still producing great football, top three draft picks from years 1 and 2 are now 26/27 years old and in their prime, top ten draft picks from years 3 and 4 are now 24/25 years old and entering their prime. Replicate that for second and third round picks, and that's your list...plus whatever trades you need to do to get key pieces to challenge for a flag.

With FA now, the cycle doesn't oscillate as dramatically. Teams who are finalists generally tend to stay finalists for a long time. When we made the decision to trade Wingard and Polec, it was based on a concept that our cycle would be a perpetual cycle of 5th to 12th. We artificially simulated a poor season in both 2016 and 2018 where we would gain an elite pool of talent - Marshall, Powell-Pepper, Drew, Atley, Rozee, Butters, Duursma and Burton - to break free of that cycle.

Melbourne will find themselves stuck in the same loop we have been for this very reason. It's eerie how similar the 2015 Port Adelaide season is going to the Melbourne 2019 season.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

That was based around an era that didn't have free agency, three year cap space spend and the ability to do future trades. It was to do with the draft cycle - a club would go down the bottom of the ladder for a year or two, gather elite talent, then slowly add more talent to the list...knowing that no one else had access to the players you did.

8 years from being at the bottom of the ladder = top ten draft picks from the two years before you arrived (because coaches are always sacked for not making finals when the board believes they should have) are now 28/29 years old and still producing great football, top three draft picks from years 1 and 2 are now 26/27 years old and in their prime, top ten draft picks from years 3 and 4 are now 24/25 years old and entering their prime. Replicate that for second and third round picks, and that's your list...plus whatever trades you need to do to get key pieces to challenge for a flag.

With FA now, the cycle doesn't oscillate as dramatically. Teams who are finalists generally tend to stay finalists for a long time. When we made the decision to trade Wingard and Polec, it was based on a concept that our cycle would be a perpetual cycle of 5th to 12th. We artificially simulated a poor season in both 2016 and 2018 where we would gain an elite pool of talent - Marshall, Powell-Pepper, Drew, Atley, Rozee, Butters, Duursma and Burton - to break free of that cycle.

Melbourne will find themselves stuck in the same loop we have been for this very reason. It's eerie how similar the 2015 Port Adelaide season is going to the Melbourne 2019 season.

So that would imply a coach has less than 8 years to get a flag?

I don't think its going to change much as the soft cap means coaches wont be very often sacked before their contract is up and if you take over a club in the bottom half of the table, you will probably get 2 x 3 year deals, and maybe a third one, so unless you are incompetent, you will be around for that 6 years or 9 year to get a shot at a flag.

And there is a bit of a fallacy of composition about FA. If everyone is doing it, and players are demanding moves for better $$$ and opportunities from all clubs, then there is no real long term net gain to anyone that much over everyone else.

 

[Andre]

So that would imply a coach has less than 8 years to get a flag?

I don't think its going to change much as the soft cap means coaches wont be very often sacked before their contract is up and if you take over a club in the bottom half of the table, you will probably get 2 x 3 year deals, and a third one, so unless you are incompetent, you will be around for that 6 years or 9 year to get a shot at a flag.

And there is a bit of a fallacy of composition about FA. If everyone is doing it, and players are demanding moves for better $$$ and opportunities from all clubs, then there is no real long term net gain to anyone that much over everyone else.

Which leaves that all clubs have access to FA's and trades, but there's still the draft cycle underlying it all. Free agents alone won't get you from bottom 4 to in contention, you need to draft talent then use FA's / trades for the 'missing pieces'. Free agency will also extend a run (Hawks, Geelong), but at a cost of long term. If you get flags out of it (Hawks), you DGAF at having to re-start the cycle again. Of course if you stuff it up you're in the state of North Melbourne, further away then ever and nothing to show for it. At some point though every one does need to restart from lower / mid-table.

8 years is still a good rough metric anyway, as whether you're draft heavy, trade heavy and/or Free Agent heavy in how you build your list, by 8 years there's no excuse that the list isn't the coaches list at that point. Even more so with Free Agency, since coaches get more input into that then they do into who'll be drafted. Which only means Hinkley is to be held to a stricter standard if he fails then if we had gone draft, draft, draft from 2015 onwards.

 

[Janus]

So that would imply a coach has less than 8 years to get a flag?

I don't think its going to change much as the soft cap means coaches wont be very often sacked before their contract is up and if you take over a club in the bottom half of the table, you will probably get 2 x 3 year deals, and maybe a third one, so unless you are incompetent, you will be around for that 6 years or 9 year to get a shot at a flag.

And there is a bit of a fallacy of composition about FA. If everyone is doing it, and players are demanding moves for better $$$ and opportunities from all clubs, then there is no real long term net gain to anyone that much over everyone else.

Other way around.

Clubs are all about stability now. They'll pick a coach who they believe reflects the ethos of the club - the changes happen with the assistants. Gone are the days when the head coach was responsible for everything. It's moving toward an NFL system where you have the offensive coordinator and the defensive coordinator.

The best coaching setups involve a group that all sees the game the same way, because it limits confusion in the coaching box. If you want to play a different style, then you get a different head coach.

All you really want to see is progress every year.

 

[dirty2]

Other way around.

Clubs are all about stability now. They'll pick a coach who they believe reflects the ethos of the club - the changes happen with the assistants. Gone are the days when the head coach was responsible for everything. It's moving toward an NFL system where you have the offensive coordinator and the defensive coordinator.

The best coaching setups involve a group that all sees the game the same way, because it limits confusion in the coaching box. If you want to play a different style, then you get a different head coach.

All you really want to see is progress every year.

Would disagree with that.

No point having the coach and assistant's all thinking the same way.

Different idea's from an assistant for example to move player D into the middle instead of player A can work wonders... (and can fail)

We all see the game in different ways... some of us more attacking or defensive... a good mix of both is the way to go.

Idea's from all coaches put together to find a game plan that suits the team ect would be better then 5 hinkleys sitting in the coaches box all sipping sugar free coke.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Other way around.

Clubs are all about stability now. They'll pick a coach who they believe reflects the ethos of the club - the changes happen with the assistants. Gone are the days when the head coach was responsible for everything. It's moving toward an NFL system where you have the offensive coordinator and the defensive coordinator.

The best coaching setups involve a group that all sees the game the same way, because it limits confusion in the coaching box. If you want to play a different style, then you get a different head coach.

All you really want to see is progress every year.

My NFL knowledge isn't that good these days, but the only 10 year coaches at one team that I'm aware of, are the ones who have won Super Bowls, Belichick at the Pats, Tomlin at Steelers, Ravens coach Harburgh, Carroll at Seattle and New Orleans coach Sean Payton. If there are 3 others who haven't won a Super Bowl that's still only 8 out of 32. If there are 5 others, that's still less than a third of the head coaches.

Happy to be corrected on the above, but time is money, still dominates professional sports thinking.

 

[Janus]

My NFL knowledge isn't that good these days, but the only 10 year coaches at one team that I'm aware of, are the ones who have won Super Bowls, Belichick at the Pats, Tomlin at Steelers, Ravens coach Harburgh, Carroll at Seattle and New Orleans coach Sean Payton. If there are 3 others who haven't won a Super Bowl that's still only 8 out of 32. If there are 5 others, that's still less than a third of the head coaches.

Happy to be corrected on the above, but time is money, still dominates professional sports thinking.

Much to my chagrin, Jason Garrett is heading into his ninth season as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He's never made it past the divisional round.

Anyway, I wasn't relating the NFL analogy to the head coach. It was specifically to the concept of the assistants actually having a greater say in the performance of the team than most realise.

 

[Janus]

Would disagree with that.

No point having the coach and assistant's all thinking the same way.

Different idea's from an assistant for example to move player D into the middle instead of player A can work wonders... (and can fail)

We all see the game in different ways... some of us more attacking or defensive... a good mix of both is the way to go.

Idea's from all coaches put together to find a game plan that suits the team ect would be better then 5 hinkleys sitting in the coaches box all sipping sugar free coke.

Bassett, Montgomery and Schofield would hold the same ideology as Ken - that's what I mean by seeing the game the same way.

How they go about implementing it is where they can be different.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

People have been arguing about the disconnection between the club and the supporters, but after looking at the difference between Facebook and Bigfooty I think we should be more concerned about the disconnection and division between the supporters themselves.

 

[Magus]

I'm feeling more positive but beating Geelong was one of my absolute non-negotiables preseason.

If we can win the next Showdown + GWS + Essendon, I'll be positive as *.

 

[dirty2]

AwwThatsApples
The division between the "in hinkley we trust" and the "hinkley out" brigade.. and again the #bringbackthebars and and keep the bib port supporters I know personally is there and quite real.

Example. 1 port person I speak to the most loves hinkley and thinks he can't do no wrong... and well... you all know what side I'm on. That same person (who was a port magpies supporter and member) before we joined the afl doesnt believe we should wear the prison bars Guernsey either.


We dont agree on everything but the love for the club is the same. Carn port.

 

[RossFC]

There you go. He checked in last night and has made 7 posts since the end of the game. Exaggerating is normal for him.

He wont leave.

View attachment 698158

PAFC66 thoughts?

 

[OneGreatClub]

PAFC66 thoughts?

Could you imagine the sniffling of the snaffle if it was ever a Port Crows Gf in the seconds

 

[ozph1870]

Fairly young, yeah, was at preschool when we won our last flag.

1884, geez you've aged well.

 

[ozph1870]

People have been arguing about the disconnection between the club and the supporters, but after looking at the difference between Facebook and Bigfooty I think we should be more concerned about the disconnection and division between the supporters themselves.

Facebook is for the casual go port power I like watching my lovely team play on TV, get to a game and clap them off after putting up a brave effort and coming short again.
Bigfooty is for the campaigners who call them campaigners if they campaigner up. The more passionate live and breathe footy type.
The fb ones who come here from time to time get a rude shock, it's not all roses and fluffy bunnies... Then they start threads like...

 

[ElectricG]

Facebook is for the casual go port power I like watching my lovely team play on TV, get to a game and clap them off after putting up a brave effort and coming short again.
Bigfooty is for the campaigners who call them campaigners if they campaigner up. The more passionate live and breathe footy type.
The fb ones who come here from time to time get a rude shock, it's not all roses and fluffy bunnies... Then they start threads like...

Bigfooty is for distinctly millennial fans (if you can call them fans at all when they’re always praying that we lose) with a severe lack of maturity and attention span.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Bigfooty is for distinctly millennial fans (if you can call them fans at all when they’re always praying that we lose) with a severe lack of maturity and attention span.

Haha. You think we are all Millennials???

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Andre]

Bigfooty is for distinctly millennial fans (if you can call them fans at all when they’re always praying that we lose) with a severe lack of maturity and attention span.

Except the average age of BigFooty posters would be 10+ years on the Facebook fans.

 

[Dav]

Except the average age of BigFooty posters would be 10+ years on the Facebook fans.

Would have to disagree on that one, I reckon the average age of commenters on most Port posts is about 35 to 40.

 

[Andre]

Would have to disagree on that one, I reckon the average age of commenters on most Port posts is about 35 to 40.

I was under 30 when I started here, now I'm closer to 50 then 40.

 

[tribey]

Clarko lucked out a bit and got it a couple of years earlier than expected in his 4th, thanks to a massive Geelong choke ( after their 23-1 season)

Good of Geelong to serve up their usual Grand Final flop 12 months after the event wasn’t it?

Made Xavier Ellis, Clinton Young and Ric Ladson look like clutch stars and turned Stuey Dew and his spare tyre into a Glenferrie legend.

The ruck tandem of Brent Renouf-Robert Campbell too!

Who needs Lade-Brogan, eh?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Good of Geelong to serve up their usual Grand Final flop 12 months after the event wasn’t it?

Made Xavier Ellis, Clinton Young and Ric Ladson look like clutch stars and turned Stuey Dew and his spare tyre into a Glenferrie legend.

The ruck tandem of Brent Renouf-Robert Campbell too!

Who needs Lade-Brogan, eh?

Geelong should have coped it a lot more than they did, but they got away with it because they won in 2009

 

[OneGreatClub]

Except the average age of BigFooty posters would be 10+ years on the Facebook fans.

And you know what they say about grumpy old men ( and women)
As for Facebook.. a lot of young ones use insta etc instead .