Never before have we seen more upsets after four rounds

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Thread starter #1
It's official, there has never been a more unpredictable first four rounds of an AFL season. After four rounds (36 games), 19 underdogs have been victorious at a win rate of 52.78%.

As can be seen in the table below, in the history of AFL betting since 1996, the previously held record of underdogs winning in the first 36 matches of a season was back in 2000, with 47.22%. But this 2019 season has taken the early upsets cake...

AFL Underdog (UD) wins after first 36 matches since 1996
1555314010677.png



What does this mean?
Well, firstly, it means that if you had simply put 10 dollars on the underdog in every match this season, you'd be several hundred dollars ahead (the average underdog winning odds have been 2.85). But, gambling aside, it basically means that season 2019 is thus far an anomaly, and you should keep faith in your tipping ability. If your workplace tipping comp is being led by someone who knows nothing about footy, let them have their time..it probably won't last long!


Paul P Mark
 

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blitzer

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#6
This year has been a nightmare to tip no doubt. Also I was surprised that the year 2000 was the second most unpredictable season since at least that year you had the unbeatable Essendon to tip each week whereas there is no team that reliable this year with all teams registering a loss by round 4.
 
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Thread starter #7
This year has been a nightmare to tip no doubt. Also I was surprised that the year 2000 was the second most unpredictable season since at least that year you had the unbeatable Essendon to tip each week whereas there is no team that reliable this year with all teams registering a loss by round 4.
Well those stats are for the first 36 matches of each season only. It's interesting to note that 2000 ended up with an underdog victory rate of 32.4%, which is slightly higher than the overall UD win rate of 31.2%. So things 'normalised' after the first four rounds. What will happen in 2019 I wonder?
 

Asapartyhat

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#9
Stolen from awsome Eagles board (green is wins, reds is losses):



Look at this campaigner this tells a story more goodlie.
 

guruisatiger

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#10
It's official, there has never been a more unpredictable first four rounds of an AFL season. After four rounds (36 games), 19 underdogs have been victorious at a win rate of 52.78%.

As can be seen in the table below, in the history of AFL betting since 1996, the previously held record of underdogs winning in the first 36 matches of a season was back in 2000, with 47.22%. But this 2019 season has taken the early upsets cake...

AFL Underdog (UD) wins after first 36 matches since 1996
View attachment 655290


What does this mean?
Well, firstly, it means that if you had simply put 10 dollars on the underdog in every match this season, you'd be several hundred dollars ahead (the average underdog winning odds have been 2.85). But, gambling aside, it basically means that season 2019 is thus far an anomaly, and you should keep faith in your tipping ability. If your workplace tipping comp is being led by someone who knows nothing about footy, let them have their time..it probably won't last long!


Paul P Mark
Who and how decides which team is the underdog?
 

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