Never before have we seen more upsets after four rounds

[Paul P Mark]

It's official, there has never been a more unpredictable first four rounds of an AFL season. After four rounds (36 games), 19 underdogs have been victorious at a win rate of 52.78%.

As can be seen in the table below, in the history of AFL betting since 1996, the previously held record of underdogs winning in the first 36 matches of a season was back in 2000, with 47.22%. But this 2019 season has taken the early upsets cake...

AFL Underdog (UD) wins after first 36 matches since 1996



What does this mean?
Well, firstly, it means that if you had simply put 10 dollars on the underdog in every match this season, you'd be several hundred dollars ahead (the average underdog winning odds have been 2.85). But, gambling aside, it basically means that season 2019 is thus far an anomaly, and you should keep faith in your tipping ability. If your workplace tipping comp is being led by someone who knows nothing about footy, let them have their time..it probably won't last long!


Paul P Mark

 

[Bluelegs]

Is 'Unprecedented' a banned word on the main board?

 

[Kappa]

It's a good stat, who could've thought the Saints and Suns would be 3-1 while Richmond Melbourne and Essendon didn't fire early.

 

[Ari]

I've looked at the ladder a couple times and if you swung it upside down it would still be realistic. Oh, except Carlton.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

It's a good stat, who could've thought the Saints and Suns would be 3-1 while Richmond Melbourne and Essendon didn't fire early.

And your team.

 

[blitzer]

This year has been a nightmare to tip no doubt. Also I was surprised that the year 2000 was the second most unpredictable season since at least that year you had the unbeatable Essendon to tip each week whereas there is no team that reliable this year with all teams registering a loss by round 4.

 

[Paul P Mark]

This year has been a nightmare to tip no doubt. Also I was surprised that the year 2000 was the second most unpredictable season since at least that year you had the unbeatable Essendon to tip each week whereas there is no team that reliable this year with all teams registering a loss by round 4.

Well those stats are for the first 36 matches of each season only. It's interesting to note that 2000 ended up with an underdog victory rate of 32.4%, which is slightly higher than the overall UD win rate of 31.2%. So things 'normalised' after the first four rounds. What will happen in 2019 I wonder?

 

[Pessimistic]

Didn’t help that clubs like Melbourne essendon Adelaide got talked up.

R1 hawks beat crows for ninth time in ten games, finished higher last year. Adelaide were not true favourites

 

[Asapartyhat]

Stolen from awsome Eagles board (green is wins, reds is losses):

Look at this campaigner this tells a story more goodlie.

 

[guruisatiger]

It's official, there has never been a more unpredictable first four rounds of an AFL season. After four rounds (36 games), 19 underdogs have been victorious at a win rate of 52.78%.

As can be seen in the table below, in the history of AFL betting since 1996, the previously held record of underdogs winning in the first 36 matches of a season was back in 2000, with 47.22%. But this 2019 season has taken the early upsets cake...

AFL Underdog (UD) wins after first 36 matches since 1996
View attachment 655290


What does this mean?
Well, firstly, it means that if you had simply put 10 dollars on the underdog in every match this season, you'd be several hundred dollars ahead (the average underdog winning odds have been 2.85). But, gambling aside, it basically means that season 2019 is thus far an anomaly, and you should keep faith in your tipping ability. If your workplace tipping comp is being led by someone who knows nothing about footy, let them have their time..it probably won't last long!


Paul P Mark

Who and how decides which team is the underdog?

 

[Moquo]

Who and how decides which team is the underdog?

Isn't the underdog the team that Damien Barret tips?

 

[deck]

Stolen from awsome Eagles board (green is wins, reds is losses):

Look at this campaigner this tells a story more goodlie.

That table is skewed until we get at least half way to see where everyone actually stands after playing most the competition.

 

[guruisatiger]

Isn't the underdog the team that Damien Barret tips?

Who's Damien Barrett?

 

[Call Me Cake]

There is a chance, at the end of this round, for clubs 1st to 13th to all be on the same win-loss tally after 5 rounds.

 

[BigVic]

The circle of parity.

 

[Paul P Mark]

Who and how decides which team is the underdog?

Well, the bookies and punters decide - so I have used records of official bookmaker odds.

 

[guruisatiger]

Well, the bookies and punters decide - so I have used records of official bookmaker odds.

Bookies ppppffffttt what the * do they know??