Analysis New Rules Stats

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CaptchaProofBot

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Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
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Comparison of scoring over the last decade (2020 scores adjusted upwards by 25% to allow for shorter quarters) for both the current round and the season up to the current round.

Despite the perception of a more open, faster, higher-scoring game, scoring is actually marginally down on last year's adjusted figure to the same stage of the season.

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 2 average83.882.981.291.298.890.281.882.1102.295.2
Round 2 2021 - % above or below+1.1%+3.3%-8.0%-15.1%-7.1%+2.5%+2.1%-18.0%-11.9%
Round 2 - lowest since2020201919672016201620151967196720122010
Round 2 - highest since2018201820182017201320132014201320082011
Season average to Round 284.484.779.990.0101.293.784.285.697.997.8
Season to Round 2 2021 - % above or below-0.4%+5.6%-6.3%-16.6%-9.9%+0.2%-1.4%-13.8%-13.7%
Season to Round 2 - lowest since2019201919662015201620151967196720122011
Season to Round 2 - highest since2020201820182017200020132014201320082008
 
Last edited:

RUNVS

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Comparison of scoring over the last decade (2020 scores adjusted upwards by 25% to allow for shorter quarters) for both the current round and the season up to the current round.

Despite the perception of a more open, faster, higher-scoring game, scoring is actually marginally down on last year's adjusted figure to the same stage of the season.

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 2 average83.882.981.291.298.890.281.882.1102.295.2
Round 2 2021 - % above or below+1.1%+3.3%-8.0%-15.1%-7.1%+2.5%+2.1%-18.0%-11.9%
Round 2 - lowest since2020201919672016201620151967196720122010
Round 2 - highest since2018201820182017201320132014201320082011
Season average to Round 284.484.779.990.0101.293.784.285.697.997.8
Season to Round 2 2021 - % above or below-0.4%+5.6%-6.3%-16.6%-9.9%+0.2%-1.4%-13.8%-13.7%
Season to Round 2 - lowest since2019201919662015201620151967196720122011
Season to Round 2 - highest since2020201820182017200020132014201320082008
Still a far more open and free-flowing game. Much less congestion makes a much more attractive game.
 

OnlyPowerForever

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Mar 22, 2021
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Comparison of scoring over the last decade (2020 scores adjusted upwards by 25% to allow for shorter quarters) for both the current round and the season up to the current round.

Despite the perception of a more open, faster, higher-scoring game, scoring is actually marginally down on last year's adjusted figure to the same stage of the season.

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 2 average83.882.981.291.298.890.281.882.1102.295.2
Round 2 2021 - % above or below+1.1%+3.3%-8.0%-15.1%-7.1%+2.5%+2.1%-18.0%-11.9%
Round 2 - lowest since2020201919672016201620151967196720122010
Round 2 - highest since2018201820182017201320132014201320082011
Season average to Round 284.484.779.990.0101.293.784.285.697.997.8
Season to Round 2 2021 - % above or below-0.4%+5.6%-6.3%-16.6%-9.9%+0.2%-1.4%-13.8%-13.7%
Season to Round 2 - lowest since2019201919662015201620151967196720122011
Season to Round 2 - highest since2020201820182017200020132014201320082008
Came looking to post this exact analysis after watching tonights game - for all the hype and constant media barrage about a better game, I just didn't see it and I did the numbers to see if I was right. And here it is already!
We're being sold a furphy (not the beer!) because we can run off the mark. And the umpire yelling Stand! instead of Contact!
Look at tonight, teams already tweaking their defensive actions. Only 35 scoring shots for the match.

The only question I had Ron about last year was that Round 1 were full 20 minute quarters weren't they? The calcs you have above correlate to Round 1 at 16 minute quarters. Maybe I've got it wrong.
 

harrythetiger

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Came looking to post this exact analysis after watching tonights game - for all the hype and constant media barrage about a better game, I just didn't see it and I did the numbers to see if I was right. And here it is already!
We're being sold a furphy (not the beer!) because we can run off the mark. And the umpire yelling Stand! instead of Contact!
Look at tonight, teams already tweaking their defensive actions. Only 35 scoring shots for the match.

The only question I had Ron about last year was that Round 1 were full 20 minute quarters weren't they? The calcs you have above correlate to Round 1 at 16 minute quarters. Maybe I've got it wrong.
R1 last year was 16 minutes. They made the change before the season so it was consistent all year.

But agree fully, all the rules do is set the tactics back by a small amount, once teams figure it out games will return to looking exactly the same (except with some remnant cases where we are reminded of the stupidity of the rules introduced, like the occasional 6-6-6 warning).

The only way the current state of the game is permanently superseded is by being beaten by actual counter tactics, not rules.
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
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The only question I had Ron about last year was that Round 1 were full 20 minute quarters weren't they? The calcs you have above correlate to Round 1 at 16 minute quarters. Maybe I've got it wrong.
Ah I'd forgotten completely about that. Have updated.

Will continue to post these updates after each round. I'm expecting the coaches to claw back the gains. Shootouts represent a lack of control and are anathema to them. Younger teams will also probably run out of legs in the back half of the season.
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
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Round 3 scoring update

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 3 average88.173.888.491.184.392.895.689.2105.894.6
Round 3 2021 - % above or below+19.3%-0.3%-3.3%+4.5%-5.1%-7.8%-1.2%-16.7%-6.8%
Round 3 - lowest since2020196720172017199520142014201120122011
Round 3 - highest since2019201920182016201620152013201320002009
Season average to Round 385.681.382.790.495.693.48886.8100.596.7
Season to Round 3 2021 - % above or below+5.2%+3.5%-5.3%-10.4%-8.3%-2.7%-1.3%-14.8%-11.5%
Season to Round 3 - lowest since2020196719672015201620152014199520122011
Season to Round 3 - highest since2018201920182017201320132013201320012009
 

OnlyPowerForever

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Mar 22, 2021
224
357
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Round 3 scoring update

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 3 average88.173.888.491.184.392.895.689.2105.894.6
Round 3 2021 - % above or below+19.3%-0.3%-3.3%+4.5%-5.1%-7.8%-1.2%-16.7%-6.8%
Round 3 - lowest since2020196720172017199520142014201120122011
Round 3 - highest since2019201920182016201620152013201320002009
Season average to Round 385.681.382.790.495.693.48886.8100.596.7
Season to Round 3 2021 - % above or below+5.2%+3.5%-5.3%-10.4%-8.3%-2.7%-1.3%-14.8%-11.5%
Season to Round 3 - lowest since2020196719672015201620152014199520122011
Season to Round 3 - highest since2018201920182017201320132013201320012009
really do appreciate this analysis, as it very much explains that much of what we think we see is different, not really any more.

I'd expect that an analysis of % score kicked by key forwards is way up, and looks to me that midfielders scoring is significantly down.
Goalkicking accuracy doesn't seem to be playing a part between 2019 and this year.
 

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May 12, 2020
79
137
Brisbane
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Richmond
Round 3 scoring update

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 3 average88.173.888.491.184.392.895.689.2105.894.6
Round 3 2021 - % above or below+19.3%-0.3%-3.3%+4.5%-5.1%-7.8%-1.2%-16.7%-6.8%
Round 3 - lowest since2020196720172017199520142014201120122011
Round 3 - highest since2019201920182016201620152013201320002009
Season average to Round 385.681.382.790.495.693.48886.8100.596.7
Season to Round 3 2021 - % above or below+5.2%+3.5%-5.3%-10.4%-8.3%-2.7%-1.3%-14.8%-11.5%
Season to Round 3 - lowest since2020196719672015201620152014199520122011
Season to Round 3 - highest since2018201920182017201320132013201320012009
Love the work mate, thought I'd chip in w/ some of my own graphs:
1617718586165.png

As everyone keeps saying it's rd 3 we know nothing about anything yet and you can see that in the disparity on the 2021 point of the graph. North have had a poor start to the year, but no way they can maintain that form. Anyways, the new rule changes seem to have corrected for the 2018-2020 nose dive (I did adjust the 2020 stats, it really was just that bad a year, seems footy doesn't scale down well to yucky 16 min quarters), hopefully we'll get back up to at least 2017 levels soon (or higher) once North start winning (not that it's all on them).

Couldnt be bothered to go find the full scoring stats, so I merged the avg goals and avg behinds so WARNING: NOT PRECISE, ONLY VAGUE APPROXIMATION OF SCORES:
1617719642237.png

And now some kaleidoscopes (I don't know what the stats are like normally at rd 3 but these are interesting) (apologies bears & fitzroy 4 not including you individually (still in the leage avg stat though) and to clubs in general for atrocious colour scheme, and most of all to adelaide and geelong, who for some reason I have set to the same colour??? if I do these again I'll fix that up (what would really be ideal is if u could choose one of these that looks diff to everything below https://matplotlib.org/stable/gallery/color/named_colors.html, or figure out/teach me how to alternate colours in matplotlib lines)):
1617719992772.png

1617720126783.png


1617720342616.png

1617720390632.png

1617720663623.png

1617720831350.png

Rebounds I'd like some help with, what are they again? Is it better to be higher or lower in them?
The other stats I saw seemed fairly the same to recent times, but that could have just been high variance, I did skim over them after all.

Big :heart: to afltables.com.
 
May 12, 2020
79
137
Brisbane
AFL Club
Richmond
Love the work mate, thought I'd chip in w/ some of my own graphs:
View attachment 1095802
As everyone keeps saying it's rd 3 we know nothing about anything yet and you can see that in the disparity on the 2021 point of the graph. North have had a poor start to the year, but no way they can maintain that form. Anyways, the new rule changes seem to have corrected for the 2018-2020 nose dive (I did adjust the 2020 stats, it really was just that bad a year, seems footy doesn't scale down well to yucky 16 min quarters), hopefully we'll get back up to at least 2017 levels soon (or higher) once North start winning (not that it's all on them).

Couldnt be bothered to go find the full scoring stats, so I merged the avg goals and avg behinds so WARNING: NOT PRECISE, ONLY VAGUE APPROXIMATION OF SCORES:
View attachment 1095806
And now some kaleidoscopes (I don't know what the stats are like normally at rd 3 but these are interesting) (apologies bears & fitzroy 4 not including you individually (still in the leage avg stat though) and to clubs in general for atrocious colour scheme, and most of all to adelaide and geelong, who for some reason I have set to the same colour??? if I do these again I'll fix that up (what would really be ideal is if u could choose one of these that looks diff to everything below https://matplotlib.org/stable/gallery/color/named_colors.html, or figure out/teach me how to alternate colours in matplotlib lines)):
View attachment 1095808
View attachment 1095809

View attachment 1095810
View attachment 1095811
View attachment 1095812
View attachment 1095813
Rebounds I'd like some help with, what are they again? Is it better to be higher or lower in them?
The other stats I saw seemed fairly the same to recent times, but that could have just been high variance, I did skim over them after all.

Big :heart: to afltables.com.
oh shoot, lions and goldcoast same colour too, my bad.
 

hawkman

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Jun 7, 2007
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Round 3 scoring update

Year20212020*20192018201720162015201420132012
Round 3 average88.173.888.491.184.392.895.689.2105.894.6
Round 3 2021 - % above or below+19.3%-0.3%-3.3%+4.5%-5.1%-7.8%-1.2%-16.7%-6.8%
Round 3 - lowest since2020196720172017199520142014201120122011
Round 3 - highest since2019201920182016201620152013201320002009
Season average to Round 385.681.382.790.495.693.48886.8100.596.7
Season to Round 3 2021 - % above or below+5.2%+3.5%-5.3%-10.4%-8.3%-2.7%-1.3%-14.8%-11.5%
Season to Round 3 - lowest since2020196719672015201620152014199520122011
Season to Round 3 - highest since2018201920182017201320132013201320012009
Do you have percentage differences in scoring shots?
I noticed on AFL tables that accuracy is sitting at 51.79% which would be the lowest this century if it continued for the season
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
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Do you have percentage differences in scoring shots?
I noticed on AFL tables that accuracy is sitting at 51.79% which would be the lowest this century if it continued for the season
Can you link to the the page with this figure? There's more than one way to measure accuracy.
 

hawkman

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Can you link to the the page with this figure? There's more than one way to measure accuracy.
Just goals and behinds as shown at the bottom of the ladder


Currently at 51.8%, it hasn't been below 52% over the entire H&A season since 1990. Just working it out it looks like increasing accuracy by 1% would only increase scoring by just over 1 point a game so not really a major influence
 

OnlyPowerForever

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Mar 22, 2021
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Just goals and behinds as shown at the bottom of the ladder


Currently at 51.8%, it hasn't been below 52% over the entire H&A season since 1990. Just working it out it looks like increasing accuracy by 1% would only increase scoring by just over 1 point a game so not really a major influence
Sydney Richmond game had 9 posters in the one game? That's about 0.7% of all scores!
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
34,157
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Just goals and behinds as shown at the bottom of the ladder


Currently at 51.8%, it hasn't been below 52% over the entire H&A season since 1990. Just working it out it looks like increasing accuracy by 1% would only increase scoring by just over 1 point a game so not really a major influence
Purely on G:B (whether rushed or not):

Year2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
Round 3 accuracy (%)55.348.753.852.948.553.354.753.755.654.5
Round 3 2021 - above or below+13.6%+2.8%+4.6%_1.4%+3.9%+1.2%+3.1%-0.4%+1.6%
Round 3 - worst since2020201720182017201020112014201120122011
Round 3 - best since2013201920152016201620152013201320032008
Season accuracy to Round 3 (%)51.854.552.253.153.952.753.353.253.754.0
Season to Round 3 2021 - above or below-4.9%-0.8%-2.5%-4.0%-1.7%-2.9%-2.6%-3.5%-4.1%
Season to Round 3 - worst since2011201920112016201620112014201120112011
Season to Round 3 - best since2020200920182017201220152013201320122009

2011 to Round 3 was 50.9%, 2010 50.4%. They're the lowest since 1995 (49.1%).
 
Last edited:

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
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Round 4 scoring update

Year2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
Round 4 average78.274.775.380.392.190.982.086.394.378.6
Round 4 2021 - % above or below+4.7%+3.8%-2.6%-15.0%-13.9%-4.6%-9.3%-17.1%-0.4%
Round 4 - lowest since2020196519652012201620152012201220122001
Round 4 - highest since2018201920182017201320132014201320082011
Season average to Round 483.879.680.987.894.792.886.586.799.092.2
Season to Round 4 2021 - % above or below+5.2%+3.6%-4.6%-11.5%-9.7%-3.1%-3.3%-15.4%-9.1%
Season to Round 4 - lowest since2020196719672015201620151968196820122011
Season to Round 4 - highest since2018201920182017201320132014201320082009
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
34,157
34,208
Melbourne
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Richmond
Crowdwatch

Year2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
Round 4 average22,7232,80036,37231,55934,55930,95634,93930,18532,23133,441
Round 4 2021 - % above or below+712%-38%-28%-34%-27%-35%-25%-29%-32%
Round 4 - lowest since (excluding 2020)1991192020182016201620142014200220072007
Round 4 - highest since2019201920112017201520152011201320122011
Season average to Round 427,4101,91638,32138,67436,61735,92435,13532,24536,07635,614
Season to Round 4 2021 - % above or below+1331%-28%-29%-25%-24%-22%-15%-24%-23%
Season to Round 4 - lowest since (excluding 2020)1992192020172017201620152014200020122006
Season to Round 4 - highest since2019201920182010201120132013201320112011
 

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