Environment Newsin

[Upgrayedd]

I think people are reading into the possibility of WW3 too much

Im getting more and more convinced that china right now if North Korea got shat on would just stay out of it and pick up the pieces later and enjoy more control over the mineral rich state

 

[exe ex machina]

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[neroblack]

Communist brothers in arms they are would be.

China wont sit back

There is no benefit whatsoever to China in supporting North Korea, and China know this. If you think otherwise, please explain it.

 

[Tulip]

Communist brothers in arms they are would be.

China wont sit back

China have just joined UN action condemning North Korea's recent moves.

They stand to gain nothing from fighting for a country like North Korea.

 

[raven echo]

If war was to break out, China won't want some pro-America regime taking over in North Korea.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

If war was to break out, China won't want some pro-America regime taking over in North Korea.

No, but that doesn't equate to them siding with the current regime either.

 

[raven echo]

No, but that doesn't equate to them siding with the current regime either.

That's true. If anything I think China would be putting a lot of back door pressure on North Korean regime to calm the situation.

 

[moses]

I think it's nothing more that chest beating from North Korea. They are broke and starving, surely they are not that stupid as to start a conflict with the US and Sth Korea.

 

[exe ex machina]

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[Quokka]

If war was to break out, China won't want some pro-America regime taking over in North Korea.

And the last thing the US want is another country to get stuck in but if North Korea did do something really really really stupid China might be willing to publicly stomp and grumble while the US does a quick Shock and Awe retread, then the US tells everyone they think there needs to be a regional solution and throws the keys to china on their way home.

Win - Win.... Unless you're Korean, North or South.

 

[Atley]

 

[Quokka]

- China knows the US wants an excuse to go to war with them
- That also counts as a reason why China wont side with Nth Korea
- Still, China has flexed against the US in rhetoric in the recent past, they're not buddy-buddies with the US by any means
- Communist brothers in arms, it's always going to go to the aid of a communist nation, like Russia did in the past.
- China is not afraid of challenging the US, if something were to happen in the region, the US aggressing, or upsetting China, occupying the region, etc, they wont sit back, and thus could be put in a situation of fighting against US, not specifically fighting for Nth Korea.
- key phrase, 'in times of war' things change, gloves come off, treaties, etc rubbished

China won't back up North Korea imo even if North Korea did do something astonishingly stupid like attacking America. They have nothing to gain by it, America is a lot more worried about China than China is about America and when you're not running elections every few years you've got the luxury of thinking long term. I wouldn't be surprised if China is ok with sitting tight for a 100 years or so on the off chance America implodes. At any rate about the only way China could give up it's current advantage is by buying into a military conflict with America, it's just not going to happen.

I still think North Korea will just keep pushing and niggling but even if they did attack outright it's going to be a localized conflict (not that that wouldn't be bad enough), China all but sat out the first world war and received support from America (and its allies) in the second, it's sure as hell not going to start a third because of a stray dog barking next door.

 

[xXJawsaXx]

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Without an adequate supply of coke and mentos, it'll take the North months to get a single rocket off the ground" Jesse Lockhart (CNN reporter).

From the analysis that I have read and also the opinions of a high level defector, the North Korean "government" is actually terrified of the prospect of war, even though they seem to be painting themselves into a corner. All out war would eventually mean the end of the current regime.

What they want is a full peace treaty with the US, which never happened post Korean war and therefore assurances the west will not mount an attack militarily in the future.

From there they want to work towards the cessation or relaxation of sanctions.

The problem is that the regime has no other cards to play and in the past threats have been somewhat effective.

 

[exe ex machina]

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[Super Hans]

 

[Iason]

- China knows the US wants an excuse to go to war with them

Bahahahahhahahahahahaahahaahhahahahahahahahahhhahahahaha

Stop it now. Please.

 

[Catfish Alley]

It appears to me there are a lot of people not concerned by this...

If people are concerned, what do you suggest they do??

 

[Illinois Nazi]

That would be better if the person who made it knew the word is warmonger, not mongler.

 

[exe ex machina]

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[Run n Spread]

The US role is intriguing. They may mass their soldiers at the border as a show of force and to fight a small outbreak, for an emergency response etc but they simply do not have the funds or manpower to fight another prolonged war imo.

North Korea are broke themselves, so really begs the question who benefits from an all out war and who would fund it.

I doubt the Chinese are interested in a full scale war either. Won't do them any good having a nuke light up Pyongyang. Also need to keep major economies onside less their development stall. Yet they are the ones keeping North Korea's military afloat to keep a communistic presence on the peninsula. (North Korea is a military dictatorship. Whatever puppet is in charge is secondary to the real power of the military) A full scale capitalist Korea could see the Communist Party's cosy set up in China uncomfortable.

 

[exe ex machina]

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[nicky]

 

[Run n Spread]

Very good thinking and analysis Run n Spread.

Thanks. My prediction thou is that I can't help thinking China are playing a long game but have gone high risk to expedite the process. They themselves have had a gutful of North Korea's crap and are fed up having to bankroll them. Thus they use the North as a proxy to scare the S&%% out of the US, South Korea and Japan and weakening them where possible before bumping off Kim Jong un cutting the cord of their military and coming in as the only saviour. Then install a puppet regime or take over themselves, use the 1.2 million brainwashed soldiers for their ends and to stabalise any chaos and utilise North Korean resources. Fixes their economic slowdown and have their PR industry working frantically to paint themselves as saviours. US may lift the sanctions then as frankly they need the business and the money flows to China indirectly rather than the other way.

Only realistic situation I can think of. Think of the Arab Spring in reverse. The US was prepared to cop domestic suppression and brutality of dictators to locals if business flowed. But when it stopped they would remove the dictator. China holds the whip hand here as they bankroll the powers of North Korea.

 

[exe ex machina]

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