Prediction Next 4 Games

[Cuzz09]

Next 4:

North
Adelaide
StKilda
Collingwood

You really wouldnt want an easier run.

But we know we're gonna make tough work of things.

Heart: 4/4
head: 2/4 (away losses)

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[KERRPOW]

Next 4:

North
Adelaide
StKilda
Collingwood

You really wouldnt want an easier run.

But we know we're gonna make tough work of things.

Heart: 4/4
head: 2/4 (away losses)

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Im setting the bar real low 1/3.

 

[Cuzz09]

Im setting the bar real low 1/3.

Yeah Im actually quite unsure about tomorrow night. Feels bad vibey

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[KERRPOW]

Yeah Im actually quite unsure about tomorrow night. Feels bad vibey

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Nah we will win that.

If we lose just put a line through this season

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

I haven’t conveniently left out anything. It’s the AFL era. I can go back to 1857 if you’d like, though our numbers won’t change much.

Premierships from finals conversion rate is an odd benchmark. It’s better to miss finals for 29 years but then win a flag in the 30th for a 100% conversion rate?

Hawthorn were on the brink of being merged out of existence, Brisbane have been as bad as any club in football for the majority of their existence bar a dominant five year window (more wooden spoons than flags for what it’s worth) and Richmond…jeez let’s not. Richmond were a punchline for 25 years before coming good in the last few, to the tune of…fewer flags than we have. By no metric has Richmond had a better 30 years than we have, recency bias aside.

We make finals more than anyone - that’s a good yardstick for being a quality team.

We win flags more often than all teams bars one. Since we’ve existed, we’ve won more flags than eight teams combined. Talk to their fanbases about their definition of mediocrity.

By any metric that makes actual sense, we’ve been as dominant as anyone since inception.

Wanting more isn’t a bad thing. Pretending what we’ve delivered has been sub par is embarrassing.

You have your interpretation, I have mine. We won't win a premiership this year and that it will make it four premierships out of 34 years. Wow.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

You have your interpretation, I have mine. We won't win a premiership this year and that it will make it four premierships out of 34 years. Wow.

Premierships in the 34 years since we joined the comp

Hawthorn: 7
West Coast: 4
Brisbane: 3
Geelong: 3
Richmond: 3
Adelaide: 2
Carlton: 2
Collingwood: 2
Essendon: 2
North: 2
Sydney: 2
Bulldogs: 1
Port: 1
Melbourne, Saints, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Giants: 0

So since we’ve existed, only Hawthorn has won more flags.

But if you’re not second, you’re last I guess

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Premierships from finals conversion rate is an odd benchmark. It’s better to miss finals for 29 years but then win a flag in the 30th for a 100% conversion rate?

I’ve interviewed thousands of professional athletes and they all say the premierships from finals appearances ratio is the best benchmark.

 

[Cuzz09]

premierships is all that matters.

At the end of the day you could win 9 spoons in a row and if you win a flag in your 10th year its just as good as if you win 1 flag and 9 years of top 4.

But your memberships etc may struggle before that 1 flag


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[Karim Abdul Yeo]

You have your interpretation, I have mine. We won't win a premiership this year and that it will make it four premierships out of 34 years. Wow.

Purely on face value and stats winning a flag once every 8.5 years is an exceptional outcome. If you dig deeper taking into account we are only 34 years in the system if we keep it up after 120 years then it is a fair assessment. I still feel like we blew few opportunities in the 90's and also early 2000. we should be sitting on 6 maybe even 7 as I thought 15 was truly ours and we blew it in GF to a team that traveled twice to Perth with an aging list and still destroyed us. Overall management is going to keep harping about 1 in 8.5 as a get-away jail card excuse.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Purely on face value and stats winning a flag once every 8.5 years is an exceptional outcome. If you dig deeper taking into account we are only 34 years in the system if we keep it up after 120 years then it is a fair assessment. I still feel like we blew few opportunities in the 90's and also early 2000. we should be sitting on 6 maybe even 7 as I thought 15 was truly ours and we blew it in GF to a team that traveled twice to Perth with an aging list and still destroyed us. Overall management is going to keep harping about 1 in 8.5 as a get-away jail card excuse.

The excuse being we’ve won more in our time than every club bar one? Works for me.

There’s always individual seasons that could/should have gone better. Did we underachieve in instances? Absolutely. Did we overachieve in others - certainly. 2011 we made a prelim after winning the spoon the year before. That to me shows the resolve of a quality club that demands excellence. It’s not a flag, but apparently winning more flags than everyone else doesn’t count for success either so then what does?

The baby Bombers “only” won one. Port “only” won one. Sydney’s mid 2000s side “only” won one too. The 2010s Saints won none. GWS haven’t won any despite thread after thread of “GWS dynasty incoming” when they were founded. Geelong “only” won two with their terrific list. Luke Edwards wasn’t walking when Essendon last won a final let alone a flag. Richmond are rolling now but their fans had to endure decades of being a joke of a club with decade long finals droughts to reach this point. Fremantle.

If flags are the metric of success, we’re successful. If consistent quality is the metric of success, we’re successful.

If running the gauntlet and smashing out a flag every three years is the metric of success, then you’re unrealistic as to the rigours of professional sport and severely underestimating the difficulty in winning one let alone multiple.

We don’t have a god given right to win every season just because this is the team we chose. People lose sight of just how terrible most other fan bases have it and how quickly they would trade places with us. We’re a powerhouse on (and off) the field in a way nobody else has been able to replicate since we came to be. Hawks on field success is the only one that comes remotely close to ours, and their fans had to fight off an attempted merger in the off field department.

Give me flags over off field success, but to compare our situation to any other clubs and then to pretend it’s not the pinnacle of situations is just self pity for the sake of it.

 

[Cuzz09]

Over our history weve been pretty good.

History says we'll at least make another GF OR 2 before 2030.

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[BlueandGoldforever]

The excuse being we’ve won more in our time than every club bar one? Works for me.

There’s always individual seasons that could/should have gone better. Did we underachieve in instances? Absolutely. Did we overachieve in others - certainly. 2011 we made a prelim after winning the spoon the year before. That to me shows the resolve of a quality club that demands excellence. It’s not a flag, but apparently winning more flags than everyone else doesn’t count for success either so then what does?

The baby Bombers “only” won one. Port “only” won one. Sydney’s mid 2000s side “only” won one too. The 2010s Saints won none. GWS haven’t won any despite thread after thread of “GWS dynasty incoming” when they were founded. Geelong “only” won two with their terrific list. Luke Edwards wasn’t walking when Essendon last won a final let alone a flag. Richmond are rolling now but their fans had to endure decades of being a joke of a club with decade long finals droughts to reach this point. Fremantle.

If flags are the metric of success, we’re successful. If consistent quality is the metric of success, we’re successful.

If running the gauntlet and smashing out a flag every three years is the metric of success, then you’re unrealistic as to the rigours of professional sport and severely underestimating the difficulty in winning one let alone multiple.

We don’t have a god given right to win every season just because this is the team we chose. People lose sight of just how terrible most other fan bases have it and how quickly they would trade places with us. We’re a powerhouse on (and off) the field in a way nobody else has been able to replicate since we came to be. Hawks on field success is the only one that comes remotely close to ours, and their fans had to fight off an attempted merger in the off field department.

Give me flags over off field success, but to compare our situation to any other clubs and then to pretend it’s not the pinnacle of situations is just self pity for the sake of it.

I think you are the only one feeling sorry for yourself.

 

[Schtinker]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is. Just wallpapering over the cracks.

 

[Tugga27]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is. Just wallpapering over the cracks.

No they/we won't.

 

[Barrybran]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is. Just wallpapering over the cracks.

I feel the same way about this week. 50-point win, all will be forgotten and we won't learn a thing.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is.

No one is going to be saying that.

 

[KERRPOW]

I feel the same way about this week. 50-point win, all will be forgotten and we won't learn a thing.

Nah, i think we will learn not to get carried away. It would be a good win in isolation but we need to do it against the top teams.

 

[ioppolo]

Given tomorrow's forecast, nothing is set in stone here.

 

[woosha24]

Sh*t ive just realised that, if we're to guarantee ourselves a finals berth, we can only drop a max of 2 more games this season.

Bloody hell...

 

[Cuzz09]

I cant see anyone kicking 50 points tomorrow let alone winning by 50.

Take any win by any margin

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[DanWCE]

There's some great shots being fired in this thread today. Bloody good stuff.

 

[Cuzz09]

Sh*t ive just realised that, if we're to guarantee ourselves a finals berth, we can only drop a max of 2 more games this season.

Bloody hell...

If we make it we make it.

If we miss it might fast track some changes which might be a good thing.

But obviously everyone wants to make the 8.

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[Broken_Chairs]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is. Just wallpapering over the cracks.

We win - it says absolutely nothing
We lose - disasterous & season (& dare say a couple of careers) over

Miserable game to watch tbh

 

[HoneyBadger35]

We will win this week against the bottom team. Everyone will be saying how we've turned it around and what a marvelous coach Adam Simpson is. Just wallpapering over the cracks.

If we win by 20 goals, nobody will care. This game will be newsworthy for a loss or a significant injury only, a one point or 100 point win means nothing other than a bit of breathing room on the chasing pack.

and I’m the resident “apologist” saying that.

 

[BrotherDodge]

My favourite measure of our success in the AFL era is that with flags in 1992, 2006, and 2018 we're the only club to win a premiership with three completely different generations of players.
We didn't assemble one super squad and then suck for decades like Richmond, Brisbane etc, we just keep coming. It must give other teams the shits.