Prediction Next Coach Sacked

[mick500]

What's his name from Carlton. The little fella. Bolton I think? Next to go if Carlton have a clue.

Freo would have to be losing patience with Lyon as well.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Not a coach in the comp would've done better than last with the Saints list in his first year. 6.5 wins the year after was decent as well. 9th a very good effort as well and 11th not really all that much of a drop from the year before.

If anything Richardson overachieved in his first few years and that's both reason for some optimism - he can create a team that gives good effort and wins some games - and cause to be concerned because in hindsight the Saints drop off looks really obvious.

Riewoldt and Montagna get wound up possibly slightly early but likely on time. Then all of a sudden there's a leadership vaccuum. The recruiters haven't landed a star. Serviceable role players like Nathan Brown and Mav Weller quickly become dead weight. Injured players struggle to get back involved in the side. Promising youngsters plateau without the right base.

There's some similarities with Richmond under Hardwick where he overachieved for a number of years and then when the talent started getting past it's used by date the team fell in a hole. They played some kids for a year, refreshed the joint with new coaching and admin, added some great recruits and bounced up way higher than they had been before. The biggest difference between Richmond and a team like St Kilda is the Tigers had 4 superstars, 2 of which were obvious in Dusty and Rance, 2 in Cotch and Riewoldt hiding in plain sight. Jack Steven might fit the latter category and Gresham just maybe somewhere near that, but I don't think there's a Rance and Dusty at the Saints.

So your hope is that Richo can coach and showed that in his first few years but the pressure of AFL coaching meant he couldn't see the forrest for the trees and devalued his side by cobbling role players. A fresh look with new assistants and a bunch of fresh players with talent could see the Saints rebound quickly.

I think I posted somewhere here that I believe Richo overachieved in 2016 but that may have been because of the draw. There’s a great site called “the squiggle” that measures draw difficulty not only on who you play and when and where but measures the form lines to work out the optimal time to play teams and the worst times to play them. Anyway 2016 our draw was rated one of the easiest of the last five years.

I knew we wouldn’t make finals in 2017 when everyone said we would because I just didn’t see the talent (plus that draw was actually difficult) but I didn’t foresee us crashing like we did last year.

I tend to joke a bit that we will win the wooden spoon this year but honestly I cannot see another team atm with a list in worse shape than us. We really need to start from scratch though.

The biggest trouble with us is we have too many unknowns on our team. Billings, Lonie, Paddy, Longer, to name a few all have shown glimpses of potential but none of them have had a breakout season and at some point we’ve been expecting them to.

 

[tonygeeks]

I think I posted somewhere here that I believe Richo overachieved in 2016 but that may have been because of the draw. There’s a great site called “the squiggle” that measures draw difficulty not only on who you play and when and where but measures the form lines to work out the optimal time to play teams and the worst times to play them. Anyway 2016 our draw was rated one of the easiest of the last five years.

I knew we wouldn’t make finals in 2017 when everyone said we would because I just didn’t see the talent (plus that draw was actually difficult) but I didn’t foresee us crashing like we did last year.

I tend to joke a bit that we will win the wooden spoon this year but honestly I cannot see another team atm with a list in worse shape than us. We really need to start from scratch though.

The biggest trouble with us is we have too many unknowns on our team. Billings, Lonie, Paddy, Longer, to name a few all have shown glimpses of potential but none of them have had a breakout season and at some point we’ve been expecting them to.

Yeah ' self scouting ' they call it in the NFL , who do you keep , who do you trade and who do you pay the big bucks to

I know those guys see it as just as important as drafting , I suppose it's becoming more important here too Wingard , Polec and Sheil were all players the original club probably could have kept but decided not to


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Yeah ' self scouting ' they call it in the NFL , who do you keep , who do you trade and who do you pay the big bucks to

I know those guys see it as just as important as drafting , I suppose it's becoming more important here too Wingard , Polec and Sheil were all players the original club probably could have kept but decided not to


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

We didn't decide not to keep Shiel though, or Lobb. Both were wanted long term. They indicated they intended to leave when they reached FA. The club indicated last year was a good time to choose a club and a trade would be attempted.

 

[LordLucifer]

What's his name from Carlton. The little fella. Bolton I think? Next to go if Carlton have a clue.

Freo would have to be losing patience with Lyon as well.

A new coach gets handed a woeful list and then has to endure a total rebuild which results in 3/4's of the players being under 22yo and you think the coach should be given the flick ??

When, and only when, he has a decent gaggle of mature senior players at his disposal can you then make full judgement on his tenure.

 

[tonygeeks]

We didn't decide not to keep Shiel though, or Lobb. Both were wanted long term. They indicated they intended to leave when they reached FA. The club indicated last year was a good time to choose a club and a trade would be attempted.

Fair enough , I thought you could have kept him long term if your cap wasn't so tight and you didn't have one eye on Kelly and Cogs for next year


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Fair enough , I thought you could have kept him long term if your cap wasn't so tight and you didn't have one eye on Kelly and Cogs for next year


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Leon said after the SF that he'd be very disappointed if Shiel left in response to a question at the presser. It's also likely Shiel and Lobb were told what we could pay next time though, I think.

 

[Davey33]

If Richardson had even the slightest ambition of getting another top gig he wouldn't let that happen.

If he is content to go back to being an assistant forever then sure, he might just soak up the paycheck and less responsibility but even then, there is very little chance. It'd be a very awkward situation. Nah, wouldn't happen.

i dont think richardson will be getting another top gig after this if he fails with the Saints.

why would he?
even proven coaches at the top level struggle to get a 2nd chance

 

[david addison]

Apparently there's a 'sack chris scott' facebook page. I think it's the same person who put up a 'sack buckley' page in 2017. Every year he picks a different coach to prey on. I'm joking. It's two different people, and they're good friends. More than friends. They've made a gay suicide pact if there's no coach sackings this year. Why can't they go to work on me. I've been trying to get sacked from my shitty job for years. Nothing works. It seems like every time I stuff up, I get promoted. I work for the AFL.

 

[Jess Solero]

Left for a retirement package at St Kilda. Not the same thing

Seems you are wrong there - post on his daughters facebook.

 

[Monkey King]

What's his name from Carlton. The little fella. Bolton I think? Next to go if Carlton have a clue.

You sound like a credible source

 

[mick500]

You sound like a credible source

I don't spend much time keeping up on the irrelevant clubs. I just know Bolton's time is numbered.

 

[Monkey King]

I don't spend much time keeping up on the irrelevant clubs. I just know Bolton's time is numbered.

Apparently not; and ... apparently not.

 

[WestCoastLeagle]

1. Bolton. 2. Hinky Winky

 

[Jess Solero]

They made the grand final and you consider them unsuccessful losers. I've heard it all. Those are quality players who played very very important roles. Only on big footy...

There is only one game you need to win. Coming second means you lost. You weren’t good enough. You lost, just like the rest of the clubs. Better luck next year Buckley! They can be quality players they can be in the GF but if you lose it the season means nothing season over! They play all year to win one game and they couldn’t do it just the same as Carlton!

 

[beerbandit]

Buckley of course!!

 

[McRobie]

Longmire. Get out.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Longmire. Get out.

If Longmire were to go would the Swans appoint another with in the coaching staff or get some one from outside the Swans?

 

[gbatman]

There is only one game you need to win. Coming second means you lost. You weren’t good enough. You lost, just like the rest of the clubs. Better luck next year Buckley! They can be quality players they can be in the GF but if you lose it the season means nothing season over! They play all year to win one game and they couldn’t do it just the same as Carlton!

So you're saying that there were 17 teams in the competition who are unsuccessful teams? Riiiiight. I'm guessing everyone on here who is not at the very top of their trade in their careers is unsuccessful too? It's an interesting concept, if you aren't at the very top of something or the very best of something you are not successful?

 

[Freomaniac]

What's his name from Carlton. The little fella. Bolton I think? Next to go if Carlton have a clue.

Freo would have to be losing patience with Lyon as well.

Far from it. Freo like the Saints, have butchered most of their 1st round picks from 2007-16. So Ross Lyon isn't entirely at fault. He has played the youth though.

 

[McRobie]

If Longmire were to go would the Swans appoint another with in the coaching staff or get some one from outside the Swans?

Hard to say mate, in all honesty he’s prob not going anywhere however I’m sick of his vanilla gamemplan.

 

[LFTWNG11]

When, and only when, he has a decent gaggle of mature senior players at his disposal can you then make full judgement on his tenure.

So we are locking BB in for another 3-4 years then? That's how long it will take to get a decent gaggle of mature senior players in at the club given our current predicament.

 

[LordLucifer]

So we are locking BB in for another 3-4 years then? That's how long it will take to get a decent gaggle of mature senior players in at the club given our current predicament.

3-4 years, exactly right !!

No coach in history could have done any better with the list he has had to work with.

 

[mick500]

Far from it. Freo like the Saints, have butchered most of their 1st round picks from 2007-16. So Ross Lyon isn't entirely at fault. He has played the youth though.

At what point do you say "This is the team ross Lyon drafted, selected and wants"? I would say it's been going for 3 years, if you are still in the same position after 2020, the real pressure will be in 2021 for him if you buy into it not being "his" team until after 2016.

 

[70lethal]

I'd love to see this kind of thread from a historical perspective. Names like Buckley and Hardwick would have been very popular. I'm just thinking there will be no coaching changes. Clubs are very willing to choose a coach and stick with them for the long term. I think what fans don't realise and what footy clubs do realise is that the footy environment has changed and the coach has less responsibility than they have ever had. Things are broken down into different areas and structured at footy clubs these days and when things go wrong they tend to identify these areas and focus on fixing these and reviews find it's mostly never the coaching. This isn't the only thing which has changed, what was a 4 - 6 year rebuild 10 or 15 years ago is not a 6-7 year rebuild so clubs will hold the course unless of course someone really good comes along.

This is an era where less public profile people are going to get turned over. We're more likely to see recruiting, high performance, assistant coaching, medical and development people turned over. I just can't see any of the coaches losing their positions. I can see significant changes in other departments. I think the era of the team is playing poorly and we are losing lets sack the coach is dead. I think Carlton going on the path it has has signified the end of that outdated way of thinking. St Kilda seem to be on board with modern footy and have made mention of bolstering the people around Richardson.

I think the modern fan struggles to get an understanding of the modern game. They see teams playing badly and immediately go the game plan yet fail to see that perhaps that team is just flat out getting beaten. Out run, out muscled and out possessed so they adapt to stem the bleeding.

The truth is, anyone could walk into one of the really well staffed and operated clubs and win. Chris Scott has proved that by winning the flag at Geelong. You go to a club that can provide you with a list of really good players, fitness staff and has built a good culture then even the most inexperienced and under qualified of coaches will be successful. Clubs know this now. The over importance of the coach died in the early 2000s, it just took a lot of clubs and fans to realise this, in 2018 it is completely dead.

Mark Neeld?